2014 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
It’s probably not incorrect to say that two main ways in which baseball players can provide value, broadly speaking, is by means of wins and also by means of the spectacle they’re capable of creating. Very fast Billy Hamilton has seemed — to the present author, at least — has seemed a candidate to succeed more by the latter standard than the former. ZiPS appears to suggest, however — in 2014, at least — that Hamilton is capable of producing on both accounts.

Of note, in particular, with regard to Hamilton’s projection is the BABIP (.332) part of it. On Cincinnati, for example, only Joey Votto has a higher projected one of them (.334) — and Joey Votto has produced five consecutive seasons now of BABIPs of .349 or greater. Everything else being equal, every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 0.3 wins. Using that rough estimate, here’s a table of what Hamilton’s WAR might be given an array of possible different BABIP outcomes:

BABIP zWAR
.350 3.1
.340 2.8
.330 2.5
.320 2.2
.310 1.9
.300 1.6

The relatively optimistic WAR projection, one observes, is tied pretty closely to the relatively optimistic BABIP projection.

Pitchers
This is the 16th club considered in the ongoing release of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and very few of those clubs — two, maybe three — have featured an entire rotation of average to above-average starters. Cincinnati is one of them, now, though. Theoretically the weakest of the group, Mike Leake is still projected to record 180 innings of league-average run prevention. Young left-hander Tony Cingrani, meanwhile, who threw 100 innings last season, is projected to prevent runs even harder than that.

In the bullpen, one finds a very concise cautionary tale on paying for relief help. Jonathan Broxton, signed for three years and $21 million before the 2013 season, is projected by ZiPS to be outperformed — both overall and on a rate basis — by Manny Parra, who was signed that same offseason for just $1 million. Nor is ZiPS even explicitly aware of Broxton’s season-ending elbow injury — just that he didn’t pitch a full complement of innings.

Bench/Prospects
Absent from the depth-chart image below, but certainly a candidate to receive more than 200 plate appearances for a fifth consecutive season is Chris Heisey. According to ZiPS, there’s a non-negligible chance that he’s just a better option overall than Ryan Ludwick in left field (as he was in 2013, for example). No other particularly major-league-ready outfield options exist within the organization, really. Among pitching prospects, young right-hander Robert Stephenson receives the most impressive projection — but not so’s to suggest that he’s ready for the majors, yet.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Reds Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joey Votto L 30 1B 627 84 147 31 2 25 81 7 4
Jay Bruce L 27 RF 656 87 148 33 3 32 111 8 4
Brandon Phillips R 33 2B 634 80 156 27 2 16 87 9 5
Billy Hamilton B 23 CF 605 73 147 20 8 6 48 68 15
Todd Frazier R 28 3B 560 64 122 28 4 21 78 9 4
Zack Cozart R 28 SS 596 75 140 31 4 13 54 5 1
Devin Mesoraco R 26 C 390 40 89 19 1 13 52 1 2
Tucker Barnhart B 23 C 407 38 92 18 2 5 37 1 1
Chris Heisey R 29 LF 314 38 72 13 2 11 35 4 1
Corky Miller R 38 C 222 20 42 10 0 5 26 0 0
Neftali Soto R 25 3B 536 57 120 22 1 20 68 2 1
Jack Hannahan L 34 3B 260 24 53 10 1 5 30 1 1
Ryan LaMarre R 25 CF 536 52 115 17 3 7 40 24 12
Brayan Pena B 32 C 226 17 56 10 0 4 25 0 1
Ryan Ludwick R 35 LF 354 36 78 16 0 13 52 0 1
Mike Wilson R 31 LF 316 41 65 13 1 11 40 3 3
Kris Negron R 28 SS 424 41 80 14 3 8 35 12 3
Henry A. Rodriguez B 24 2B 550 51 137 21 0 8 49 12 6
Mike Costanzo L 30 3B 446 45 85 18 2 13 50 2 2
David Vidal R 24 3B 495 48 99 21 1 11 48 1 1
Ruben Gotay B 31 3B 491 49 100 16 1 9 44 8 4
Argenis Diaz R 27 SS 459 37 97 17 2 1 29 5 4
Ray Chang R 30 2B 334 30 75 12 0 3 27 1 2
Donald Lutz L 25 LF 443 45 96 17 4 13 53 6 3
Jason Bourgeois R 32 LF 358 39 85 10 3 2 28 17 7
Corey Wimberly B 30 2B 271 29 61 8 2 1 19 10 6
Skip Schumaker L 34 2B 362 34 82 14 1 3 33 2 2
Brandon Short R 25 RF 374 37 78 14 3 7 32 6 5
Joe Mather R 31 1B 239 21 47 10 1 5 21 3 2
Max Ramirez R 29 1B 423 42 91 14 0 11 49 0 0
Felix Perez L 29 LF 443 41 99 18 2 6 40 5 4
Derrick Robinson B 26 LF 440 40 89 11 3 1 20 20 9
Juan Duran R 22 RF 478 47 96 13 2 12 47 5 7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Joey Votto 627 17.5% 19.6% .217 .334 .289 .416 .506 .386
Jay Bruce 656 9.9% 26.5% .231 .304 .254 .329 .485 .341
Brandon Phillips 634 5.7% 13.1% .136 .287 .269 .317 .405 .311
Billy Hamilton 605 7.4% 20.8% .098 .332 .264 .319 .362 .313
Todd Frazier 560 7.9% 23.9% .196 .288 .243 .313 .439 .327
Zack Cozart 596 4.7% 17.6% .141 .289 .254 .290 .395 .296
Devin Mesoraco 390 7.9% 19.2% .170 .283 .251 .313 .421 .314
Tucker Barnhart 407 7.6% 19.7% .101 .304 .249 .309 .350 .292
Chris Heisey 314 4.8% 22.9% .174 .295 .250 .299 .424 .312
Corky Miller 222 10.4% 18.9% .130 .252 .219 .309 .349 .291
Neftali Soto 536 4.7% 26.5% .167 .291 .238 .280 .405 .299
Jack Hannahan 260 9.6% 22.7% .117 .286 .229 .309 .346 .290
Ryan LaMarre 536 6.3% 25.6% .090 .312 .236 .296 .326 .279
Brayan Pena 226 3.5% 11.1% .104 .278 .264 .289 .368 .284
Ryan Ludwick 354 7.6% 22.3% .172 .281 .244 .306 .416 .311
Mike Wilson 316 7.3% 28.5% .166 .286 .226 .288 .392 .298
Kris Negron 424 5.0% 28.3% .114 .276 .207 .261 .321 .259
Henry A. Rodriguez 550 4.5% 16.7% .087 .306 .264 .301 .351 .288
Mike Costanzo 446 8.3% 32.7% .151 .291 .211 .279 .362 .281
David Vidal 495 5.9% 30.1% .123 .294 .217 .268 .340 .267
Ruben Gotay 491 9.4% 22.8% .103 .283 .227 .300 .330 .282
Argenis Diaz 459 5.9% 20.9% .056 .291 .228 .275 .284 .249
Ray Chang 334 5.1% 16.8% .068 .285 .242 .286 .310 .262
Donald Lutz 443 4.7% 29.8% .154 .305 .231 .275 .385 .287
Jason Bourgeois 358 5.3% 10.9% .066 .283 .256 .297 .322 .275
Corey Wimberly 271 4.4% 12.5% .060 .278 .245 .288 .305 .261
Skip Schumaker 362 7.5% 15.5% .076 .292 .250 .311 .326 .283
Brandon Short 374 5.1% 24.9% .120 .290 .229 .278 .349 .273
Joe Mather 239 6.3% 25.5% .122 .268 .214 .261 .336 .259
Max Ramirez 423 6.6% 23.2% .122 .283 .236 .287 .358 .284
Felix Perez 443 3.6% 20.3% .096 .288 .237 .274 .333 .267
Derrick Robinson 440 7.0% 23.0% .050 .295 .224 .280 .274 .247
Juan Duran 478 6.1% 37.0% .119 .327 .217 .266 .336 .264

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Joey Votto 627 8.0 149 3 4.8 Todd Helton
Jay Bruce 656 5.8 117 6 3.3 Bruce Campbell
Brandon Phillips 634 4.7 94 5 2.5 Frank Bolling
Billy Hamilton 605 5.0 84 4 2.5 Milt Cuyler
Todd Frazier 560 4.9 101 1 2.4 Ed Whited
Zack Cozart 596 4.2 84 4 2.0 Hector Luna
Devin Mesoraco 390 4.7 97 0 2.0 Hector Villanueva
Tucker Barnhart 407 3.9 78 5 1.8 Dave Van Gorder
Chris Heisey 314 4.6 93 2 0.7 Marlin McPhail
Corky Miller 222 3.7 78 -2 0.5 Rick Ferrell
Neftali Soto 536 4.0 83 -5 0.4 Eric Hardgrave
Jack Hannahan 260 3.7 77 1 0.4 Charlie Neal
Ryan LaMarre 536 3.4 69 2 0.3 Vernon Thomas
Brayan Pena 226 3.8 77 -3 0.2 Steven Norris
Ryan Ludwick 354 4.5 93 -3 0.1 Eddie Williams
Mike Wilson 316 3.8 82 0 0.0 Darrell Whitmore
Kris Negron 424 3.0 57 1 -0.1 Erick Monzon
Henry A. Rodriguez 550 3.9 76 -5 -0.1 Billy Ripken
Mike Costanzo 446 3.4 72 -3 -0.1 Steve Phillips
David Vidal 495 3.1 64 2 -0.1 Glenn Williams
Ruben Gotay 491 3.5 71 -4 -0.2 Dave Rohde
Argenis Diaz 459 2.7 52 1 -0.5 Gary Green
Ray Chang 334 3.1 62 -1 -0.5 Gary Green
Donald Lutz 443 3.7 77 -2 -0.6 Mike Stellern
Jason Bourgeois 358 3.6 68 0 -0.7 Jim Buccheri
Corey Wimberly 271 3.1 61 -4 -0.7 Rondin Johnson
Skip Schumaker 362 3.6 73 -9 -0.7 Ron Oester
Brandon Short 374 3.3 69 -2 -1.0 Jonathan Johnson
Joe Mather 239 3.0 60 -1 -1.1 Tom Nevers
Max Ramirez 423 3.6 73 -3 -1.2 Juan Richardson
Felix Perez 443 3.2 64 0 -1.2 Jim St. Laurent
Derrick Robinson 440 2.7 51 4 -1.2 Tony Triplett
Juan Duran 478 2.9 62 1 -1.3 Alan Cockrell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
Mat Latos R 26 32 32 208.3 186 57 19 187 81 76
Homer Bailey R 28 30 30 192.0 163 46 21 179 81 76
Johnny Cueto R 28 23 23 136.3 102 35 11 125 51 48
Tony Cingrani L 24 30 25 138.0 153 59 17 113 57 53
Mike Leake R 26 30 29 179.3 119 41 23 183 86 80
Aroldis Chapman L 26 69 0 65.3 107 29 6 39 17 16
