Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	194.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.94	2.59	6.2	7.5	93.3	134.7
2	Dylan Cease	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.56	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.9	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.59	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.3
3	Parker Messick	183.1	12	9	26.1%	6.6%	2.55	3.08	4.8	6.4	70.8	99.8	184.1	12	9	26.1%	6.5%	2.54	3.10	4.8	6.4	71.4	100.1
4	Drew Rasmussen	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.82	5.0	5.9	68.4	100.6	173.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.65	2.84	5.0	5.9	69.0	100.9
5	Sonny Gray	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.48	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.6	170.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.70	3.49	3.4	6.1	67.0	86.0
6	Nick Martinez	177.1	15	5	15.3%	3.5%	2.94	3.97	2.9	5.7	56.5	66.9	178.1	15	5	15.3%	3.5%	2.98	3.99	2.9	5.7	56.1	66.2
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.48	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.9	185.1	14	8	33.2%	8.1%	3.74	3.50	3.5	3.5	54.6	75.2
8	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.02	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.1	186.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.34	3.04	4.9	4.6	52.2	82.4
9	Sean Burke	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.62	3.2	4.0	51.7	68.4	173.1	11	7	25.8%	8.6%	3.38	3.64	3.2	4.0	51.3	67.8
10	Payton Tolle	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.04	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.5	149.2	9	6	28.3%	6.6%	3.01	3.06	4.1	4.4	51.0	75.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	193.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.95	2.56	6.2	7.5	92.7	134.5	194.2	14	6	31.4%	6.4%	1.94	2.59	6.2	7.5	93.3	134.7
2	Dylan Cease	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.56	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.9	169.0	11	6	34.9%	11.4%	2.40	2.59	5.5	5.4	74.4	110.3
3	Parker Messick	183.1	12	9	26.1%	6.6%	2.55	3.08	4.8	6.4	70.8	99.8	184.1	12	9	26.1%	6.5%	2.54	3.10	4.8	6.4	71.4	100.1
4	Drew Rasmussen	172.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.67	2.82	5.0	5.9	68.4	100.6	173.0	16	5	26.0%	4.8%	2.65	2.84	5.0	5.9	69.0	100.9
5	Sonny Gray	169.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.72	3.48	3.4	6.1	66.4	85.6	170.0	18	5	21.8%	6.7%	2.70	3.49	3.4	6.1	67.0	86.0
6	Nick Martinez	177.1	15	5	15.3%	3.5%	2.94	3.97	2.9	5.7	56.5	66.9	178.1	15	5	15.3%	3.5%	2.98	3.99	2.9	5.7	56.1	66.2
7	Gavin Williams	184.1	14	8	33.2%	8.2%	3.76	3.48	3.5	3.5	54.0	74.9	185.1	14	8	33.2%	8.1%	3.74	3.50	3.5	3.5	54.6	75.2
8	Reid Detmers	185.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.36	3.02	4.9	4.6	51.6	82.1	186.0	7	8	28.5%	6.5%	3.34	3.04	4.9	4.6	52.2	82.4
9	Sean Burke	172.1	11	7	25.8%	8.7%	3.34	3.62	3.2	4.0	51.7	68.4	173.1	11	7	25.8%	8.6%	3.38	3.64	3.2	4.0	51.3	67.8
10	Payton Tolle	148.2	9	6	28.4%	6.6%	3.03	3.04	4.1	4.4	50.4	74.5	149.2	9	6	28.3%	6.6%	3.01	3.06	4.1	4.4	51.0	75.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	169.1	15	5	38.2%	6.5%	1.86	2.16	6.4	7.0	89.4	133.3	170.1	15	5	38.2%	6.5%	1.85	2.19	6.4	7.0	90.0	133.7
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.6	208.0	18	7	26.9%	5.2%	2.90	2.83	6.2	6.3	78.2	116.9
3	Chris Sale	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.29	5.8	6.4	76.3	116.3	163.2	14	9	30.8%	4.7%	2.14	2.32	5.8	6.4	76.9	116.6
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	186.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.52	3.36	4.7	6.7	73.3	97.0
5	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.78	5.5	5.2	68.4	102.6	179.2	14	5	30.4%	7.1%	2.86	2.80	5.5	5.2	69.0	102.9
6	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.1	5.5	64.1	76.9	190.2	16	7	18.2%	7.8%	2.93	3.91	3.1	5.5	63.7	76.2
7	Chase Burns	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.24	4.3	4.7	61.7	83.2	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.28	4.3	4.7	61.7	82.6
8	Cade Cavalli	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.26	3.9	4.1	60.8	84.3	170.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.01	3.28	3.9	4.1	61.4	84.6
9	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	180.2	12	10	25.9%	9.3%	3.14	3.61	3.5	3.7	58.8	76.7
10	Zack Wheeler	156.0	13	5	30.2%	7.6%	3.06	3.34	3.9	4.9	56.8	76.9	157.0	13	5	30.1%	7.5%	3.04	3.36	3.9	4.9	57.4	77.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Jacob Misiorowski	169.1	15	5	38.2%	6.5%	1.86	2.16	6.4	7.0	89.4	133.3	170.1	15	5	38.2%	6.5%	1.85	2.19	6.4	7.0	90.0	133.7
2	Cristopher Sánchez	207.0	18	7	27.0%	5.3%	2.91	2.80	6.2	6.3	77.6	116.6	208.0	18	7	26.9%	5.2%	2.90	2.83	6.2	6.3	78.2	116.9
3	Chris Sale	162.2	14	9	30.9%	4.8%	2.16	2.29	5.8	6.4	76.3	116.3	163.2	14	9	30.8%	4.7%	2.14	2.32	5.8	6.4	76.9	116.6
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.53	3.33	4.7	6.7	72.7	96.7	186.0	14	9	25.7%	5.9%	2.52	3.36	4.7	6.7	73.3	97.0
5	Jesús Luzardo	178.2	14	5	30.4%	7.2%	2.87	2.78	5.5	5.2	68.4	102.6	179.2	14	5	30.4%	7.1%	2.86	2.80	5.5	5.2	69.0	102.9
6	Eduardo Rodriguez	189.2	16	7	18.1%	7.9%	2.89	3.89	3.1	5.5	64.1	76.9	190.2	16	7	18.2%	7.8%	2.93	3.91	3.1	5.5	63.7	76.2
7	Chase Burns	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.24	4.3	4.7	61.7	83.2	154.1	15	3	29.4%	8.9%	2.86	3.28	4.3	4.7	61.7	82.6
8	Cade Cavalli	169.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.02	3.26	3.9	4.1	60.8	84.3	170.2	13	5	28.3%	6.8%	3.01	3.28	3.9	4.1	61.4	84.6
9	Nolan McLean	179.2	12	10	26.0%	9.4%	3.16	3.59	3.5	3.7	58.2	76.4	180.2	12	10	25.9%	9.3%	3.14	3.61	3.5	3.7	58.8	76.7
10	Zack Wheeler	156.0	13	5	30.2%	7.6%	3.06	3.34	3.9	4.9	56.8	76.9	157.0	13	5	30.1%	7.5%	3.04	3.36	3.9	4.9	57.4	77.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG