Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	133.2	10	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.09	1.93	5.4	5.6	62.9	101.2	198.2	15	5	32.7%	4.2%	2.27	2.21	7.6	7.6	89.3	140.0
2	Garrett Crochet	141.1	12	4	31.0%	6.7%	2.23	2.53	4.5	5.5	65.2	96.1	197.1	16	6	31.0%	6.9%	2.42	2.64	6.2	7.1	86.3	126.9
3	Framber Valdez	134.0	11	4	26.0%	8.1%	2.62	2.86	3.6	4.7	53.1	77.5	199.0	16	7	25.2%	8.1%	2.80	3.08	5.0	6.1	73.9	105.3
4	Max Fried	134.0	12	4	23.1%	5.9%	2.62	3.07	3.2	3.1	52.5	73.8	197.0	17	7	22.8%	6.1%	2.83	3.26	4.5	4.5	71.8	98.9
5	Hunter Brown	124.0	9	5	30.8%	7.9%	2.54	2.96	3.3	4.5	50.9	72.1	183.0	13	8	29.4%	8.0%	2.85	3.16	4.6	5.6	67.9	95.2
6	Jacob deGrom	123.2	10	3	27.3%	5.5%	2.55	3.35	2.8	4.4	49.8	65.6	176.2	14	5	27.9%	5.4%	2.80	3.35	4.2	5.6	66.6	89.1
7	Nathan Eovaldi	96.0	8	3	27.4%	4.9%	1.50	2.39	3.1	4.5	50.1	72.7	152.0	12	6	26.1%	5.3%	2.31	2.81	4.2	5.4	64.7	93.2
8	Joe Ryan	121.1	10	5	28.9%	5.1%	2.82	3.18	2.9	3.6	46.4	64.2	182.1	14	8	28.4%	5.3%	3.11	3.33	4.3	4.7	62.7	86.5
9	Carlos Rodón	130.0	11	7	27.9%	8.9%	3.18	3.81	2.0	2.6	44.7	54.7	190.0	15	11	27.7%	8.6%	3.46	3.90	3.0	3.3	58.5	71.1
10	Bryan Woo	126.2	8	5	24.3%	4.8%	2.91	3.46	2.6	3.2	42.4	57.0	180.2	11	8	24.1%	4.9%	3.14	3.57	3.5	3.9	55.6	74.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	133.2	10	3	33.8%	3.8%	2.09	1.93	5.4	5.6	62.9	101.2	198.2	15	5	32.7%	4.2%	2.27	2.21	7.6	7.6	89.3	140.0
2	Garrett Crochet	141.1	12	4	31.0%	6.7%	2.23	2.53	4.5	5.5	65.2	96.1	197.1	16	6	31.0%	6.9%	2.42	2.64	6.2	7.1	86.3	126.9
3	Framber Valdez	134.0	11	4	26.0%	8.1%	2.62	2.86	3.6	4.7	53.1	77.5	199.0	16	7	25.2%	8.1%	2.80	3.08	5.0	6.1	73.9	105.3
4	Max Fried	134.0	12	4	23.1%	5.9%	2.62	3.07	3.2	3.1	52.5	73.8	197.0	17	7	22.8%	6.1%	2.83	3.26	4.5	4.5	71.8	98.9
5	Hunter Brown	124.0	9	5	30.8%	7.9%	2.54	2.96	3.3	4.5	50.9	72.1	183.0	13	8	29.4%	8.0%	2.85	3.16	4.6	5.6	67.9	95.2
6	Jacob deGrom	123.2	10	3	27.3%	5.5%	2.55	3.35	2.8	4.4	49.8	65.6	176.2	14	5	27.9%	5.4%	2.80	3.35	4.2	5.6	66.6	89.1
7	Nathan Eovaldi	96.0	8	3	27.4%	4.9%	1.50	2.39	3.1	4.5	50.1	72.7	152.0	12	6	26.1%	5.3%	2.31	2.81	4.2	5.4	64.7	93.2
8	Joe Ryan	121.1	10	5	28.9%	5.1%	2.82	3.18	2.9	3.6	46.4	64.2	182.1	14	8	28.4%	5.3%	3.11	3.33	4.3	4.7	62.7	86.5
9	Carlos Rodón	130.0	11	7	27.9%	8.9%	3.18	3.81	2.0	2.6	44.7	54.7	190.0	15	11	27.7%	8.6%	3.46	3.90	3.0	3.3	58.5	71.1
10	Bryan Woo	126.2	8	5	24.3%	4.8%	2.91	3.46	2.6	3.2	42.4	57.0	180.2	11	8	24.1%	4.9%	3.14	3.57	3.5	3.9	55.6	74.3

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	133.0	6	8	28.3%	6.2%	1.83	2.34	4.5	6.0	60.1	92.0	192.0	10	11	28.5%	6.4%	2.20	2.55	6.2	7.7	80.5	122.2
2	Zack Wheeler	133.2	9	4	33.3%	5.4%	2.56	2.69	4.0	4.8	55.0	81.9	202.2	14	7	31.4%	5.7%	2.75	2.88	5.9	6.6	78.3	114.9
3	Cristopher Sánchez	130.2	9	3	26.3%	6.2%	2.55	2.86	3.5	4.8	51.2	75.1	192.2	13	6	25.2%	6.4%	2.80	3.09	4.8	6.1	69.1	99.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	116.1	9	7	28.7%	8.4%	2.48	2.98	3.2	3.6	48.5	68.1	172.1	13	9	28.0%	7.9%	2.77	3.13	4.6	4.8	65.6	91.8
5	Matthew Boyd	123.2	11	4	22.4%	5.9%	2.47	3.30	2.8	4.0	49.8	66.4	181.2	15	7	22.6%	6.2%	2.87	3.51	3.8	5.0	64.3	84.3
6	Freddy Peralta	121.2	12	4	26.1%	8.4%	2.81	3.67	2.3	3.8	47.9	59.2	179.2	16	7	26.3%	8.5%	3.16	3.81	3.3	4.7	62.4	76.2
7	Nick Pivetta	121.2	10	3	27.2%	6.6%	2.81	3.17	3.0	3.4	45.9	63.9	180.2	14	6	27.3%	6.9%	3.14	3.45	4.0	4.4	61.1	82.1
8	Logan Webb	135.2	9	8	25.6%	5.3%	3.38	2.66	3.4	2.5	40.2	68.0	202.2	14	11	24.5%	5.4%	3.33	2.84	4.9	3.9	60.9	98.4
9	Robbie Ray	129.0	9	5	25.5%	9.9%	2.93	3.76	1.6	3.4	44.9	55.5	186.0	12	8	25.5%	9.5%	3.24	3.89	2.2	4.1	57.6	70.2
10	Andrew Abbott	103.1	8	1	22.8%	6.7%	2.09	3.48	2.5	4.1	45.2	56.9	157.1	11	4	22.7%	7.2%	2.86	3.88	3.3	4.7	54.4	65.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	133.0	6	8	28.3%	6.2%	1.83	2.34	4.5	6.0	60.1	92.0	192.0	10	11	28.5%	6.4%	2.20	2.55	6.2	7.7	80.5	122.2
2	Zack Wheeler	133.2	9	4	33.3%	5.4%	2.56	2.69	4.0	4.8	55.0	81.9	202.2	14	7	31.4%	5.7%	2.75	2.88	5.9	6.6	78.3	114.9
3	Cristopher Sánchez	130.2	9	3	26.3%	6.2%	2.55	2.86	3.5	4.8	51.2	75.1	192.2	13	6	25.2%	6.4%	2.80	3.09	4.8	6.1	69.1	99.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	116.1	9	7	28.7%	8.4%	2.48	2.98	3.2	3.6	48.5	68.1	172.1	13	9	28.0%	7.9%	2.77	3.13	4.6	4.8	65.6	91.8
5	Matthew Boyd	123.2	11	4	22.4%	5.9%	2.47	3.30	2.8	4.0	49.8	66.4	181.2	15	7	22.6%	6.2%	2.87	3.51	3.8	5.0	64.3	84.3
6	Freddy Peralta	121.2	12	4	26.1%	8.4%	2.81	3.67	2.3	3.8	47.9	59.2	179.2	16	7	26.3%	8.5%	3.16	3.81	3.3	4.7	62.4	76.2
7	Nick Pivetta	121.2	10	3	27.2%	6.6%	2.81	3.17	3.0	3.4	45.9	63.9	180.2	14	6	27.3%	6.9%	3.14	3.45	4.0	4.4	61.1	82.1
8	Logan Webb	135.2	9	8	25.6%	5.3%	3.38	2.66	3.4	2.5	40.2	68.0	202.2	14	11	24.5%	5.4%	3.33	2.84	4.9	3.9	60.9	98.4
9	Robbie Ray	129.0	9	5	25.5%	9.9%	2.93	3.76	1.6	3.4	44.9	55.5	186.0	12	8	25.5%	9.5%	3.24	3.89	2.2	4.1	57.6	70.2
10	Andrew Abbott	103.1	8	1	22.8%	6.7%	2.09	3.48	2.5	4.1	45.2	56.9	157.1	11	4	22.7%	7.2%	2.86	3.88	3.3	4.7	54.4	65.1

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG