Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 83.1 | 6 | 2 | 33.4% | 2.2% | 2.16 | 1.86 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 62.7 | 198.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.4% | 3.6% | 2.45 | 2.31 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 84.3 | 132.4 |
2 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 198.0 | 17 | 6 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 2.64 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76.4 | 104.8 |
3 | Garrett Crochet | 88.0 | 6 | 4 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.35 | 2.68 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 38.0 | 55.8 | 182.0 | 13 | 8 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.67 | 2.74 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 73.1 | 108.6 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.70 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.6 | 183.0 | 16 | 8 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.80 | 3.20 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 71.1 | 97.4 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 85.0 | 6 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.07 | 3.08 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 41.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 3.26 | 3.36 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 60.9 | 86.1 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.42 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.7 | 162.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.6% | 2.77 | 3.35 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 60.7 | 81.4 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 175.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.87 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 60.6 | 87.2 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.28 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 33.6 | 45.1 | 188.2 | 15 | 10 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 3.43 | 3.56 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 59.7 | 79.5 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.33 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 156.1 | 9 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.76 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 55.0 | 80.4 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.42 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.4 | 171.0 | 14 | 8 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.42 | 3.62 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 53.5 | 70.2 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Tarik Skubal | 83.1 | 6 | 2 | 33.4% | 2.2% | 2.16 | 1.86 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 38.2 | 62.7 | 198.1 | 15 | 6 | 31.4% | 3.6% | 2.45 | 2.31 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 84.3 | 132.4 |
2 | Max Fried | 88.0 | 9 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 1.84 | 2.87 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 43.1 | 59.0 | 198.0 | 17 | 6 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 2.64 | 3.21 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76.4 | 104.8 |
3 | Garrett Crochet | 88.0 | 6 | 4 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.35 | 2.68 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 38.0 | 55.8 | 182.0 | 13 | 8 | 31.3% | 7.7% | 2.67 | 2.74 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 73.1 | 108.6 |
4 | Hunter Brown | 79.0 | 8 | 3 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 2.70 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 56.6 | 183.0 | 16 | 8 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.80 | 3.20 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 71.1 | 97.4 |
5 | Framber Valdez | 85.0 | 6 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.07 | 3.08 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 41.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 3.26 | 3.36 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 60.9 | 86.1 |
6 | Jacob deGrom | 76.1 | 6 | 2 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 2.12 | 3.42 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 33.6 | 42.7 | 162.1 | 12 | 6 | 27.4% | 5.6% | 2.77 | 3.35 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 60.7 | 81.4 |
7 | Kris Bubic | 79.2 | 5 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 36.0 | 53.2 | 175.2 | 11 | 9 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.87 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 60.6 | 87.2 |
8 | Carlos Rodón | 84.2 | 8 | 4 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.87 | 3.28 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 33.6 | 45.1 | 188.2 | 15 | 10 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 3.43 | 3.56 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 59.7 | 79.5 |
9 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69.1 | 4 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.8% | 1.56 | 2.33 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 34.0 | 50.7 | 156.1 | 9 | 8 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 2.76 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 55.0 | 80.4 |
10 | Joe Ryan | 73.0 | 7 | 2 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 2.96 | 3.42 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 27.7 | 36.4 | 171.0 | 14 | 8 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.42 | 3.62 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 53.5 | 70.2 |
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National League
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 91.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 2.50 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 39.7 | 60.0 | 194.0 | 11 | 11 | 27.7% | 6.3% | 2.46 | 2.74 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 76.2 | 114.2 |
2 | Logan Webb | 87.1 | 5 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.8% | 2.58 | 2.13 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 33.8 | 56.8 | 204.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 2.91 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 70.1 | 112.7 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.97 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.0 | 199.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.2% | 3.08 | 3.20 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 68.5 | 97.2 |
4 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 186.2 | 12 | 8 | 31.0% | 7.0% | 2.94 | 2.87 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 68.2 | 102.1 |
5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 73.2 | 6 | 4 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.90 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 33.4 | 46.5 | 171.2 | 14 | 8 | 27.8% | 7.4% | 2.88 | 3.12 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 64.0 | 90.4 |
6 | Kodai Senga | 68.0 | 6 | 3 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 1.59 | 3.30 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 43.6 | 167.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.80 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 61.4 | 77.8 |
7 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 175.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 3.13 | 3.43 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 81.1 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.64 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 45.9 | 181.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.9% | 7.7% | 3.23 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 57.7 | 85.4 |
9 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 196.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.6% | 4.5% | 3.34 | 3.35 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 56.1 | 81.3 |
10 | Sonny Gray | 75.1 | 7 | 1 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 3.35 | 3.12 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 36.3 | 179.1 | 14 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 3.41 | 3.34 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 54.8 | 77.8 |
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
1 | Paul Skenes | 91.0 | 4 | 6 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 1.88 | 2.50 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 39.7 | 60.0 | 194.0 | 11 | 11 | 27.7% | 6.3% | 2.46 | 2.74 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 76.2 | 114.2 |
2 | Logan Webb | 87.1 | 5 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.8% | 2.58 | 2.13 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 33.8 | 56.8 | 204.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 2.91 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 70.1 | 112.7 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 82.0 | 6 | 2 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 2.85 | 2.97 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 31.1 | 45.0 | 199.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.1% | 6.2% | 3.08 | 3.20 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 68.5 | 97.2 |
4 | Chris Sale | 80.2 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 2.79 | 2.74 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 30.0 | 45.8 | 186.2 | 12 | 8 | 31.0% | 7.0% | 2.94 | 2.87 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 68.2 | 102.1 |
5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 73.2 | 6 | 4 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.90 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 33.4 | 46.5 | 171.2 | 14 | 8 | 27.8% | 7.4% | 2.88 | 3.12 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 64.0 | 90.4 |
6 | Kodai Senga | 68.0 | 6 | 3 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 1.59 | 3.30 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 43.6 | 167.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 2.80 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 61.4 | 77.8 |
7 | Robbie Ray | 81.1 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 2.55 | 2.99 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 34.9 | 48.5 | 175.1 | 14 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 3.13 | 3.43 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 81.1 |
8 | MacKenzie Gore | 81.1 | 3 | 5 | 34.8% | 6.7% | 2.88 | 2.64 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 45.9 | 181.1 | 9 | 11 | 30.9% | 7.7% | 3.23 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 57.7 | 85.4 |
9 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 89.2 | 5 | 4 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 27.2 | 40.3 | 196.2 | 12 | 9 | 23.6% | 4.5% | 3.34 | 3.35 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 56.1 | 81.3 |
10 | Sonny Gray | 75.1 | 7 | 1 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 3.35 | 3.12 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 36.3 | 179.1 | 14 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 3.41 | 3.34 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 54.8 | 77.8 |
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