Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.42	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.5	194.2	14	9	29.1%	4.8%	2.68	2.72	5.9	5.5	75.8	114.3
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.80	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.4	174.0	13	8	30.1%	8.8%	2.74	2.89	4.9	5.0	68.4	99.5
3	Max Fried	44.2	6	0	21.5%	6.1%	1.01	2.91	1.1	1.8	27.2	35.1	182.2	16	6	22.0%	6.6%	2.81	3.40	3.8	4.3	66.9	89.2
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.78	1.9	2.0	23.4	36.4	175.0	15	8	26.5%	7.9%	3.09	3.08	4.6	4.1	61.4	89.1
5	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.33	1.2	0.6	10.5	19.1	171.2	11	8	30.2%	8.5%	3.57	3.15	4.2	3.3	50.5	76.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	42.2	2	2	28.2%	1.8%	2.11	2.31	1.3	1.4	17.9	28.3	177.2	10	9	24.5%	5.0%	3.39	3.34	3.7	3.2	49.5	72.4
7	Pablo López	28.0	2	2	23.2%	3.6%	2.25	2.56	0.9	0.7	11.6	17.6	169.0	11	10	24.8%	5.6%	3.51	3.38	3.6	2.7	46.8	67.8
8	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.67	0.7	1.3	13.6	17.1	143.0	9	6	28.7%	5.6%	3.15	3.26	3.5	3.3	46.9	66.5
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.14	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	134.1	8	6	28.9%	5.6%	3.08	3.05	3.1	2.8	44.8	66.3
10	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.56	0.9	1.1	18.0	23.1	185.2	14	11	28.0%	8.8%	3.73	3.85	3.1	2.5	51.2	64.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.42	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.5	194.2	14	9	29.1%	4.8%	2.68	2.72	5.9	5.5	75.8	114.3
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.80	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.4	174.0	13	8	30.1%	8.8%	2.74	2.89	4.9	5.0	68.4	99.5
3	Max Fried	44.2	6	0	21.5%	6.1%	1.01	2.91	1.1	1.8	27.2	35.1	182.2	16	6	22.0%	6.6%	2.81	3.40	3.8	4.3	66.9	89.2
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.78	1.9	2.0	23.4	36.4	175.0	15	8	26.5%	7.9%	3.09	3.08	4.6	4.1	61.4	89.1
5	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.33	1.2	0.6	10.5	19.1	171.2	11	8	30.2%	8.5%	3.57	3.15	4.2	3.3	50.5	76.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	42.2	2	2	28.2%	1.8%	2.11	2.31	1.3	1.4	17.9	28.3	177.2	10	9	24.5%	5.0%	3.39	3.34	3.7	3.2	49.5	72.4
7	Pablo López	28.0	2	2	23.2%	3.6%	2.25	2.56	0.9	0.7	11.6	17.6	169.0	11	10	24.8%	5.6%	3.51	3.38	3.6	2.7	46.8	67.8
8	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.67	0.7	1.3	13.6	17.1	143.0	9	6	28.7%	5.6%	3.15	3.26	3.5	3.3	46.9	66.5
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.14	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.5	134.1	8	6	28.9%	5.6%	3.08	3.05	3.1	2.8	44.8	66.3
10	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.56	0.9	1.1	18.0	23.1	185.2	14	11	28.0%	8.8%	3.73	3.85	3.1	2.5	51.2	64.7

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.82	1.8	1.5	19.8	34.1	204.1	15	9	23.3%	5.8%	3.04	2.79	5.2	4.7	67.8	106.6
2	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	40.0	4	2	32.0%	8.5%	0.90	2.24	1.4	2.0	24.9	35.0	168.0	14	7	27.8%	6.9%	2.73	2.99	4.4	4.6	65.6	93.8
3	Paul Skenes	42.2	3	3	24.8%	4.8%	2.74	2.99	1.0	1.2	15.4	22.6	178.2	12	9	27.9%	6.4%	3.02	3.01	4.7	4.7	61.4	91.0
4	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.29	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.6	204.0	13	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.35	3.37	4.9	4.7	62.0	87.6
5	Michael King	38.2	4	1	29.5%	7.7%	2.09	2.78	1.3	1.5	18.9	26.3	178.2	14	8	26.9%	8.4%	3.12	3.42	4.1	4.3	61.2	82.6
6	Chris Sale	35.1	1	3	29.3%	5.7%	4.84	3.32	0.7	0.2	4.3	8.9	176.1	12	9	29.6%	6.3%	3.47	3.15	4.0	3.6	53.9	80.3
7	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.16	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.8	164.2	14	8	22.6%	8.5%	3.33	3.11	3.6	2.9	51.2	76.7
8	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.72	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.9	178.0	10	11	29.5%	8.2%	3.59	3.37	3.8	3.6	49.9	72.3
9	Jesús Luzardo	41.2	3	0	27.6%	6.5%	1.94	1.91	1.7	1.5	19.5	31.5	172.2	11	7	25.7%	7.5%	3.44	3.39	3.8	3.3	49.8	71.2
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.74	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.5	170.1	14	8	28.0%	7.8%	3.38	3.67	3.3	3.4	54.6	70.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.82	1.8	1.5	19.8	34.1	204.1	15	9	23.3%	5.8%	3.04	2.79	5.2	4.7	67.8	106.6
2	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	40.0	4	2	32.0%	8.5%	0.90	2.24	1.4	2.0	24.9	35.0	168.0	14	7	27.8%	6.9%	2.73	2.99	4.4	4.6	65.6	93.8
3	Paul Skenes	42.2	3	3	24.8%	4.8%	2.74	2.99	1.0	1.2	15.4	22.6	178.2	12	9	27.9%	6.4%	3.02	3.01	4.7	4.7	61.4	91.0
4	Zack Wheeler	44.0	2	1	32.8%	5.2%	3.48	3.29	1.0	1.1	12.7	18.6	204.0	13	8	27.9%	6.1%	3.35	3.37	4.9	4.7	62.0	87.6
5	Michael King	38.2	4	1	29.5%	7.7%	2.09	2.78	1.3	1.5	18.9	26.3	178.2	14	8	26.9%	8.4%	3.12	3.42	4.1	4.3	61.2	82.6
6	Chris Sale	35.1	1	3	29.3%	5.7%	4.84	3.32	0.7	0.2	4.3	8.9	176.1	12	9	29.6%	6.3%	3.47	3.15	4.0	3.6	53.9	80.3
7	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.16	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.8	164.2	14	8	22.6%	8.5%	3.33	3.11	3.6	2.9	51.2	76.7
8	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.72	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.9	178.0	10	11	29.5%	8.2%	3.59	3.37	3.8	3.6	49.9	72.3
9	Jesús Luzardo	41.2	3	0	27.6%	6.5%	1.94	1.91	1.7	1.5	19.5	31.5	172.2	11	7	25.7%	7.5%	3.44	3.39	3.8	3.3	49.8	71.2
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.74	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.5	170.1	14	8	28.0%	7.8%	3.38	3.67	3.3	3.4	54.6	70.4

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG