Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Michael Wacha	200.2	9	10	19.5%	6.7%	3.32	4.38	2.4	4.8	51.1	53.8	200.2	9	10	19.5%	6.7%	3.32	4.42	2.4	4.8	51.1	53.0
2	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.59	6.2	7.5	92.7	133.8
3	Tanner Bibee	188.0	7	15	19.0%	7.1%	4.36	4.52	1.5	2.3	24.8	24.4	188.0	7	15	19.0%	7.1%	4.36	4.56	1.5	2.3	24.8	23.6
4	Parker Messick	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.07	4.9	6.5	71.5	101.1	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.10	4.9	6.5	71.5	100.4
5	Logan Gilbert	186.0	12	11	27.3%	6.5%	3.73	3.83	2.9	3.6	48.5	62.4	186.0	12	11	27.3%	6.5%	3.73	3.86	2.9	3.6	48.5	61.7
6	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.01	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.1	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.05	4.9	4.6	51.6	81.4
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.47	3.5	3.5	54.0	75.0	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.51	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.3
8	Nick Martinez	180.0	15	6	15.1%	3.6%	3.10	3.96	2.9	5.4	53.9	64.7	180.0	15	6	15.1%	3.6%	3.10	4.00	2.9	5.4	53.9	64.0
9	Shane Baz	179.2	6	15	20.0%	8.2%	4.11	3.62	3.4	1.9	29.2	46.7	179.2	6	15	20.0%	8.2%	4.11	3.66	3.4	1.9	29.2	46.0
10	Taj Bradley	178.1	12	6	27.4%	10.2%	3.73	3.82	2.8	3.9	47.7	61.1	178.1	12	6	27.4%	10.2%	3.73	3.86	2.8	3.9	47.7	60.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Michael Wacha	200.2	9	10	19.5%	6.7%	3.32	4.38	2.4	4.8	51.1	53.8	200.2	9	10	19.5%	6.7%	3.32	4.42	2.4	4.8	51.1	53.0
2	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.59	6.2	7.5	92.7	133.8
3	Tanner Bibee	188.0	7	15	19.0%	7.1%	4.36	4.52	1.5	2.3	24.8	24.4	188.0	7	15	19.0%	7.1%	4.36	4.56	1.5	2.3	24.8	23.6
4	Parker Messick	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.07	4.9	6.5	71.5	101.1	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.10	4.9	6.5	71.5	100.4
5	Logan Gilbert	186.0	12	11	27.3%	6.5%	3.73	3.83	2.9	3.6	48.5	62.4	186.0	12	11	27.3%	6.5%	3.73	3.86	2.9	3.6	48.5	61.7
6	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.01	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.1	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.05	4.9	4.6	51.6	81.4
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.47	3.5	3.5	54.0	75.0	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.51	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.3
8	Nick Martinez	180.0	15	6	15.1%	3.6%	3.10	3.96	2.9	5.4	53.9	64.7	180.0	15	6	15.1%	3.6%	3.10	4.00	2.9	5.4	53.9	64.0
9	Shane Baz	179.2	6	15	20.0%	8.2%	4.11	3.62	3.4	1.9	29.2	46.7	179.2	6	15	20.0%	8.2%	4.11	3.66	3.4	1.9	29.2	46.0
10	Taj Bradley	178.1	12	6	27.4%	10.2%	3.73	3.82	2.8	3.9	47.7	61.1	178.1	12	6	27.4%	10.2%	3.73	3.86	2.8	3.9	47.7	60.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Sandy Alcantara	214.0	13	11	17.1%	6.6%	3.87	4.08	3.2	3.9	43.3	53.2	214.0	13	11	17.1%	6.6%	3.87	4.12	3.2	3.9	43.3	52.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.7	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.84	6.2	6.3	77.6	115.9
3	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.2	5.5	64.1	77.0	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.93	3.2	5.5	64.1	76.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.37	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.0
5	Michael King	185.0	12	10	21.0%	9.2%	3.21	4.13	2.7	4.9	54.4	61.9	185.0	12	10	21.0%	9.2%	3.21	4.17	2.7	4.9	54.4	61.2
6	Jesús Luzardo	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.9	103.3	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.81	5.5	5.3	68.9	102.6
7	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.5	3.7	58.2	75.7
8	Aaron Nola	175.1	7	12	23.8%	7.9%	4.67	4.87	1.3	2.0	21.4	14.2	175.1	7	12	23.8%	7.9%	4.67	4.90	1.3	2.0	21.4	13.5
9	Jacob Misiorowski	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.17	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.8	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.20	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.1
10	Paul Skenes	174.1	10	11	28.1%	6.9%	3.82	3.33	4.2	3.0	43.2	65.8	174.1	10	11	28.1%	6.9%	3.82	3.36	4.2	3.0	43.2	65.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Sandy Alcantara	214.0	13	11	17.1%	6.6%	3.87	4.08	3.2	3.9	43.3	53.2	214.0	13	11	17.1%	6.6%	3.87	4.12	3.2	3.9	43.3	52.4
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.7	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.84	6.2	6.3	77.6	115.9
3	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.2	5.5	64.1	77.0	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.93	3.2	5.5	64.1	76.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.37	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.0
5	Michael King	185.0	12	10	21.0%	9.2%	3.21	4.13	2.7	4.9	54.4	61.9	185.0	12	10	21.0%	9.2%	3.21	4.17	2.7	4.9	54.4	61.2
6	Jesús Luzardo	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.9	103.3	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.81	5.5	5.3	68.9	102.6
7	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.5	3.7	58.2	75.7
8	Aaron Nola	175.1	7	12	23.8%	7.9%	4.67	4.87	1.3	2.0	21.4	14.2	175.1	7	12	23.8%	7.9%	4.67	4.90	1.3	2.0	21.4	13.5
9	Jacob Misiorowski	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.17	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.8	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.20	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.1
10	Paul Skenes	174.1	10	11	28.1%	6.9%	3.82	3.33	4.2	3.0	43.2	65.8	174.1	10	11	28.1%	6.9%	3.82	3.36	4.2	3.0	43.2	65.2

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG