Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	201.1	15	6	31.1%	3.9%	2.37	2.28	7.1	7.0	86.9	136.5
2	Garrett Crochet	96.1	6	4	30.6%	7.3%	2.24	2.73	2.7	3.5	41.9	60.8	189.1	13	8	30.8%	7.5%	2.61	2.79	5.5	6.0	76.2	112.2
3	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	195.0	17	6	23.0%	6.0%	2.63	3.22	4.4	5.3	75.6	103.3
4	Hunter Brown	86.0	8	3	32.3%	8.0%	1.88	2.67	2.6	3.8	43.5	61.0	187.0	15	8	28.9%	8.2%	2.74	3.17	4.6	5.5	73.1	100.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.87	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.9	201.0	15	9	24.9%	7.9%	3.22	3.21	4.5	4.7	63.9	92.7
6	Jacob deGrom	82.1	6	2	25.4%	5.4%	2.19	3.24	1.9	3.3	35.2	46.7	166.1	11	6	27.4%	5.4%	2.76	3.20	4.1	5.1	61.1	85.0
7	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	172.2	11	9	24.6%	8.3%	2.87	3.15	4.1	4.9	59.8	85.6
8	Carlos Rodón	89.2	8	5	30.1%	9.0%	3.01	3.27	2.0	2.0	33.5	45.7	190.2	15	11	28.7%	8.5%	3.45	3.60	3.8	3.3	59.6	78.8
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	159.1	10	8	25.3%	5.0%	2.77	3.04	3.9	4.5	56.8	82.6
10	Joe Ryan	80.0	7	2	28.3%	5.4%	2.93	3.45	1.6	2.2	29.9	39.2	175.0	13	7	27.5%	5.5%	3.39	3.58	3.6	3.6	53.9	71.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	201.1	15	6	31.1%	3.9%	2.37	2.28	7.1	7.0	86.9	136.5
2	Garrett Crochet	96.1	6	4	30.6%	7.3%	2.24	2.73	2.7	3.5	41.9	60.8	189.1	13	8	30.8%	7.5%	2.61	2.79	5.5	6.0	76.2	112.2
3	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	195.0	17	6	23.0%	6.0%	2.63	3.22	4.4	5.3	75.6	103.3
4	Hunter Brown	86.0	8	3	32.3%	8.0%	1.88	2.67	2.6	3.8	43.5	61.0	187.0	15	8	28.9%	8.2%	2.74	3.17	4.6	5.5	73.1	100.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.87	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.9	201.0	15	9	24.9%	7.9%	3.22	3.21	4.5	4.7	63.9	92.7
6	Jacob deGrom	82.1	6	2	25.4%	5.4%	2.19	3.24	1.9	3.3	35.2	46.7	166.1	11	6	27.4%	5.4%	2.76	3.20	4.1	5.1	61.1	85.0
7	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	172.2	11	9	24.6%	8.3%	2.87	3.15	4.1	4.9	59.8	85.6
8	Carlos Rodón	89.2	8	5	30.1%	9.0%	3.01	3.27	2.0	2.0	33.5	45.7	190.2	15	11	28.7%	8.5%	3.45	3.60	3.8	3.3	59.6	78.8
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.32	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	159.1	10	8	25.3%	5.0%	2.77	3.04	3.9	4.5	56.8	82.6
10	Joe Ryan	80.0	7	2	28.3%	5.4%	2.93	3.45	1.6	2.2	29.9	39.2	175.0	13	7	27.5%	5.5%	3.39	3.58	3.6	3.6	53.9	71.7

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	96.0	4	6	26.6%	6.0%	1.78	2.48	3.0	4.2	42.7	64.2	195.0	10	10	27.5%	6.5%	2.40	2.77	5.7	6.8	76.7	114.1
2	Logan Webb	94.1	6	5	27.6%	5.3%	2.58	2.34	2.8	2.6	36.7	59.3	207.1	14	10	24.7%	5.3%	2.91	2.74	5.2	4.9	71.6	112.2
3	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	184.2	12	8	30.9%	7.1%	2.92	2.90	4.7	5.1	67.9	100.9
4	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.96	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	196.0	14	7	29.1%	6.3%	3.08	3.15	5.0	5.3	67.7	97.1
5	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	151.2	13	7	24.3%	10.4%	2.55	3.54	2.9	4.6	61.0	77.3
6	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	172.1	14	6	27.2%	9.2%	3.13	3.47	3.0	3.9	59.5	79.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	78.1	6	5	28.6%	9.5%	2.64	3.33	1.6	2.3	31.2	41.4	174.1	13	9	27.2%	8.1%	3.10	3.37	3.7	4.1	59.4	81.2
8	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	46.0	178.1	9	11	30.9%	7.7%	3.23	3.15	4.5	4.5	56.8	83.5
9	Freddy Peralta	83.0	6	4	24.5%	9.3%	2.60	3.76	1.5	2.8	31.9	38.7	178.0	12	9	25.5%	9.2%	3.24	3.87	3.1	4.2	55.9	68.3
10	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	194.2	12	9	23.5%	4.6%	3.33	3.38	3.7	3.8	55.8	80.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	96.0	4	6	26.6%	6.0%	1.78	2.48	3.0	4.2	42.7	64.2	195.0	10	10	27.5%	6.5%	2.40	2.77	5.7	6.8	76.7	114.1
2	Logan Webb	94.1	6	5	27.6%	5.3%	2.58	2.34	2.8	2.6	36.7	59.3	207.1	14	10	24.7%	5.3%	2.91	2.74	5.2	4.9	71.6	112.2
3	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	184.2	12	8	30.9%	7.1%	2.92	2.90	4.7	5.1	67.9	100.9
4	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.96	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	196.0	14	7	29.1%	6.3%	3.08	3.15	5.0	5.3	67.7	97.1
5	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	151.2	13	7	24.3%	10.4%	2.55	3.54	2.9	4.6	61.0	77.3
6	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	172.1	14	6	27.2%	9.2%	3.13	3.47	3.0	3.9	59.5	79.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	78.1	6	5	28.6%	9.5%	2.64	3.33	1.6	2.3	31.2	41.4	174.1	13	9	27.2%	8.1%	3.10	3.37	3.7	4.1	59.4	81.2
8	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	46.0	178.1	9	11	30.9%	7.7%	3.23	3.15	4.5	4.5	56.8	83.5
9	Freddy Peralta	83.0	6	4	24.5%	9.3%	2.60	3.76	1.5	2.8	31.9	38.7	178.0	12	9	25.5%	9.2%	3.24	3.87	3.1	4.2	55.9	68.3
10	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	194.2	12	9	23.5%	4.6%	3.33	3.38	3.7	3.8	55.8	80.0

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG