Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 90.1 | 7 | 2 | 32.7% | 2.7% | 1.99 | 1.88 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 43.3 | 69.6 | 201.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 3.9% | 2.37 | 2.28 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 86.9 | 136.5 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 96.1 | 6 | 4 | 30.6% | 7.3% | 2.24 | 2.73 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 41.9 | 60.8 | 189.1 | 13 | 8 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 2.61 | 2.79 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 76.2 | 112.2 |
3 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 195.0 | 17 | 6 | 23.0% | 6.0% | 2.63 | 3.22 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 75.6 | 103.3 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 86.0 | 8 | 3 | 32.3% | 8.0% | 1.88 | 2.67 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 43.5 | 61.0 | 187.0 | 15 | 8 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 2.74 | 3.17 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 73.1 | 100.8 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 90.0 | 7 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 3.10 | 2.87 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 46.9 | 201.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 3.22 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 63.9 | 92.7 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 82.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.4% | 5.4% | 2.19 | 3.24 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 35.2 | 46.7 | 166.1 | 11 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 2.76 | 3.20 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 61.1 | 85.0 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 172.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.87 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 59.8 | 85.6 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 89.2 | 8 | 5 | 30.1% | 9.0% | 3.01 | 3.27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 33.5 | 45.7 | 190.2 | 15 | 11 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 59.6 | 78.8 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.32 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 159.1 | 10 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.77 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 82.6 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 80.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.4% | 2.93 | 3.45 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 29.9 | 39.2 | 175.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.39 | 3.58 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 53.9 | 71.7 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 90.1 | 7 | 2 | 32.7% | 2.7% | 1.99 | 1.88 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 43.3 | 69.6 | 201.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 3.9% | 2.37 | 2.28 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 86.9 | 136.5 |
2 | Garrett Crochet | 96.1 | 6 | 4 | 30.6% | 7.3% | 2.24 | 2.73 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 41.9 | 60.8 | 189.1 | 13 | 8 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 2.61 | 2.79 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 76.2 | 112.2 |
3 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 195.0 | 17 | 6 | 23.0% | 6.0% | 2.63 | 3.22 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 75.6 | 103.3 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 86.0 | 8 | 3 | 32.3% | 8.0% | 1.88 | 2.67 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 43.5 | 61.0 | 187.0 | 15 | 8 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 2.74 | 3.17 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 73.1 | 100.8 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 90.0 | 7 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 3.10 | 2.87 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 30.6 | 46.9 | 201.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 3.22 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 63.9 | 92.7 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 82.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.4% | 5.4% | 2.19 | 3.24 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 35.2 | 46.7 | 166.1 | 11 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 2.76 | 3.20 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 61.1 | 85.0 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 172.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.87 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 59.8 | 85.6 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 89.2 | 8 | 5 | 30.1% | 9.0% | 3.01 | 3.27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 33.5 | 45.7 | 190.2 | 15 | 11 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 59.6 | 78.8 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.32 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 159.1 | 10 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.77 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 82.6 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 80.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.4% | 2.93 | 3.45 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 29.9 | 39.2 | 175.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.39 | 3.58 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 53.9 | 71.7 |
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National League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 96.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 1.78 | 2.48 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 64.2 | 195.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.5% | 2.40 | 2.77 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 76.7 | 114.1 |
2 | Logan Webb | 94.1 | 6 | 5 | 27.6% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 2.34 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 36.7 | 59.3 | 207.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 2.91 | 2.74 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 71.6 | 112.2 |
3 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 184.2 | 12 | 8 | 30.9% | 7.1% | 2.92 | 2.90 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 67.9 | 100.9 |
4 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.96 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.1 | 196.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.3% | 3.08 | 3.15 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 67.7 | 97.1 |
5 | Kodai Senga | 73.2 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 1.47 | 3.18 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 38.8 | 49.6 | 151.2 | 13 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 2.55 | 3.54 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 61.0 | 77.3 |
6 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 172.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 3.13 | 3.47 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 59.5 | 79.2 |
7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 78.1 | 6 | 5 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 2.64 | 3.33 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 41.4 | 174.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 3.10 | 3.37 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 59.4 | 81.2 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 46.0 | 178.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.9% | 7.7% | 3.23 | 3.15 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 83.5 |
9 | Freddy Peralta | 83.0 | 6 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 2.60 | 3.76 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 31.9 | 38.7 | 178.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 3.24 | 3.87 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 55.9 | 68.3 |
10 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 194.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.5% | 4.6% | 3.33 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 55.8 | 80.0 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 96.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 1.78 | 2.48 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 42.7 | 64.2 | 195.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.5% | 2.40 | 2.77 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 76.7 | 114.1 |
2 | Logan Webb | 94.1 | 6 | 5 | 27.6% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 2.34 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 36.7 | 59.3 | 207.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 2.91 | 2.74 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 71.6 | 112.2 |
3 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 184.2 | 12 | 8 | 30.9% | 7.1% | 2.92 | 2.90 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 67.9 | 100.9 |
4 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.96 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.1 | 196.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.3% | 3.08 | 3.15 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 67.7 | 97.1 |
5 | Kodai Senga | 73.2 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 1.47 | 3.18 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 38.8 | 49.6 | 151.2 | 13 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 2.55 | 3.54 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 61.0 | 77.3 |
6 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 172.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 3.13 | 3.47 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 59.5 | 79.2 |
7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 78.1 | 6 | 5 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 2.64 | 3.33 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 41.4 | 174.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 3.10 | 3.37 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 59.4 | 81.2 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 46.0 | 178.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.9% | 7.7% | 3.23 | 3.15 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 83.5 |
9 | Freddy Peralta | 83.0 | 6 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 2.60 | 3.76 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 31.9 | 38.7 | 178.0 | 12 | 9 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 3.24 | 3.87 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 55.9 | 68.3 |
10 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 194.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.5% | 4.6% | 3.33 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 55.8 | 80.0 |
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