Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.59	6.2	7.5	92.7	133.8
2	Dylan Cease	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.56	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.9	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.59	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.3
3	Parker Messick	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.07	4.9	6.5	71.5	101.1	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.10	4.9	6.5	71.5	100.4
4	Drew Rasmussen	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.81	5.0	5.9	68.4	100.6	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.85	5.0	5.9	68.4	99.9
5	Sonny Gray	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.47	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.7	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.51	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.0
6	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.01	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.2	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.05	4.9	4.6	51.6	81.4
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.47	3.5	3.5	54.0	75.0	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.51	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.3
8	Payton Tolle	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.04	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.6	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.07	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.0
9	Sean Burke	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.62	3.2	4.0	51.7	68.5	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.66	3.2	4.0	51.7	67.8
10	Louis Varland	78.0	5	6	31.6%	7.5%	1.27	1.83	3.1	3.1	42.7	65.8	78.0	5	6	31.6%	7.5%	1.27	1.87	3.1	3.1	42.7	65.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.59	6.2	7.5	92.7	133.8
2	Dylan Cease	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.56	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.9	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.59	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.3
3	Parker Messick	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.07	4.9	6.5	71.5	101.1	186.1	12	9	25.8%	6.6%	2.56	3.10	4.9	6.5	71.5	100.4
4	Drew Rasmussen	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.81	5.0	5.9	68.4	100.6	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.85	5.0	5.9	68.4	99.9
5	Sonny Gray	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.47	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.7	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.51	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.0
6	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.01	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.2	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.05	4.9	4.6	51.6	81.4
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.47	3.5	3.5	54.0	75.0	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.51	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.3
8	Payton Tolle	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.04	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.6	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.07	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.0
9	Sean Burke	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.62	3.2	4.0	51.7	68.5	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.66	3.2	4.0	51.7	67.8
10	Louis Varland	78.0	5	6	31.6%	7.5%	1.27	1.83	3.1	3.1	42.7	65.8	78.0	5	6	31.6%	7.5%	1.27	1.87	3.1	3.1	42.7	65.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.17	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.8	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.20	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.1
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.7	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.84	6.2	6.3	77.6	115.9
3	Chris Sale	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.29	5.8	6.4	76.3	116.3	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.32	5.8	6.4	76.3	115.7
4	Jesús Luzardo	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.9	103.3	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.81	5.5	5.3	68.9	102.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.37	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.0
6	Cade Cavalli	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.25	3.9	4.1	60.8	84.3	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.29	3.9	4.1	60.8	83.7
7	Chase Burns	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.24	4.3	4.7	61.7	83.2	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.28	4.3	4.7	61.7	82.6
8	Zack Wheeler	162.0	14	5	29.9%	7.3%	3.00	3.35	4.0	5.2	60.3	81.1	162.0	14	5	29.9%	7.3%	3.00	3.38	4.0	5.2	60.3	80.4
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.2	5.5	64.1	77.0	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.93	3.2	5.5	64.1	76.2
10	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.5	3.7	58.2	75.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.17	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.8	174.2	16	5	37.9%	6.6%	1.80	2.20	6.6	7.4	93.5	138.1
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.7	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.84	6.2	6.3	77.6	115.9
3	Chris Sale	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.29	5.8	6.4	76.3	116.3	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.32	5.8	6.4	76.3	115.7
4	Jesús Luzardo	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.78	5.5	5.3	68.9	103.3	179.2	14	5	30.3%	7.1%	2.86	2.81	5.5	5.3	68.9	102.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.37	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.0
6	Cade Cavalli	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.25	3.9	4.1	60.8	84.3	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.29	3.9	4.1	60.8	83.7
7	Chase Burns	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.24	4.3	4.7	61.7	83.2	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.28	4.3	4.7	61.7	82.6
8	Zack Wheeler	162.0	14	5	29.9%	7.3%	3.00	3.35	4.0	5.2	60.3	81.1	162.0	14	5	29.9%	7.3%	3.00	3.38	4.0	5.2	60.3	80.4
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.2	5.5	64.1	77.0	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.93	3.2	5.5	64.1	76.2
10	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.62	3.5	3.7	58.2	75.7

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG