Cy Young Award Projections


About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

  • Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
  • FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal83.16233.4%2.2%2.161.863.43.338.262.7198.115631.4%3.6%2.452.317.06.684.3132.4
2Max Fried88.09123.4%5.2%1.842.872.23.243.159.0198.017622.9%6.0%2.643.214.55.476.4104.8
3Garrett Crochet88.06431.3%7.7%2.352.682.53.038.055.8182.013831.3%7.7%2.672.745.35.673.1108.6
4Hunter Brown79.08331.1%8.4%1.822.702.33.540.856.6183.016828.1%8.4%2.803.204.45.371.197.4
5Framber Valdez85.06425.1%8.1%3.073.082.02.427.941.3199.014923.9%8.0%3.263.364.14.560.986.1
6Jacob deGrom76.16225.3%5.8%2.123.421.63.133.642.7162.112627.4%5.6%2.773.353.84.960.781.4
7Kris Bubic79.25425.9%8.2%1.922.562.53.436.053.2175.211924.6%8.3%2.873.144.14.860.687.2
8Carlos Rodón84.28431.0%9.0%2.873.281.82.233.645.1188.2151029.2%8.5%3.433.563.73.459.779.5
9Nathan Eovaldi69.14327.4%3.8%1.562.332.23.134.050.7156.19825.3%5.0%2.763.043.94.455.080.4
10Joe Ryan73.07228.3%5.2%2.963.421.52.027.736.4171.014827.5%5.5%3.423.623.53.553.570.2
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal83.16233.4%2.2%2.161.863.43.338.262.7198.115631.4%3.6%2.452.317.06.684.3132.4
2Max Fried88.09123.4%5.2%1.842.872.23.243.159.0198.017622.9%6.0%2.643.214.55.476.4104.8
3Garrett Crochet88.06431.3%7.7%2.352.682.53.038.055.8182.013831.3%7.7%2.672.745.35.673.1108.6
4Hunter Brown79.08331.1%8.4%1.822.702.33.540.856.6183.016828.1%8.4%2.803.204.45.371.197.4
5Framber Valdez85.06425.1%8.1%3.073.082.02.427.941.3199.014923.9%8.0%3.263.364.14.560.986.1
6Jacob deGrom76.16225.3%5.8%2.123.421.63.133.642.7162.112627.4%5.6%2.773.353.84.960.781.4
7Kris Bubic79.25425.9%8.2%1.922.562.53.436.053.2175.211924.6%8.3%2.873.144.14.860.687.2
8Carlos Rodón84.28431.0%9.0%2.873.281.82.233.645.1188.2151029.2%8.5%3.433.563.73.459.779.5
9Nathan Eovaldi69.14327.4%3.8%1.562.332.23.134.050.7156.19825.3%5.0%2.763.043.94.455.080.4
10Joe Ryan73.07228.3%5.2%2.963.421.52.027.736.4171.014827.5%5.5%3.423.623.53.553.570.2
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National League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Paul Skenes91.04626.7%5.8%1.882.502.93.939.760.0194.0111127.7%6.3%2.462.745.76.676.2114.2
2Logan Webb87.15528.5%4.8%2.582.132.82.333.856.8204.1131025.0%5.0%2.912.625.44.870.1112.7
3Zack Wheeler82.06232.0%6.0%2.852.972.22.731.145.0199.014729.1%6.2%3.083.205.05.468.597.2
4Chris Sale80.24431.7%7.4%2.792.742.22.430.045.8186.212831.0%7.0%2.942.874.75.068.2102.1
5Yoshinobu Yamamoto73.26429.6%8.6%2.202.901.92.633.446.5171.214827.8%7.4%2.883.124.24.564.090.4
6Kodai Senga68.06323.7%10.9%1.593.301.42.934.543.6167.013824.3%10.5%2.803.622.94.561.477.8
7Robbie Ray81.18128.1%10.1%2.552.991.82.534.948.5175.114627.2%9.1%3.133.433.03.960.481.1
8MacKenzie Gore81.13534.8%6.7%2.882.642.62.629.145.9181.191130.9%7.7%3.233.124.54.557.785.4
9Spencer Schwellenbach89.25423.5%3.9%3.113.191.71.827.240.3196.212923.6%4.5%3.343.353.73.956.181.3
10Sonny Gray75.17126.5%4.6%3.353.121.81.524.836.3179.114626.0%5.6%3.413.343.73.454.877.8
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Paul Skenes91.04626.7%5.8%1.882.502.93.939.760.0194.0111127.7%6.3%2.462.745.76.676.2114.2
2Logan Webb87.15528.5%4.8%2.582.132.82.333.856.8204.1131025.0%5.0%2.912.625.44.870.1112.7
3Zack Wheeler82.06232.0%6.0%2.852.972.22.731.145.0199.014729.1%6.2%3.083.205.05.468.597.2
4Chris Sale80.24431.7%7.4%2.792.742.22.430.045.8186.212831.0%7.0%2.942.874.75.068.2102.1
5Yoshinobu Yamamoto73.26429.6%8.6%2.202.901.92.633.446.5171.214827.8%7.4%2.883.124.24.564.090.4
6Kodai Senga68.06323.7%10.9%1.593.301.42.934.543.6167.013824.3%10.5%2.803.622.94.561.477.8
7Robbie Ray81.18128.1%10.1%2.552.991.82.534.948.5175.114627.2%9.1%3.133.433.03.960.481.1
8MacKenzie Gore81.13534.8%6.7%2.882.642.62.629.145.9181.191130.9%7.7%3.233.124.54.557.785.4
9Spencer Schwellenbach89.25423.5%3.9%3.113.191.71.827.240.3196.212923.6%4.5%3.343.353.73.956.181.3
10Sonny Gray75.17126.5%4.6%3.353.121.81.524.836.3179.114626.0%5.6%3.413.343.73.454.877.8
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