Cy Young Award Projections


About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

  • Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
  • FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal90.17232.7%2.7%1.991.883.63.843.369.6202.115631.1%3.8%2.362.277.27.087.6137.8
2Garrett Crochet96.16430.6%7.3%2.242.732.73.541.960.8190.113830.8%7.4%2.602.785.56.176.8113.2
3Max Fried88.09123.4%5.2%1.842.872.23.243.159.0196.017623.0%5.9%2.623.214.55.476.2104.2
4Hunter Brown79.08331.1%8.4%1.822.702.33.540.856.6181.015828.1%8.4%2.783.214.45.269.995.8
5Framber Valdez90.07426.7%7.8%3.102.882.32.530.646.8202.015924.9%7.9%3.213.204.54.764.593.7
6Jacob deGrom76.16225.3%5.8%2.123.421.63.133.642.8160.112627.4%5.5%2.753.283.74.860.582.2
7Kris Bubic79.25425.9%8.2%1.922.562.53.336.053.2173.211924.6%8.2%2.853.144.14.860.486.6
8Carlos Rodón84.28431.0%9.0%2.873.281.82.233.645.1186.2151029.2%8.6%3.423.583.73.459.578.5
9Nathan Eovaldi69.14327.4%3.8%1.562.332.23.134.050.7154.19725.3%5.0%2.743.063.84.454.879.4
10Joe Ryan73.07228.3%5.2%2.963.421.52.027.736.5169.013727.5%5.4%3.413.633.53.552.368.6
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal90.17232.7%2.7%1.991.883.63.843.369.6202.115631.1%3.8%2.362.277.27.087.6137.8
2Garrett Crochet96.16430.6%7.3%2.242.732.73.541.960.8190.113830.8%7.4%2.602.785.56.176.8113.2
3Max Fried88.09123.4%5.2%1.842.872.23.243.159.0196.017623.0%5.9%2.623.214.55.476.2104.2
4Hunter Brown79.08331.1%8.4%1.822.702.33.540.856.6181.015828.1%8.4%2.783.214.45.269.995.8
5Framber Valdez90.07426.7%7.8%3.102.882.32.530.646.8202.015924.9%7.9%3.213.204.54.764.593.7
6Jacob deGrom76.16225.3%5.8%2.123.421.63.133.642.8160.112627.4%5.5%2.753.283.74.860.582.2
7Kris Bubic79.25425.9%8.2%1.922.562.53.336.053.2173.211924.6%8.2%2.853.144.14.860.486.6
8Carlos Rodón84.28431.0%9.0%2.873.281.82.233.645.1186.2151029.2%8.6%3.423.583.73.459.578.5
9Nathan Eovaldi69.14327.4%3.8%1.562.332.23.134.050.7154.19725.3%5.0%2.743.063.84.454.879.4
10Joe Ryan73.07228.3%5.2%2.963.421.52.027.736.5169.013727.5%5.4%3.413.633.53.552.368.6
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National League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Paul Skenes96.04626.6%6.0%1.782.483.04.242.764.2196.0101027.6%6.5%2.432.755.86.976.4114.4
2Logan Webb94.16527.6%5.3%2.582.342.82.636.759.3209.1141024.6%5.3%2.882.735.35.172.7113.8
3Zack Wheeler82.06232.0%6.0%2.852.972.22.731.145.1198.014729.1%6.2%3.093.135.05.467.998.0
4Chris Sale80.24431.7%7.4%2.792.742.22.430.045.8185.212831.0%7.0%2.962.884.75.067.6101.1
5Kodai Senga73.27323.9%10.6%1.473.181.63.338.849.6152.213724.3%10.3%2.593.522.94.660.677.3
6Robbie Ray81.18128.1%10.1%2.552.991.82.534.948.5173.114627.1%9.1%3.123.453.03.960.180.2
7Yoshinobu Yamamoto78.16528.6%9.5%2.643.331.62.331.241.3175.113927.2%8.0%3.083.363.74.160.082.2
8Spencer Schwellenbach89.25423.5%3.9%3.113.191.71.827.240.3195.212923.6%4.6%3.313.363.73.856.581.3
9MacKenzie Gore81.13534.8%6.7%2.882.632.62.629.145.9179.191130.8%7.6%3.263.144.54.556.483.5
10Freddy Peralta83.06424.5%9.3%2.603.761.52.831.938.7179.0121025.6%9.1%3.273.853.14.355.668.6
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Paul Skenes96.04626.6%6.0%1.782.483.04.242.764.2196.0101027.6%6.5%2.432.755.86.976.4114.4
2Logan Webb94.16527.6%5.3%2.582.342.82.636.759.3209.1141024.6%5.3%2.882.735.35.172.7113.8
3Zack Wheeler82.06232.0%6.0%2.852.972.22.731.145.1198.014729.1%6.2%3.093.135.05.467.998.0
4Chris Sale80.24431.7%7.4%2.792.742.22.430.045.8185.212831.0%7.0%2.962.884.75.067.6101.1
5Kodai Senga73.27323.9%10.6%1.473.181.63.338.849.6152.213724.3%10.3%2.593.522.94.660.677.3
6Robbie Ray81.18128.1%10.1%2.552.991.82.534.948.5173.114627.1%9.1%3.123.453.03.960.180.2
7Yoshinobu Yamamoto78.16528.6%9.5%2.643.331.62.331.241.3175.113927.2%8.0%3.083.363.74.160.082.2
8Spencer Schwellenbach89.25423.5%3.9%3.113.191.71.827.240.3195.212923.6%4.6%3.313.363.73.856.581.3
9MacKenzie Gore81.13534.8%6.7%2.882.632.62.629.145.9179.191130.8%7.6%3.263.144.54.556.483.5
10Freddy Peralta83.06424.5%9.3%2.603.761.52.831.938.7179.0121025.6%9.1%3.273.853.14.355.668.6
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