Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Max Fried | 51.2 | 6 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.3% | 1.05 | 2.90 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 39.7 | 195.2 | 16 | 7 | 22.4% | 6.3% | 2.76 | 3.32 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 71.8 | 97.4 |
| 2 | Seth Lugo | 50.2 | 3 | 3 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.84 | 4.37 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 194.2 | 11 | 12 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.74 | 4.18 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 50.0 |
| 3 | Luis Severino | 49.2 | 1 | 3 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.62 | 3.70 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 185.2 | 8 | 11 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 4.17 | 4.12 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 30.1 | 38.0 |
| 4 | Garrett Crochet | 49.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 2.83 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 31.2 | 172.0 | 13 | 7 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 2.77 | 2.82 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 67.2 | 99.4 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 48.2 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 2.2% | 2.03 | 2.21 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 21.6 | 34.0 | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.7% | 5.0% | 3.32 | 3.30 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 53.0 | 77.3 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodón | 48.2 | 4 | 3 | 30.3% | 10.6% | 2.96 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 183.2 | 13 | 11 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 3.72 | 3.81 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 49.9 | 63.9 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.94 | 3.80 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 13.1 | 190.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 3.60 | 3.71 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 48.6 | 65.2 |
| 8 | José Berríos | 46.2 | 1 | 1 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.86 | 4.81 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 196.2 | 9 | 10 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 4.16 | 4.52 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 33.9 | 33.5 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 45.1 | 2 | 4 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 2.98 | 3.09 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 165.1 | 9 | 12 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 3.81 | 3.86 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 35.1 | 46.8 |
| 10 | Bryan Woo | 44.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 4.6% | 3.25 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 22.5 | 158.1 | 11 | 7 | 24.0% | 5.1% | 3.52 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 43.6 | 62.2 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Max Fried | 51.2 | 6 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.3% | 1.05 | 2.90 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 39.7 | 195.2 | 16 | 7 | 22.4% | 6.3% | 2.76 | 3.32 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 71.8 | 97.4 |
| 2 | Seth Lugo | 50.2 | 3 | 3 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.84 | 4.37 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 194.2 | 11 | 12 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.74 | 4.18 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 50.0 |
| 3 | Luis Severino | 49.2 | 1 | 3 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.62 | 3.70 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 185.2 | 8 | 11 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 4.17 | 4.12 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 30.1 | 38.0 |
| 4 | Garrett Crochet | 49.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 2.83 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 31.2 | 172.0 | 13 | 7 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 2.77 | 2.82 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 67.2 | 99.4 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 48.2 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 2.2% | 2.03 | 2.21 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 21.6 | 34.0 | 181.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.7% | 5.0% | 3.32 | 3.30 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 53.0 | 77.3 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodón | 48.2 | 4 | 3 | 30.3% | 10.6% | 2.96 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 183.2 | 13 | 11 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 3.72 | 3.81 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 49.9 | 63.9 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.94 | 3.80 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 13.1 | 190.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 3.60 | 3.71 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 48.6 | 65.2 |
| 8 | José Berríos | 46.2 | 1 | 1 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.86 | 4.81 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 196.2 | 9 | 10 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 4.16 | 4.52 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 33.9 | 33.5 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 45.1 | 2 | 4 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 2.98 | 3.09 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 165.1 | 9 | 12 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 3.81 | 3.86 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 35.1 | 46.8 |
| 10 | Bryan Woo | 44.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 4.6% | 3.25 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 22.5 | 158.1 | 11 | 7 | 24.0% | 5.1% | 3.52 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 43.6 | 62.2 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 51.0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 3.19 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 23.5 | 208.0 | 14 | 8 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 3.33 | 3.26 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 64.8 | 93.4 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 48.2 | 3 | 4 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 2.77 | 3.03 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 17.0 | 25.0 | 182.2 | 12 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 3.01 | 2.99 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 62.7 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 48.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 19.8 | 34.0 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 3.08 | 2.79 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 66.1 | 104.3 |
| 4 | Jake Irvin | 48.0 | 2 | 1 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 3.94 | 5.09 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 173.0 | 8 | 9 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 4.42 | 4.78 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 22.9 | 17.5 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 46.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 5.9% | 3.50 | 3.59 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 18.6 | 182.1 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 3.55 | 3.57 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 51.2 | 70.0 |
| 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 46.0 | 2 | 3 | 36.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 2.74 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 23.8 | 175.0 | 10 | 11 | 29.6% | 8.2% | 3.60 | 3.39 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 49.1 | 70.7 |
| 7 | Hunter Greene | 45.2 | 4 | 2 | 34.7% | 4.5% | 2.36 | 3.07 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 20.9 | 28.2 | 174.2 | 12 | 9 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 3.45 | 3.59 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 53.8 | 71.5 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 45.1 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 3.47 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 20.5 | 25.7 | 177.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 3.35 | 3.76 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 55.4 | 70.0 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 45.1 | 3 | 4 | 25.7% | 11.0% | 4.37 | 4.11 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 183.1 | 13 | 11 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 3.93 | 3.90 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 43.4 | 55.6 |
| 10 | Mitch Keller | 45.0 | 1 | 4 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.40 | 3.67 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 182.0 | 8 | 13 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 4.20 | 4.01 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 29.5 | 39.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 51.0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 3.19 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 23.5 | 208.0 | 14 | 8 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 3.33 | 3.26 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 64.8 | 93.4 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 48.2 | 3 | 4 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 2.77 | 3.03 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 17.0 | 25.0 | 182.2 | 12 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 3.01 | 2.99 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 62.7 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 48.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 19.8 | 34.0 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 3.08 | 2.79 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 66.1 | 104.3 |
| 4 | Jake Irvin | 48.0 | 2 | 1 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 3.94 | 5.09 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 173.0 | 8 | 9 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 4.42 | 4.78 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 22.9 | 17.5 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 46.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 5.9% | 3.50 | 3.59 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 18.6 | 182.1 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 3.55 | 3.57 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 51.2 | 70.0 |
| 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 46.0 | 2 | 3 | 36.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 2.74 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 23.8 | 175.0 | 10 | 11 | 29.6% | 8.2% | 3.60 | 3.39 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 49.1 | 70.7 |
| 7 | Hunter Greene | 45.2 | 4 | 2 | 34.7% | 4.5% | 2.36 | 3.07 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 20.9 | 28.2 | 174.2 | 12 | 9 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 3.45 | 3.59 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 53.8 | 71.5 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 45.1 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 3.47 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 20.5 | 25.7 | 177.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 3.35 | 3.76 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 55.4 | 70.0 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 45.1 | 3 | 4 | 25.7% | 11.0% | 4.37 | 4.11 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 183.1 | 13 | 11 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 3.93 | 3.90 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 43.4 | 55.6 |
| 10 | Mitch Keller | 45.0 | 1 | 4 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 4.40 | 3.67 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 182.0 | 8 | 13 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 4.20 | 4.01 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 29.5 | 39.5 |
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