Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	204.1	16	6	31.1%	3.8%	2.38	2.33	7.2	7.1	88.7	137.9
2	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	197.0	17	6	22.9%	5.9%	2.65	3.20	4.5	5.4	75.8	104.2
3	Garrett Crochet	88.0	6	4	31.3%	7.7%	2.35	2.68	2.5	3.0	38.0	55.8	182.0	13	8	31.3%	7.7%	2.67	2.74	5.3	5.6	73.1	108.6
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.70	2.3	3.5	40.8	56.6	182.0	15	8	28.1%	8.4%	2.82	3.20	4.4	5.3	69.5	95.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.88	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.8	203.0	15	9	24.8%	7.8%	3.24	3.26	4.5	4.7	64.1	92.2
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.42	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	161.1	12	6	27.4%	5.7%	2.73	3.28	3.8	4.9	61.1	82.9
7	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.28	1.8	2.2	33.6	45.1	187.2	15	10	29.2%	8.5%	3.40	3.57	3.7	3.5	60.1	79.5
8	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	174.2	11	9	24.6%	8.3%	2.89	3.15	4.1	4.9	60.0	86.2
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.33	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	155.1	9	8	25.3%	5.0%	2.72	3.05	3.8	4.4	55.4	80.4
10	Drew Rasmussen	69.0	5	4	22.5%	5.3%	2.22	3.24	1.4	2.7	28.4	38.1	155.0	11	8	22.8%	5.7%	2.90	3.33	2.9	4.0	52.5	72.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	204.1	16	6	31.1%	3.8%	2.38	2.33	7.2	7.1	88.7	137.9
2	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	197.0	17	6	22.9%	5.9%	2.65	3.20	4.5	5.4	75.8	104.2
3	Garrett Crochet	88.0	6	4	31.3%	7.7%	2.35	2.68	2.5	3.0	38.0	55.8	182.0	13	8	31.3%	7.7%	2.67	2.74	5.3	5.6	73.1	108.6
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.70	2.3	3.5	40.8	56.6	182.0	15	8	28.1%	8.4%	2.82	3.20	4.4	5.3	69.5	95.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.88	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.8	203.0	15	9	24.8%	7.8%	3.24	3.26	4.5	4.7	64.1	92.2
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.42	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	161.1	12	6	27.4%	5.7%	2.73	3.28	3.8	4.9	61.1	82.9
7	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.28	1.8	2.2	33.6	45.1	187.2	15	10	29.2%	8.5%	3.40	3.57	3.7	3.5	60.1	79.5
8	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	174.2	11	9	24.6%	8.3%	2.89	3.15	4.1	4.9	60.0	86.2
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.33	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	155.1	9	8	25.3%	5.0%	2.72	3.05	3.8	4.4	55.4	80.4
10	Drew Rasmussen	69.0	5	4	22.5%	5.3%	2.22	3.24	1.4	2.7	28.4	38.1	155.0	11	8	22.8%	5.7%	2.90	3.33	2.9	4.0	52.5	72.7

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	91.0	4	6	26.7%	5.8%	1.88	2.49	2.9	3.8	39.7	60.0	193.0	11	10	27.8%	6.3%	2.47	2.75	5.7	6.6	75.6	113.2
2	Logan Webb	87.1	5	5	28.5%	4.8%	2.58	2.13	2.8	2.3	33.8	56.8	203.1	13	10	25.0%	5.0%	2.88	2.63	5.4	4.9	70.5	112.7
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.97	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	199.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.08	3.20	5.0	5.4	68.5	97.2
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	186.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.94	2.87	4.7	5.0	68.2	102.1
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	73.2	6	4	29.6%	8.6%	2.20	2.90	1.9	2.6	33.4	46.5	171.2	14	8	27.8%	7.4%	2.88	3.12	4.2	4.5	64.0	90.4
6	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.19	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	153.2	13	7	24.3%	10.4%	2.58	3.52	2.9	4.5	61.2	77.9
7	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	174.1	14	6	27.1%	9.2%	3.15	3.46	3.0	3.9	59.7	79.8
8	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	45.9	180.1	9	11	30.9%	7.7%	3.24	3.13	4.5	4.5	57.1	84.5
9	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	196.2	12	9	23.6%	4.5%	3.34	3.35	3.7	3.8	56.1	81.3
10	Freddy Peralta	77.0	5	4	24.5%	9.7%	2.69	3.89	1.3	2.5	28.3	33.5	174.0	11	10	25.6%	9.4%	3.31	3.98	2.8	3.9	52.6	62.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	91.0	4	6	26.7%	5.8%	1.88	2.49	2.9	3.8	39.7	60.0	193.0	11	10	27.8%	6.3%	2.47	2.75	5.7	6.6	75.6	113.2
2	Logan Webb	87.1	5	5	28.5%	4.8%	2.58	2.13	2.8	2.3	33.8	56.8	203.1	13	10	25.0%	5.0%	2.88	2.63	5.4	4.9	70.5	112.7
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.97	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	199.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.08	3.20	5.0	5.4	68.5	97.2
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	186.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.94	2.87	4.7	5.0	68.2	102.1
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	73.2	6	4	29.6%	8.6%	2.20	2.90	1.9	2.6	33.4	46.5	171.2	14	8	27.8%	7.4%	2.88	3.12	4.2	4.5	64.0	90.4
6	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.19	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	153.2	13	7	24.3%	10.4%	2.58	3.52	2.9	4.5	61.2	77.9
7	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	174.1	14	6	27.1%	9.2%	3.15	3.46	3.0	3.9	59.7	79.8
8	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	45.9	180.1	9	11	30.9%	7.7%	3.24	3.13	4.5	4.5	57.1	84.5
9	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	196.2	12	9	23.6%	4.5%	3.34	3.35	3.7	3.8	56.1	81.3
10	Freddy Peralta	77.0	5	4	24.5%	9.7%	2.69	3.89	1.3	2.5	28.3	33.5	174.0	11	10	25.6%	9.4%	3.31	3.98	2.8	3.9	52.6	62.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG