Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	83.1	6	2	33.4%	2.2%	2.16	1.85	3.4	3.3	38.2	62.7	200.1	15	7	31.4%	3.7%	2.47	2.31	7.1	6.6	84.6	133.4
2	Max Fried	81.0	8	1	24.1%	5.6%	1.78	2.79	2.1	2.9	40.2	55.6	193.0	16	6	23.2%	6.3%	2.66	3.18	4.4	5.1	73.7	102.1
3	Garrett Crochet	88.0	6	4	31.3%	7.7%	2.35	2.67	2.5	3.0	38.0	55.9	184.0	13	8	31.2%	7.6%	2.69	2.73	5.4	5.6	73.3	109.6
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.69	2.4	3.5	40.8	56.7	185.0	16	9	28.0%	8.3%	2.82	3.18	4.5	5.2	71.3	98.4
5	Kris Bubic	75.1	5	3	26.9%	7.5%	1.43	2.45	2.5	3.7	38.6	55.8	172.1	11	8	25.2%	7.8%	2.66	3.06	4.2	5.2	63.9	91.4
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.41	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	164.1	12	6	27.4%	5.6%	2.74	3.32	3.8	4.9	61.9	83.3
7	Framber Valdez	85.0	6	4	25.1%	8.1%	3.07	3.07	2.0	2.4	27.9	41.4	202.0	14	9	23.8%	8.0%	3.25	3.35	4.2	4.6	61.6	87.3
8	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.27	1.8	2.1	33.6	45.2	190.2	16	10	29.1%	8.5%	3.45	3.62	3.7	3.5	60.9	79.6
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.8	158.1	9	8	25.3%	5.1%	2.79	3.05	3.9	4.4	55.2	80.6
10	Joe Ryan	73.0	7	2	28.3%	5.2%	2.96	3.41	1.5	2.0	27.7	36.5	173.0	14	8	27.4%	5.4%	3.43	3.59	3.6	3.5	53.7	71.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	83.1	6	2	33.4%	2.2%	2.16	1.85	3.4	3.3	38.2	62.7	200.1	15	7	31.4%	3.7%	2.47	2.31	7.1	6.6	84.6	133.4
2	Max Fried	81.0	8	1	24.1%	5.6%	1.78	2.79	2.1	2.9	40.2	55.6	193.0	16	6	23.2%	6.3%	2.66	3.18	4.4	5.1	73.7	102.1
3	Garrett Crochet	88.0	6	4	31.3%	7.7%	2.35	2.67	2.5	3.0	38.0	55.9	184.0	13	8	31.2%	7.6%	2.69	2.73	5.4	5.6	73.3	109.6
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.69	2.4	3.5	40.8	56.7	185.0	16	9	28.0%	8.3%	2.82	3.18	4.5	5.2	71.3	98.4
5	Kris Bubic	75.1	5	3	26.9%	7.5%	1.43	2.45	2.5	3.7	38.6	55.8	172.1	11	8	25.2%	7.8%	2.66	3.06	4.2	5.2	63.9	91.4
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.41	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	164.1	12	6	27.4%	5.6%	2.74	3.32	3.8	4.9	61.9	83.3
7	Framber Valdez	85.0	6	4	25.1%	8.1%	3.07	3.07	2.0	2.4	27.9	41.4	202.0	14	9	23.8%	8.0%	3.25	3.35	4.2	4.6	61.6	87.3
8	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.27	1.8	2.1	33.6	45.2	190.2	16	10	29.1%	8.5%	3.45	3.62	3.7	3.5	60.9	79.6
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.8	158.1	9	8	25.3%	5.1%	2.79	3.05	3.9	4.4	55.2	80.6
10	Joe Ryan	73.0	7	2	28.3%	5.2%	2.96	3.41	1.5	2.0	27.7	36.5	173.0	14	8	27.4%	5.4%	3.43	3.59	3.6	3.5	53.7	71.1

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	91.0	4	6	26.7%	5.8%	1.88	2.49	2.9	3.9	39.7	60.0	196.0	11	11	27.8%	6.3%	2.48	2.73	5.7	6.6	76.5	115.1
2	Logan Webb	87.1	5	5	28.5%	4.8%	2.58	2.12	2.8	2.3	33.8	56.9	207.1	13	10	25.0%	5.1%	2.91	2.68	5.4	4.9	70.9	112.8
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.96	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	201.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.09	3.19	5.1	5.4	68.8	98.1
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.3	30.0	45.8	188.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.96	2.92	4.8	5.0	68.5	101.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	73.2	6	4	29.6%	8.6%	2.20	2.89	1.9	2.5	33.4	46.6	173.2	14	8	27.8%	7.4%	2.90	3.11	4.2	4.5	64.2	91.0
6	Kodai Senga	68.0	6	3	23.7%	10.9%	1.59	3.29	1.4	2.9	34.5	43.6	169.0	13	8	24.3%	10.5%	2.82	3.68	2.9	4.4	61.6	77.0
7	Robbie Ray	77.1	8	1	28.4%	10.1%	2.44	3.03	1.6	2.7	34.4	47.0	174.1	14	6	27.3%	9.1%	3.15	3.52	2.9	4.1	59.7	78.7
8	MacKenzie Gore	75.1	3	5	35.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.58	2.4	2.4	27.5	43.5	177.1	10	11	30.9%	8.1%	3.25	3.20	4.3	4.3	57.3	82.9
9	Sonny Gray	75.1	7	1	26.5%	4.6%	3.35	3.11	1.8	1.5	24.8	36.4	181.1	14	6	25.9%	5.6%	3.42	3.34	3.8	3.4	55.0	78.4
10	Clay Holmes	73.1	7	3	21.5%	7.6%	2.95	3.82	1.0	1.8	26.2	31.7	176.1	15	9	21.4%	7.9%	3.37	3.70	2.5	3.2	53.1	68.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	91.0	4	6	26.7%	5.8%	1.88	2.49	2.9	3.9	39.7	60.0	196.0	11	11	27.8%	6.3%	2.48	2.73	5.7	6.6	76.5	115.1
2	Logan Webb	87.1	5	5	28.5%	4.8%	2.58	2.12	2.8	2.3	33.8	56.9	207.1	13	10	25.0%	5.1%	2.91	2.68	5.4	4.9	70.9	112.8
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.96	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	201.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.09	3.19	5.1	5.4	68.8	98.1
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.3	30.0	45.8	188.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.96	2.92	4.8	5.0	68.5	101.6
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	73.2	6	4	29.6%	8.6%	2.20	2.89	1.9	2.5	33.4	46.6	173.2	14	8	27.8%	7.4%	2.90	3.11	4.2	4.5	64.2	91.0
6	Kodai Senga	68.0	6	3	23.7%	10.9%	1.59	3.29	1.4	2.9	34.5	43.6	169.0	13	8	24.3%	10.5%	2.82	3.68	2.9	4.4	61.6	77.0
7	Robbie Ray	77.1	8	1	28.4%	10.1%	2.44	3.03	1.6	2.7	34.4	47.0	174.1	14	6	27.3%	9.1%	3.15	3.52	2.9	4.1	59.7	78.7
8	MacKenzie Gore	75.1	3	5	35.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.58	2.4	2.4	27.5	43.5	177.1	10	11	30.9%	8.1%	3.25	3.20	4.3	4.3	57.3	82.9
9	Sonny Gray	75.1	7	1	26.5%	4.6%	3.35	3.11	1.8	1.5	24.8	36.4	181.1	14	6	25.9%	5.6%	3.42	3.34	3.8	3.4	55.0	78.4
10	Clay Holmes	73.1	7	3	21.5%	7.6%	2.95	3.82	1.0	1.8	26.2	31.7	176.1	15	9	21.4%	7.9%	3.37	3.70	2.5	3.2	53.1	68.7

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG