Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	172.1	14	5	31.1%	6.1%	2.40	2.63	5.4	6.4	75.6	111.4	200.1	16	6	31.0%	6.2%	2.47	2.72	6.2	7.3	86.1	125.6
2	Tarik Skubal	166.0	11	4	33.5%	3.9%	2.28	2.27	6.1	5.9	73.2	114.4	197.0	13	5	33.1%	4.1%	2.33	2.36	7.1	6.9	85.5	132.2
3	Bryan Woo	164.2	12	7	25.6%	4.8%	2.95	3.56	3.2	4.2	56.9	74.2	192.2	14	8	25.3%	4.9%	3.04	3.64	3.7	4.6	64.6	83.1
4	Framber Valdez	164.1	12	7	23.4%	8.3%	3.18	3.06	4.1	4.3	52.0	78.3	197.1	14	8	23.3%	8.3%	3.19	3.20	4.8	5.0	61.6	90.1
5	Carlos Rodón	164.1	15	7	26.5%	10.0%	3.18	3.82	2.6	3.5	56.9	69.3	194.1	17	9	26.5%	9.8%	3.29	3.87	3.1	3.9	64.2	77.7
6	Max Fried	162.0	14	5	23.1%	6.3%	3.06	3.21	3.6	3.2	55.4	78.7	193.0	16	6	23.0%	6.4%	3.12	3.30	4.3	3.8	63.8	89.6
7	Kevin Gausman	160.2	8	10	24.3%	6.7%	3.75	3.64	3.0	2.9	37.0	52.3	190.2	10	12	24.3%	6.7%	3.78	3.71	3.5	3.3	44.1	60.8
8	Ryan Pepiot	158.0	10	10	24.4%	8.6%	3.70	4.44	1.9	3.0	39.5	40.6	187.0	12	12	24.3%	8.7%	3.80	4.50	2.3	3.3	45.0	45.0
9	Hunter Brown	155.2	10	6	29.1%	7.6%	2.37	2.93	4.3	5.5	64.5	91.6	185.2	12	7	28.6%	7.6%	2.57	3.04	4.9	6.0	72.8	102.9
10	Dean Kremer	155.1	9	10	19.8%	6.2%	4.52	4.02	2.2	1.3	21.5	29.7	181.1	11	12	19.8%	6.3%	4.47	4.13	2.5	1.6	26.7	34.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	172.1	14	5	31.1%	6.1%	2.40	2.63	5.4	6.4	75.6	111.4	200.1	16	6	31.0%	6.2%	2.47	2.72	6.2	7.3	86.1	125.6
2	Tarik Skubal	166.0	11	4	33.5%	3.9%	2.28	2.27	6.1	5.9	73.2	114.4	197.0	13	5	33.1%	4.1%	2.33	2.36	7.1	6.9	85.5	132.2
3	Bryan Woo	164.2	12	7	25.6%	4.8%	2.95	3.56	3.2	4.2	56.9	74.2	192.2	14	8	25.3%	4.9%	3.04	3.64	3.7	4.6	64.6	83.1
4	Framber Valdez	164.1	12	7	23.4%	8.3%	3.18	3.06	4.1	4.3	52.0	78.3	197.1	14	8	23.3%	8.3%	3.19	3.20	4.8	5.0	61.6	90.1
5	Carlos Rodón	164.1	15	7	26.5%	10.0%	3.18	3.82	2.6	3.5	56.9	69.3	194.1	17	9	26.5%	9.8%	3.29	3.87	3.1	3.9	64.2	77.7
6	Max Fried	162.0	14	5	23.1%	6.3%	3.06	3.21	3.6	3.2	55.4	78.7	193.0	16	6	23.0%	6.4%	3.12	3.30	4.3	3.8	63.8	89.6
7	Kevin Gausman	160.2	8	10	24.3%	6.7%	3.75	3.64	3.0	2.9	37.0	52.3	190.2	10	12	24.3%	6.7%	3.78	3.71	3.5	3.3	44.1	60.8
8	Ryan Pepiot	158.0	10	10	24.4%	8.6%	3.70	4.44	1.9	3.0	39.5	40.6	187.0	12	12	24.3%	8.7%	3.80	4.50	2.3	3.3	45.0	45.0
9	Hunter Brown	155.2	10	6	29.1%	7.6%	2.37	2.93	4.3	5.5	64.5	91.6	185.2	12	7	28.6%	7.6%	2.57	3.04	4.9	6.0	72.8	102.9
10	Dean Kremer	155.1	9	10	19.8%	6.2%	4.52	4.02	2.2	1.3	21.5	29.7	181.1	11	12	19.8%	6.3%	4.47	4.13	2.5	1.6	26.7	34.1

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	173.2	12	9	26.1%	5.2%	3.16	2.68	4.4	4.0	56.5	91.6	205.2	14	11	25.5%	5.2%	3.19	2.81	5.1	4.6	65.5	104.1
2	Cristopher Sánchez	169.1	11	5	26.3%	6.0%	2.66	2.58	5.2	6.0	63.8	99.8	200.1	13	6	25.8%	6.0%	2.74	2.74	6.0	6.7	73.3	112.4
3	Paul Skenes	167.0	9	9	28.6%	5.8%	2.05	2.45	5.5	7.0	73.2	111.2	194.0	11	10	28.7%	5.9%	2.18	2.52	6.3	7.7	82.9	125.6
4	Robbie Ray	164.0	10	6	24.3%	9.5%	3.18	3.86	2.0	3.6	50.3	61.9	192.0	12	8	24.3%	9.4%	3.28	3.94	2.3	4.0	57.2	69.1
5	Zac Gallen	162.0	10	13	21.6%	8.1%	4.94	4.48	0.9	0.9	16.9	17.3	191.0	12	15	21.8%	8.1%	4.81	4.47	1.2	1.3	23.2	23.8
6	Nick Pivetta	158.1	13	4	26.8%	6.7%	2.90	3.34	3.5	4.5	57.9	78.2	188.1	15	6	26.9%	6.8%	3.06	3.50	4.0	4.9	65.3	86.3
7	Jake Irvin	154.1	8	10	15.2%	7.9%	5.42	5.54	-0.1	0.2	2.4	-15.4	184.1	9	12	15.6%	7.8%	5.32	5.47	0.0	0.4	4.7	-15.2
8	Freddy Peralta	153.2	16	5	26.7%	9.2%	2.58	3.60	3.2	5.5	65.6	81.1	181.2	18	7	26.7%	9.1%	2.77	3.69	3.7	6.0	72.7	89.0
9	Matthew Boyd	153.1	12	7	22.6%	5.9%	2.82	3.41	3.3	4.4	54.4	73.0	182.1	14	9	22.7%	6.1%	2.96	3.53	3.8	4.9	61.7	81.2
10	Sonny Gray	152.1	12	7	26.8%	4.5%	4.19	3.23	3.3	1.6	34.0	55.4	181.1	14	9	26.7%	4.7%	4.07	3.27	3.9	2.2	42.6	67.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	173.2	12	9	26.1%	5.2%	3.16	2.68	4.4	4.0	56.5	91.6	205.2	14	11	25.5%	5.2%	3.19	2.81	5.1	4.6	65.5	104.1
2	Cristopher Sánchez	169.1	11	5	26.3%	6.0%	2.66	2.58	5.2	6.0	63.8	99.8	200.1	13	6	25.8%	6.0%	2.74	2.74	6.0	6.7	73.3	112.4
3	Paul Skenes	167.0	9	9	28.6%	5.8%	2.05	2.45	5.5	7.0	73.2	111.2	194.0	11	10	28.7%	5.9%	2.18	2.52	6.3	7.7	82.9	125.6
4	Robbie Ray	164.0	10	6	24.3%	9.5%	3.18	3.86	2.0	3.6	50.3	61.9	192.0	12	8	24.3%	9.4%	3.28	3.94	2.3	4.0	57.2	69.1
5	Zac Gallen	162.0	10	13	21.6%	8.1%	4.94	4.48	0.9	0.9	16.9	17.3	191.0	12	15	21.8%	8.1%	4.81	4.47	1.2	1.3	23.2	23.8
6	Nick Pivetta	158.1	13	4	26.8%	6.7%	2.90	3.34	3.5	4.5	57.9	78.2	188.1	15	6	26.9%	6.8%	3.06	3.50	4.0	4.9	65.3	86.3
7	Jake Irvin	154.1	8	10	15.2%	7.9%	5.42	5.54	-0.1	0.2	2.4	-15.4	184.1	9	12	15.6%	7.8%	5.32	5.47	0.0	0.4	4.7	-15.2
8	Freddy Peralta	153.2	16	5	26.7%	9.2%	2.58	3.60	3.2	5.5	65.6	81.1	181.2	18	7	26.7%	9.1%	2.77	3.69	3.7	6.0	72.7	89.0
9	Matthew Boyd	153.1	12	7	22.6%	5.9%	2.82	3.41	3.3	4.4	54.4	73.0	182.1	14	9	22.7%	6.1%	2.96	3.53	3.8	4.9	61.7	81.2
10	Sonny Gray	152.1	12	7	26.8%	4.5%	4.19	3.23	3.3	1.6	34.0	55.4	181.1	14	9	26.7%	4.7%	4.07	3.27	3.9	2.2	42.6	67.4

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG