Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 83.1 | 6 | 2 | 33.4% | 2.2% | 2.16 | 1.84 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 62.8 | 200.1 | 15 | 7 | 31.4% | 3.7% | 2.47 | 2.31 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 84.6 | 133.4 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 88.0 | 6 | 4 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.35 | 2.67 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 38.0 | 55.9 | 185.0 | 14 | 8 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.68 | 2.79 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 75.0 | 110.1 |
3 | Max Fried | 81.0 | 8 | 1 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 1.78 | 2.78 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 40.2 | 55.7 | 193.0 | 16 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 2.66 | 3.18 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 73.7 | 102.1 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.69 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.7 | 185.0 | 16 | 9 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 2.82 | 3.18 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 71.3 | 98.4 |
5 | Kris Bubic | 75.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 1.43 | 2.44 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 38.6 | 55.8 | 172.1 | 11 | 8 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 2.66 | 3.06 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 63.9 | 91.4 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.41 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.8 | 164.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.6% | 2.74 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 61.9 | 83.3 |
7 | Framber Valdez | 85.0 | 6 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.07 | 3.07 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 41.4 | 202.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.35 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 61.6 | 87.3 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.27 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 33.6 | 45.2 | 190.2 | 16 | 10 | 29.1% | 8.5% | 3.45 | 3.62 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 60.9 | 79.6 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.32 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.8 | 158.1 | 9 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 2.79 | 3.05 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 55.2 | 80.6 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.41 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.5 | 173.0 | 14 | 8 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 3.43 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 53.7 | 71.1 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 83.1 | 6 | 2 | 33.4% | 2.2% | 2.16 | 1.84 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 62.8 | 200.1 | 15 | 7 | 31.4% | 3.7% | 2.47 | 2.31 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 84.6 | 133.4 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 88.0 | 6 | 4 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.35 | 2.67 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 38.0 | 55.9 | 185.0 | 14 | 8 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.68 | 2.79 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 75.0 | 110.1 |
3 | Max Fried | 81.0 | 8 | 1 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 1.78 | 2.78 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 40.2 | 55.7 | 193.0 | 16 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 2.66 | 3.18 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 73.7 | 102.1 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.69 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.7 | 185.0 | 16 | 9 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 2.82 | 3.18 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 71.3 | 98.4 |
5 | Kris Bubic | 75.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 1.43 | 2.44 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 38.6 | 55.8 | 172.1 | 11 | 8 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 2.66 | 3.06 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 63.9 | 91.4 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.41 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.8 | 164.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.6% | 2.74 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 61.9 | 83.3 |
7 | Framber Valdez | 85.0 | 6 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.07 | 3.07 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 41.4 | 202.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 3.25 | 3.35 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 61.6 | 87.3 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.27 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 33.6 | 45.2 | 190.2 | 16 | 10 | 29.1% | 8.5% | 3.45 | 3.62 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 60.9 | 79.6 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.32 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.8 | 158.1 | 9 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 2.79 | 3.05 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 55.2 | 80.6 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.41 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.5 | 173.0 | 14 | 8 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 3.43 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 53.7 | 71.1 |
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National League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 91.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 2.48 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 39.7 | 60.1 | 197.0 | 11 | 11 | 27.8% | 6.3% | 2.51 | 2.72 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 76.1 | 115.1 |
2 | Logan Webb | 87.1 | 5 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.8% | 2.58 | 2.12 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 33.8 | 56.9 | 207.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.0% | 5.1% | 2.91 | 2.68 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 70.9 | 112.8 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 76.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.1% | 6.1% | 2.96 | 2.92 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 28.4 | 41.7 | 197.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.0% | 6.3% | 3.11 | 3.17 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 67.2 | 96.4 |
4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 73.2 | 6 | 4 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.89 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 33.4 | 46.6 | 174.2 | 14 | 8 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 2.89 | 3.18 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 64.8 | 90.5 |
5 | Chris Sale | 73.2 | 3 | 4 | 30.9% | 7.4% | 2.93 | 2.92 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.4 | 38.4 | 182.2 | 11 | 8 | 30.5% | 7.0% | 3.01 | 3.02 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 64.4 | 94.5 |
6 | Kodai Senga | 68.0 | 6 | 3 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 1.59 | 3.29 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 43.7 | 169.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.82 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 61.6 | 77.0 |
7 | Robbie Ray | 77.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.4% | 10.1% | 2.44 | 3.03 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 34.4 | 47.0 | 174.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 3.15 | 3.53 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 59.6 | 78.4 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 75.1 | 3 | 5 | 35.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.58 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 27.5 | 43.6 | 177.1 | 10 | 11 | 31.1% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.19 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 57.4 | 83.2 |
9 | Sonny Gray | 75.1 | 7 | 1 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 3.35 | 3.11 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 36.4 | 182.1 | 14 | 7 | 25.9% | 5.6% | 3.46 | 3.33 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 78.4 |
10 | Freddy Peralta | 77.0 | 5 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.69 | 3.88 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 28.3 | 33.6 | 178.0 | 11 | 10 | 25.7% | 9.4% | 3.34 | 3.94 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 53.1 | 64.1 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 91.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 2.48 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 39.7 | 60.1 | 197.0 | 11 | 11 | 27.8% | 6.3% | 2.51 | 2.72 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 76.1 | 115.1 |
2 | Logan Webb | 87.1 | 5 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.8% | 2.58 | 2.12 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 33.8 | 56.9 | 207.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.0% | 5.1% | 2.91 | 2.68 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 70.9 | 112.8 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 76.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.1% | 6.1% | 2.96 | 2.92 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 28.4 | 41.7 | 197.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.0% | 6.3% | 3.11 | 3.17 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 67.2 | 96.4 |
4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 73.2 | 6 | 4 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.89 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 33.4 | 46.6 | 174.2 | 14 | 8 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 2.89 | 3.18 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 64.8 | 90.5 |
5 | Chris Sale | 73.2 | 3 | 4 | 30.9% | 7.4% | 2.93 | 2.92 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.4 | 38.4 | 182.2 | 11 | 8 | 30.5% | 7.0% | 3.01 | 3.02 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 64.4 | 94.5 |
6 | Kodai Senga | 68.0 | 6 | 3 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 1.59 | 3.29 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 43.7 | 169.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.82 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 61.6 | 77.0 |
7 | Robbie Ray | 77.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.4% | 10.1% | 2.44 | 3.03 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 34.4 | 47.0 | 174.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 3.15 | 3.53 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 59.6 | 78.4 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 75.1 | 3 | 5 | 35.4% | 7.2% | 2.87 | 2.58 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 27.5 | 43.6 | 177.1 | 10 | 11 | 31.1% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.19 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 57.4 | 83.2 |
9 | Sonny Gray | 75.1 | 7 | 1 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 3.35 | 3.11 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 36.4 | 182.1 | 14 | 7 | 25.9% | 5.6% | 3.46 | 3.33 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 78.4 |
10 | Freddy Peralta | 77.0 | 5 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.69 | 3.88 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 28.3 | 33.6 | 178.0 | 11 | 10 | 25.7% | 9.4% | 3.34 | 3.94 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 53.1 | 64.1 |
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