Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	202.1	15	6	31.1%	3.8%	2.36	2.27	7.2	7.0	87.6	137.8
2	Garrett Crochet	96.1	6	4	30.6%	7.3%	2.24	2.73	2.7	3.5	41.9	60.8	190.1	13	8	30.8%	7.4%	2.60	2.78	5.5	6.1	76.8	113.2
3	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	196.0	17	6	23.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.21	4.5	5.4	76.2	104.2
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.70	2.3	3.5	40.8	56.6	181.0	15	8	28.1%	8.4%	2.78	3.21	4.4	5.2	69.9	95.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.88	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.8	202.0	15	9	24.9%	7.9%	3.21	3.20	4.5	4.7	64.5	93.7
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.42	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	160.1	12	6	27.4%	5.5%	2.75	3.28	3.7	4.8	60.5	82.2
7	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	173.2	11	9	24.6%	8.2%	2.85	3.14	4.1	4.8	60.4	86.6
8	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.28	1.8	2.2	33.6	45.1	186.2	15	10	29.2%	8.6%	3.42	3.58	3.7	3.4	59.5	78.5
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.33	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	9	7	25.3%	5.0%	2.74	3.06	3.8	4.4	54.8	79.4
10	Joe Ryan	73.0	7	2	28.3%	5.2%	2.96	3.42	1.5	2.0	27.7	36.5	169.0	13	7	27.5%	5.4%	3.41	3.63	3.5	3.5	52.3	68.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	90.1	7	2	32.7%	2.7%	1.99	1.88	3.6	3.8	43.3	69.6	202.1	15	6	31.1%	3.8%	2.36	2.27	7.2	7.0	87.6	137.8
2	Garrett Crochet	96.1	6	4	30.6%	7.3%	2.24	2.73	2.7	3.5	41.9	60.8	190.1	13	8	30.8%	7.4%	2.60	2.78	5.5	6.1	76.8	113.2
3	Max Fried	88.0	9	1	23.4%	5.2%	1.84	2.87	2.2	3.2	43.1	59.0	196.0	17	6	23.0%	5.9%	2.62	3.21	4.5	5.4	76.2	104.2
4	Hunter Brown	79.0	8	3	31.1%	8.4%	1.82	2.70	2.3	3.5	40.8	56.6	181.0	15	8	28.1%	8.4%	2.78	3.21	4.4	5.2	69.9	95.8
5	Framber Valdez	90.0	7	4	26.7%	7.8%	3.10	2.88	2.3	2.5	30.6	46.8	202.0	15	9	24.9%	7.9%	3.21	3.20	4.5	4.7	64.5	93.7
6	Jacob deGrom	76.1	6	2	25.3%	5.8%	2.12	3.42	1.6	3.1	33.6	42.8	160.1	12	6	27.4%	5.5%	2.75	3.28	3.7	4.8	60.5	82.2
7	Kris Bubic	79.2	5	4	25.9%	8.2%	1.92	2.56	2.5	3.3	36.0	53.2	173.2	11	9	24.6%	8.2%	2.85	3.14	4.1	4.8	60.4	86.6
8	Carlos Rodón	84.2	8	4	31.0%	9.0%	2.87	3.28	1.8	2.2	33.6	45.1	186.2	15	10	29.2%	8.6%	3.42	3.58	3.7	3.4	59.5	78.5
9	Nathan Eovaldi	69.1	4	3	27.4%	3.8%	1.56	2.33	2.2	3.1	34.0	50.7	154.1	9	7	25.3%	5.0%	2.74	3.06	3.8	4.4	54.8	79.4
10	Joe Ryan	73.0	7	2	28.3%	5.2%	2.96	3.42	1.5	2.0	27.7	36.5	169.0	13	7	27.5%	5.4%	3.41	3.63	3.5	3.5	52.3	68.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	96.0	4	6	26.6%	6.0%	1.78	2.48	3.0	4.2	42.7	64.2	196.0	10	10	27.6%	6.5%	2.43	2.75	5.8	6.9	76.4	114.4
2	Logan Webb	94.1	6	5	27.6%	5.3%	2.58	2.34	2.8	2.6	36.7	59.3	209.1	14	10	24.6%	5.3%	2.88	2.73	5.3	5.1	72.7	113.8
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.97	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	198.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.09	3.13	5.0	5.4	67.9	98.0
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	185.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.96	2.88	4.7	5.0	67.6	101.1
5	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	152.2	13	7	24.3%	10.3%	2.59	3.52	2.9	4.6	60.6	77.3
6	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	173.1	14	6	27.1%	9.1%	3.12	3.45	3.0	3.9	60.1	80.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	78.1	6	5	28.6%	9.5%	2.64	3.33	1.6	2.3	31.2	41.3	175.1	13	9	27.2%	8.0%	3.08	3.36	3.7	4.1	60.0	82.2
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	195.2	12	9	23.6%	4.6%	3.31	3.36	3.7	3.8	56.5	81.3
9	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	45.9	179.1	9	11	30.8%	7.6%	3.26	3.14	4.5	4.5	56.4	83.5
10	Freddy Peralta	83.0	6	4	24.5%	9.3%	2.60	3.76	1.5	2.8	31.9	38.7	179.0	12	10	25.6%	9.1%	3.27	3.85	3.1	4.3	55.6	68.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	96.0	4	6	26.6%	6.0%	1.78	2.48	3.0	4.2	42.7	64.2	196.0	10	10	27.6%	6.5%	2.43	2.75	5.8	6.9	76.4	114.4
2	Logan Webb	94.1	6	5	27.6%	5.3%	2.58	2.34	2.8	2.6	36.7	59.3	209.1	14	10	24.6%	5.3%	2.88	2.73	5.3	5.1	72.7	113.8
3	Zack Wheeler	82.0	6	2	32.0%	6.0%	2.85	2.97	2.2	2.7	31.1	45.1	198.0	14	7	29.1%	6.2%	3.09	3.13	5.0	5.4	67.9	98.0
4	Chris Sale	80.2	4	4	31.7%	7.4%	2.79	2.74	2.2	2.4	30.0	45.8	185.2	12	8	31.0%	7.0%	2.96	2.88	4.7	5.0	67.6	101.1
5	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.6	3.3	38.8	49.6	152.2	13	7	24.3%	10.3%	2.59	3.52	2.9	4.6	60.6	77.3
6	Robbie Ray	81.1	8	1	28.1%	10.1%	2.55	2.99	1.8	2.5	34.9	48.5	173.1	14	6	27.1%	9.1%	3.12	3.45	3.0	3.9	60.1	80.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	78.1	6	5	28.6%	9.5%	2.64	3.33	1.6	2.3	31.2	41.3	175.1	13	9	27.2%	8.0%	3.08	3.36	3.7	4.1	60.0	82.2
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	89.2	5	4	23.5%	3.9%	3.11	3.19	1.7	1.8	27.2	40.3	195.2	12	9	23.6%	4.6%	3.31	3.36	3.7	3.8	56.5	81.3
9	MacKenzie Gore	81.1	3	5	34.8%	6.7%	2.88	2.63	2.6	2.6	29.1	45.9	179.1	9	11	30.8%	7.6%	3.26	3.14	4.5	4.5	56.4	83.5
10	Freddy Peralta	83.0	6	4	24.5%	9.3%	2.60	3.76	1.5	2.8	31.9	38.7	179.0	12	10	25.6%	9.1%	3.27	3.85	3.1	4.3	55.6	68.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG