Top 25 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. *This post was updated with prospects acquired in various offseason trades (McCutchen, Cole) after its initial publication*

60 FV Prospects

Aside from a May back injury that sidelined him for a month, Keller had a successful 2017 and reached Double-A in August. He struck out 116 hitters in 116 innings, against just 32 walks, while continuing his career-long avoidance of the home run. He has surrendered just 13 homers in 317 career innings. The foundation of Keller’s profile is grounded in his fastball and fastball command. He was throwing only in the upper 80s the fall before his senior year of high school, but Keller’s velocity began to increase as the draft approached, and it has continued to do so. His fastball now sits 93-96 and touches 97.

Keller challenges hitters with his fastball in any count and features polished command to both sides of the plate. He projects to have plus-plus command at peak. His curveball has picturesque shape and depth but doesn’t miss as many bats as one might expect, instead operating as another way of generating ground balls. It’s a difficult pitch to square up and also projects to plus. Keller’s below-average changeup is firm and lacks movement. His long, stiff arm swing makes it difficult to project on the changeup, nor are scouts optimistic about it becoming an impact pitch.

Some think Keller’s command of his fastball and breaking ball will be enough to mitigate any platoon issues he might otherwise experience without a good change (a la Chris Carpenter), but others think he needs a better third pitch just to navigate a lineup multiple times. I’m bullish on Keller’s future despite his incomplete profile because he does everything else very well. He probably won’t accrue high-end strikeout totals, and instead projects as an efficient, ground-ball-generating No. 3 starter.

KATOH: 3.5 WAR

55 FV Prospects

Another season, another hamstring injury for Meadows. It was his fourth in as many years and cost him the final week of June and all of July. He spent the first half of August rehabbing his way back to Indianapolis. Once there, he played all of seven games before an oblique injury ended his season, Meadows’ second consecutive season-ending oblique strain. In parts of five pro seasons, Meadows has played in excess of 100 games just once, but he had always performed despite inconsistent playing time until his stay at Triple-A in 2017.

Meadows is still just 22 and will probably be the youngest player on Indianapolis’s roster again next season, so for now, let’s ignore what he’s done in limited time at Triple-A and give him time to work through his first-ever baseball failures. Part of Meadows’ attempt to deal with a poor first two months was to re-work his swing as he came back from injury. He ditched the stance and stride that made him successful throughout the low minors and opened his stance up, presumably to see the ball better. Now he’s just closing off his front side before contact and getting very little from his lower half.

Meadows has long relied on his wrists and hand strength to generate power and has never utilized a big leg kick or any other mechanical means to supplement his power output, but this new approach is excessively limiting. I’d like to see him return to what made him so good for so long and utilize his natural bat speed and hand-eye coordination as a means of spraying hard, doubles contact all over the field while opportunistically turning on balls down and in for the occasional home run. If he can, then he continues to project as a star center fielder — he’s still a plus runner despite the hamstring issues — with a plus hit tool and more power than his raw homer totals suggest.

KATOH: 5.7 WAR

50 FV Prospects

Baz had among the most electric stuff in the 2017 draft. He was up to 98 in the spring, sitting in the mid-90s for most of his starts while also producing the best fastball spin rates in the draft class. Baz can also spin a power breaking ball and throw a nasty cutter. Both project to plus, as does his fastball, though some scouts noted his heater was more hittable than they anticipated given its velocity.

Baz is a tightly wound, but athletic, 6-foot-3 with a good build and room for more weight as he ages. His head-whacking delivery toes the line between explosive and erratic, and he sometimes struggles to throw strikes. That will need to improve for Baz to avoid an eventual move to the bullpen. Most scouts believe in the athleticism (Baz also played the infield in high school) enough to project starter’s command but acknowledge that there is relief risk here. Even if that’s where Baz ends up, his stuff is such that he’s a likely late-inning arm. If he develops average or better command he’s probably an All-Star.

KATOH: 0.7 WAR

As a junior at UNC, Moran was on the short list of candidates considered by Houston for the top pick of the 2013 draft. He ultimately fell to Miami at 6th overall and signed for $3.5 million. He began the 2014 season on the DL due to an MCL sprain and was traded to Houston that summer as part of a package (that also included Jake Marisnick and Francis Martes) for Jarred Cosart.

Pro reports on Moran at the time were not glowing. His approach had gone backward and his bat was often late into the zone. Moran’s feel to hit was such that it allowed him to continue making plenty of contact despite his tardiness, but it hurt his power output. Moran wouldn’t slug over .400 for a full season until 2017, when he closed his stance and quieted some pre-swing movement in his hands. The adjustment led to increased power in 2017 that, while his Triple-A stats were likely inflated by the PCL hitting environment, scouts think is legitimate.

Moran projects to be an above-average hitter with average game power. At third base, his hands and arm are above-average but his range is below. Moran has dealt with several freak injuries (He’s had two facial injuries caused by baseballs and the aforementioned MCL issue) so perhaps there’s still some development remaining here despite his advanced age. He projects as an average regular who should get lots of playing time in 2018.

Tucker is a big-framed 6-foot-3, 185, and is built like Manny Machado was at the same age. Tucker isn’t quite that twitchy, nor as athletic, but he is a plus runner underway and agile for his size, affording him average lateral range at short despite a middling first step. The development of Tucker’s arm strength, which had slowly been improving since 2015 labrum surgery, seems to have plateaued, with scouts grading it as a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scale. That’s still enough to project him at shortstop, even if he’s just a 45 or 50 glove there at peak. Because arm strength and a good first step are of profound importance at third base, Tucker probably moves to second base in the event that he’s pushed off of short.

Tucker has better feel to hit from the left side, where he possesses superior bat control and a more graceful, controlled cut. Most of his in-game power comes from his hands/wrists with little coming from Tucker’s lower half. Combined with a patient, contact-first approach to hitting, that leads to lots of doubles down the line and to the right-center gap. He projects to clear the league-average shortstop hitting line of .260/.315/.407, and he could be an above-average regular if he grows into a bit more power. He was slated to pick up at-bats at the end of the year in the Arizona Fall League, but a broken thumb ended his season.

KATOH: 4.2 WAR

Hayes has one of the more oddly shaped tool profiles among premium corner prospects in the minors. He is a plus runner who stole 27 bases in 32 attempts last year and probably the fastest third-base prospect in baseball. He has great lateral range to his left and right, often making plays deep in foul territory behind the bag and in front of waiting shortstops. His plus arm allows him to hose runners from all kinds of odd platforms. He projects as a plus defender at third, and one source with whom I spoke has a future 70 on his glove.

Hayes has an incomplete offensive profile but is a tough out. He tracks pitches well and his sweeping bat path allows him to push the ball to the opposite field when he’s late on velocity, which happens often because Hayes has below-average bat speed. The lack of bat speed leads to a relative lack of power, but Hayes’ ability to make contact and reach base should be sufficient for everyday duty at third. He projects as an average regular but could be a tick better if the glove becomes elite and/or if he adds significant value on the bases.

KATOH: 4.5 WAR

45 FV Prospects

Signed for $450,000 in 2015, Sanchez dominated the GCL in his first pro season in the U.S., slashing .284/.359/.417 with more walks than strikeouts. Sanchez loads his hands low, creating some natural loft in his swing. He’s short to the ball but still generates great extension through contact, a rare combination that signals there’s a chance Sanchez is going to hit for average and hit for power. At just 5-foot-10, his frame doesn’t suggest he’s going to grow into significantly more raw pop, but just on bat speed and an ability to pull the ball in the air reliably, he could hit for 40 or 45 game power. That could be enough to make him an All-Star in center field, as Sanchez is a plus runner and advanced defender. He could have a plus glove at peak. Look for Sanchez to receive an aggressive assignment next year and move quickly as a polished, four-tool, table-setter.

KATOH: 2.5 WAR

Hearn’s regular season ended with an oblique injury in July, and did so just as it looked like he was starting to take off. Hearn struck out 26 hitters in his final 15.2 innings at Bradenton just before the injury and didn’t pitch again until a September tune-up in the GCL while prepping for Fall League. In Arizona, Hearn’s fastball was 90-94, down from the 94-98 mph gas he was pumping earlier in the year. It has good angle and plays up a bit due to extension. Despite his delivery’s ease, he struggled to throw strikes in the Fall League and has struggled throughout his career, as well.

Hearn’s lack of command and long history of injury point to the bullpen. He had a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures. He had a foot injury in 2016 and then the oblique issue this year. Hearn’s lack of reps due to injury (and because he was working out of the bullpen as a Washington farmhand before being included in the Mark Melancon deal) are also potentially the cause of his undercooked command and secondary pitches. He’s tinkering with his low-80s slider (which, again, featured less velo in the AFL than what I’d seen during the regular season), which tilts in with enough 2-to-7 movement that it can garner swings and misses when located properly. It’s currently average, flashing above. His changeup lacks fade, but if hitters are geared up for 95 or more, it’ll be fine as a tertiary offering that induces weak contact. That’s predicated on Hearn’s elite starter velocity returning next year.

There’s no reason to rush Hearn as a reliever, as the value he’d provide as a fully developed rotation piece greatly outweighs what it would be in the bullpen, especially with several other upper-level, relief-only arms in this system. The Pirates’ patience with Tyler Glasnow is a sign they’re willing to wait. I have Hearn projected as a high-risk mid-rotation starter.

KATOH: 1.5 WAR

Escobar has one of the most explosive deliveries in the minors. He takes a big, aggressive stride off the mound and his arm action is violent but efficient, enabling Escobar to generate as much velocity as his curvacious 6-foot-1 frame will allow. He sits 93-95 and will touch 96 throughout the course of a start. He was up to 98 in his Futures Game appearance. The violent nature of the delivery also leads to enough wildness that many scouts have Escobar projected into the bullpen. He’ll show glimpses of east/west command of the fastball and has potentially dominant secondary stuff in a plus-flashing curveball and changeup. Escobar can throw the power curveball for strikes in the zone or back foot it to left-handed hitters, while his cambio has swing-and-miss fade. If he can refine his control, he’s a mid-rotation piece. If not, he’s a back-end bullpen arm.

KATOH: 1.9 WAR

After a multi-year track record of offensive success at Vanderbilt, Reynolds seemed likely to go somewhere in the 2016 draft’s first round. Some combination of signability and concerns about swing and miss pushed him into round two. He signed for $1.35 million. Reynolds has several average, or slightly above-average, tools. He runs well enough that some scouts like him in center field, he generates above-average power on contact and has some feel for moving the barrel around the hitting zone. He’s also apt to chase breaking balls down and in 2017, his first full pro year, he struggled through April n the Cal League before righting the ship and finishing with a .312/.364/.462 line. Reynolds is now 23, has some swing and miss issues and isn’t a consensus enter fielder. His tools are well-rounded but not exceptional, so his realistic ceiling, especially if he has to move to a corner, is modest. He has a strong shot at being an average regular, or just shy of that.

The owner of a measly 10% career strikeout rate, Newman’s carrying tool is his deft bat. It’s quick, and he has exceptional hand-eye coordination that allows him to make contact all over the strike zone — and sometimes outside of it. Newman’s offensive profile has been one-dimensional since his days at Arizona, and he hits for almost no power. Optimists saw his college swing, which operated without aid of his lower half, and thought pro player development could unlock more power. Combined with Newman’s bat-to-ball ability and favorable defensive profile, that could make him a star. While Newman is employing more of a leg kick than he was at U of A, he’s still not hitting for power, and at age 24, it’s looking unlikely that he ever will.

At shortstop, Newman is just fine. He has plus straight-line speed but only average lateral quickness and range, and his arm just barely passes on the left side of the infield. If his ability to reach base in the majors is hampered by his lack of power, then Newman projects as more of a fringe regular than an average everyday player.

KATOH: 3.0 WAR

Jennings tore his ACL playing quarterback last fall but was up to 96 during his senior spring while pitching with a knee brace. He’s also shown promising feel for two different breaking balls, and some scouts think he’ll have a plus slider at maturity. He is athletic and more physically projectable than many of the other prep arms from the 2017 draft. Jennings signed for an overslot $1.9 million as the 42nd overall pick and has mid-rotation potential.

KATOH: 0.2 WAR

40 FV Prospects

Alemais hadn’t been hitting for 30 games at Low-A when he went down for two months with a thumb injury. Despite this, he was sent up to High-A Bradenton when he returned, and he had a strong final month there, slashing .317/.393/.406. Scouts see this as an aberration and still consider Alemais a glove-only prospect unlikely to hit enough to project as an average everyday player. He has one hell of a glove, though. Alemais is rangy, acrobatic, and has a plus arm. He’s a future plus-plus defender at short whose bat will likely limit him to below-average everyday value or a bench role.

Kramer had great natural feel to hit in college, but scouts weren’t optimistic about his ability to play shortstop, nor about his ability to hit for enough power to profile anywhere else. He’s a baseball sponge, incessantly discussing hitting in the dugout and, in pro ball, quickly took to an adjustment that lowered where his hands load. It increased the loft in his swing this year. Before he broke his hand in June, which effectively ended his regular season, Kramer had recorded an ISO twice that of his 2016 mark and while also cutting his ground-ball rate from 55% to 37%. He looked predictably rusty in the Arizona Fall League, but it’s clear there’s more in-game power potential here now. The question is, how much? A larger sample of upper-level at-bats in 2018 will be telling, but Newman looks more like a likely big-league contributor now than he did last offseason.

KATOH: 0.9 WAR

Scouts aren’t exactly sure what the hell to make of Cruz because most of them have never seen anything like him. He was 6-foot-3 when he signed but now stands a well-proportioned 6-foot-8 in his spikes. His size creates a number of issues with his swing (he’s often late due to its length) and defensive projection, but he already has impressive raw power that enables him to poke out balls with which he’s barely made contact, and he’s remarkably athletic for his size.

Cruz is fairly smooth at third base, but most scouts have him projected to either first base or right field because of his size. He has a plus-plus arm that would be wasted at first, but he’d be an incredible target there and already possesses an infielder’s hands. In right field, there would be slightly less pressure on Cruz’s bat. He was so raw in Arizona this spring that scouts were shocked when he was assigned to a full-season affiliate, so his poor statistical performance there is not all that surprising or concerning. Again, nobody is sure what to make of Cruz, but everyone thinks he’s talented enough to be something, probably a power-hitting right fielder.

KATOH: 1.0 WAR

Signed for $200,000, Apostel lit up the DSL in his second year there, slashing .258/.422/.495 with more walks than strikeouts. He has a plus arm and is athletic for his size, giving him some chance to stay at third base even as his massive 6-foot-4 frame fills out. He’ll likely be something close to 240 pounds at maturity, so there’s a chance he may have to move to first base at some point. He has plus raw power projection and, given the room for mass remaining on his frame, you can dream on a bit more than that.

Getting to that power in games will require Apostel to exhibit improved control of his extra-long levers. There’s impact power projection here, and if Apostel somehow stays at third base and develops as a hitter as the power comes, he could be a star. If he can’t stay at third and can’t close holes in his swing, he’s a first-base prospect without a complete offensive skillset. This kind of prospect is volatile, but Apostel is one of the more interesting lottery tickets in a system with several of them.