Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 90.1 | 7 | 2 | 32.7% | 2.7% | 1.99 | 1.88 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 43.3 | 69.6 | 202.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 3.8% | 2.36 | 2.27 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 87.6 | 137.8 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 96.1 | 6 | 4 | 30.6% | 7.3% | 2.24 | 2.73 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 41.9 | 60.8 | 190.1 | 13 | 8 | 30.8% | 7.4% | 2.60 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 76.8 | 113.2 |
3 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 196.0 | 17 | 6 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76.2 | 104.2 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.70 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.6 | 181.0 | 15 | 8 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.78 | 3.21 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 69.9 | 95.8 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 90.0 | 7 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 46.8 | 202.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 3.20 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 64.5 | 93.7 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.42 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.8 | 160.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 2.75 | 3.28 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 60.5 | 82.2 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 173.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 2.85 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 60.4 | 86.6 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.28 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 33.6 | 45.1 | 186.2 | 15 | 10 | 29.2% | 8.6% | 3.42 | 3.58 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 59.5 | 78.5 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.33 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 154.1 | 9 | 7 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.74 | 3.06 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 79.4 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.42 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.5 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.5% | 5.4% | 3.41 | 3.63 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 52.3 | 68.6 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 90.1 | 7 | 2 | 32.7% | 2.7% | 1.99 | 1.88 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 43.3 | 69.6 | 202.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 3.8% | 2.36 | 2.27 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 87.6 | 137.8 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 96.1 | 6 | 4 | 30.6% | 7.3% | 2.24 | 2.73 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 41.9 | 60.8 | 190.1 | 13 | 8 | 30.8% | 7.4% | 2.60 | 2.78 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 76.8 | 113.2 |
3 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 196.0 | 17 | 6 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 2.62 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76.2 | 104.2 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.70 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.6 | 181.0 | 15 | 8 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.78 | 3.21 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 69.9 | 95.8 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 90.0 | 7 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 46.8 | 202.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 3.20 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 64.5 | 93.7 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.42 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.8 | 160.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 2.75 | 3.28 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 60.5 | 82.2 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 173.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 2.85 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 60.4 | 86.6 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.28 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 33.6 | 45.1 | 186.2 | 15 | 10 | 29.2% | 8.6% | 3.42 | 3.58 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 59.5 | 78.5 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.33 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 154.1 | 9 | 7 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.74 | 3.06 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 79.4 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.42 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.5 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.5% | 5.4% | 3.41 | 3.63 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 52.3 | 68.6 |
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National League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 96.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 1.78 | 2.48 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 64.2 | 196.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.5% | 2.43 | 2.75 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 76.4 | 114.4 |
2 | Logan Webb | 94.1 | 6 | 5 | 27.6% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 2.34 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 36.7 | 59.3 | 209.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 2.88 | 2.73 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 72.7 | 113.8 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.97 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.1 | 198.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.2% | 3.09 | 3.13 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 67.9 | 98.0 |
4 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 185.2 | 12 | 8 | 31.0% | 7.0% | 2.96 | 2.88 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 67.6 | 101.1 |
5 | Kodai Senga | 73.2 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 1.47 | 3.18 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 38.8 | 49.6 | 152.2 | 13 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 2.59 | 3.52 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 60.6 | 77.3 |
6 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 173.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.1% | 9.1% | 3.12 | 3.45 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 60.1 | 80.2 |
7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 78.1 | 6 | 5 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 2.64 | 3.33 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 41.3 | 175.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.08 | 3.36 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 60.0 | 82.2 |
8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 195.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.6% | 4.6% | 3.31 | 3.36 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 56.5 | 81.3 |
9 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 45.9 | 179.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.8% | 7.6% | 3.26 | 3.14 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 56.4 | 83.5 |
10 | Freddy Peralta | 83.0 | 6 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 2.60 | 3.76 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 31.9 | 38.7 | 179.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 3.27 | 3.85 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 55.6 | 68.6 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 96.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 1.78 | 2.48 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 64.2 | 196.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.5% | 2.43 | 2.75 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 76.4 | 114.4 |
2 | Logan Webb | 94.1 | 6 | 5 | 27.6% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 2.34 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 36.7 | 59.3 | 209.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 2.88 | 2.73 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 72.7 | 113.8 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.97 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.1 | 198.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.2% | 3.09 | 3.13 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 67.9 | 98.0 |
4 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 185.2 | 12 | 8 | 31.0% | 7.0% | 2.96 | 2.88 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 67.6 | 101.1 |
5 | Kodai Senga | 73.2 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 1.47 | 3.18 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 38.8 | 49.6 | 152.2 | 13 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 2.59 | 3.52 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 60.6 | 77.3 |
6 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 173.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.1% | 9.1% | 3.12 | 3.45 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 60.1 | 80.2 |
7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 78.1 | 6 | 5 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 2.64 | 3.33 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 41.3 | 175.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.08 | 3.36 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 60.0 | 82.2 |
8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 195.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.6% | 4.6% | 3.31 | 3.36 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 56.5 | 81.3 |
9 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 45.9 | 179.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.8% | 7.6% | 3.26 | 3.14 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 56.4 | 83.5 |
10 | Freddy Peralta | 83.0 | 6 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 2.60 | 3.76 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 31.9 | 38.7 | 179.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 3.27 | 3.85 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 55.6 | 68.6 |
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