Bronson Arroyo R 37 26 26 166.0 100 31 27 173 86 80
Sam LeCure R 30 55 0 60.0 63 21 6 50 22 21
J.J. Hoover R 26 68 0 66.3 72 27 7 53 26 24
Sean Marshall L 31 47 0 40.3 44 11 3 33 13 12
Robert Stephenson R 21 22 22 100.7 90 42 16 97 55 51
Alfredo Simon R 33 51 0 71.7 55 22 7 67 30 28
Carlos Contreras R 23 26 26 124.0 91 70 16 122 70 65
Greg Reynolds R 28 27 23 152.3 70 43 20 170 87 81
Manny Parra L 31 47 0 43.7 45 17 4 38 18 17
Jon Moscot R 22 23 23 104.7 78 41 17 107 60 56
Jonathan Broxton R 30 38 0 37.0 31 13 4 34 16 15
Nick Masset R 32 28 0 27.7 23 12 3 27 13 12
Logan Ondrusek R 29 63 0 61.0 50 25 8 58 30 28
David Holmberg L 22 26 26 147.0 88 56 24 160 90 84
Mark Prior R 33 11 0 13.3 12 10 2 13 9 8
Nick McBride R 23 25 13 74.7 35 38 8 83 46 43
Jose Arredondo R 30 53 0 55.3 52 39 7 50 30 28
Zach Duke L 31 37 10 89.0 50 28 13 100 54 50
Lee Hyde L 29 50 0 43.7 32 25 5 43 25 23
Trevor Bell R 27 26 6 53.3 34 22 9 58 33 31
Kanekoa Texeira R 28 26 2 37.7 21 18 5 41 24 22
Chad Rogers R 24 25 25 124.3 75 49 22 136 79 74
Justin Freeman R 27 34 0 37.7 29 15 7 40 24 22
Tim Crabbe R 26 27 24 130.3 88 68 21 140 83 78
Jose Diaz R 30 44 0 44.7 35 25 7 45 28 26
Curtis Partch R 27 48 0 60.3 48 34 11 58 37 35
Nick Christiani R 26 55 0 63.0 36 28 10 68 40 37
Kevin Whelan R 30 40 0 40.7 40 30 8 40 29 27
Ryan Dennick L 27 31 11 88.7 49 41 16 99 61 57
Loek van Mil R 29 43 0 58.7 31 33 9 64 40 37
Pedro Beato R 27 49 0 58.7 39 31 11 63 40 37
Ismael Guillon L 22 23 22 94.3 85 85 19 94 71 66
Pedro Villarreal R 26 29 22 121.7 72 40 27 142 87 81
Chad Reineke R 32 24 21 118.7 61 46 27 142 88 82
Daniel Corcino R 23 26 23 119.3 73 83 24 133 92 86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Mat Latos 208.3 869 21.4% 6.6% .280 3.28 3.12 85 81
Homer Bailey 192.0 801 20.3% 5.7% .281 3.56 3.44 93 89
Johnny Cueto 136.3 569 17.9% 6.2% .275 3.17 3.33 82 87
Tony Cingrani 138.0 586 26.1% 10.1% .274 3.46 3.68 90 96
Mike Leake 179.3 762 15.6% 5.4% .279 4.01 3.96 104 103
Aroldis Chapman 65.3 264 40.5% 11.0% .278 2.20 2.29 57 59
Bronson Arroyo 166.0 702 14.2% 4.4% .271 4.34 4.42 113 115
Sam LeCure 60.0 251 25.1% 8.4% .277 3.15 3.20 82 83
J.J. Hoover 66.3 279 25.8% 9.7% .269 3.26 3.28 85 85
Sean Marshall 40.3 165 26.7% 6.7% .286 2.68 2.58 70 67
Robert Stephenson 100.7 441 20.4% 9.5% .283 4.56 4.64 119 121
Alfredo Simon 71.7 304 18.1% 7.2% .280 3.52 3.72 91 97
Carlos Contreras 124.0 564 16.1% 12.4% .280 4.72 4.92 123 128
Greg Reynolds 152.3 670 10.4% 6.4% .285 4.79 4.73 124 123
Manny Parra 43.7 186 24.2% 9.1% .288 3.50 3.27 91 85
Jon Moscot 104.7 462 16.9% 8.9% .281 4.82 4.81 125 125
Jonathan Broxton 37.0 158 19.6% 8.2% .280 3.65 3.85 95 100
Nick Masset 27.7 122 18.8% 9.8% .289 3.90 3.95 101 103
Logan Ondrusek 61.0 266 18.8% 9.4% .276 4.13 4.15 107 108
David Holmberg 147.0 657 13.4% 8.5% .284 5.14 5.15 134 134
Mark Prior 13.3 63 19.1% 15.9% .290 5.40 5.31 140 138
Nick McBride 74.7 345 10.1% 11.0% .289 5.18 5.04 135 131
Jose Arredondo 55.3 255 20.4% 15.3% .279 4.55 4.83 118 126
Zach Duke 89.0 395 12.7% 7.1% .290 5.06 4.72 131 123
Lee Hyde 43.7 199 16.1% 12.6% .281 4.74 4.71 123 122
Trevor Bell 53.3 240 14.2% 9.2% .285 5.23 5.23 136 136
Kanekoa Texeira 37.7 172 12.2% 10.5% .288 5.26 5.10 137 133
Chad Rogers 124.3 558 13.4% 8.8% .282 5.36 5.32 139 138
Justin Freeman 37.7 168 17.3% 8.9% .287 5.26 5.05 137 131
Tim Crabbe 130.3 599 14.7% 11.4% .289 5.39 5.42 140 141
Jose Diaz 44.7 204 17.1% 12.2% .283 5.24 5.11 136 133
Curtis Partch 60.3 273 17.6% 12.5% .272 5.22 5.57 136 145
Nick Christiani 63.0 285 12.6% 9.8% .282 5.29 5.20 137 135
Kevin Whelan 40.7 192 20.8% 15.6% .288 5.98 5.92 155 154
Ryan Dennick 88.7 406 12.1% 10.1% .282 5.79 5.73 150 149
Loek van Mil 58.7 273 11.4% 12.1% .280 5.68 5.57 148 145
Pedro Beato 58.7 270 14.4% 11.5% .281 5.68 5.69 148 148
Ismael Guillon 94.3 462 18.4% 18.4% .282 6.30 6.64 164 173
Pedro Villarreal 121.7 547 13.2% 7.3% .287 5.99 5.78 156 150
Chad Reineke 118.7 544 11.2% 8.5% .286 6.22 6.17 162 160
Daniel Corcino 119.3 574 12.7% 14.5% .283 6.49 6.60 169 172

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Mat Latos 208.3 8.04 2.46 0.82 121 4.5 Jason Schmidt
Homer Bailey 192.0 7.64 2.16 0.98 111 3.5 Jeff Weaver
Johnny Cueto 136.3 6.74 2.31 0.73 125 3.1 Charles Nagy
Tony Cingrani 138.0 9.98 3.85 1.11 115 2.6 Sebern Wright
Mike Leake 179.3 5.97 2.06 1.15 99 2.3 Kyle Lohse
Aroldis Chapman 65.3 14.75 4.00 0.83 180 1.6 John Rocker
Bronson Arroyo 166.0 5.42 1.68 1.46 91 1.5 Dick Donovan
Sam LeCure 60.0 9.45 3.15 0.90 126 0.8 Jason Frasor
J.J. Hoover 66.3 9.77 3.67 0.95 122 0.8 Bryce Florie
Sean Marshall 40.3 9.83 2.46 0.67 148 0.7 Chuck McElroy
Robert Stephenson 100.7 8.04 3.75 1.43 87 0.6 Roger Salkeld
Alfredo Simon 71.7 6.90 2.76 0.88 113 0.6 Julian Tavarez
Carlos Contreras 124.0 6.60 5.08 1.16 84 0.5 Derrick Lewis
Greg Reynolds 152.3 4.14 2.54 1.18 83 0.5 Mike Thompson
Manny Parra 43.7 9.27 3.50 0.82 113 0.4 Mike Munoz
Jon Moscot 104.7 6.70 3.52 1.46 82 0.3 Joel Moore
Jonathan Broxton 37.0 7.54 3.16 0.97 109 0.3 Chad Paronto
Nick Masset 27.7 7.47 3.90 0.97 102 0.1 Jason Childers
Logan Ondrusek 61.0 7.38 3.69 1.18 96 0.1 Jason Bullard
David Holmberg 147.0 5.39 3.43 1.47 77 -0.1 Larry Casian
Mark Prior 13.3 8.12 6.77 1.35 73 -0.2 Archie Corbin
Nick McBride 74.7 4.22 4.58 0.96 77 -0.2 Rich Dorman
Jose Arredondo 55.3 8.46 6.35 1.14 87 -0.2 Archie Corbin
Zach Duke 89.0 5.06 2.83 1.31 78 -0.3 Mark Thurmond
Lee Hyde 43.7 6.59 5.15 1.03 84 -0.3 Mike Kinnunen
Trevor Bell 53.3 5.74 3.71 1.52 76 -0.3 Juan Done
Kanekoa Texeira 37.7 5.01 4.30 1.19 75 -0.3 Paul Giel
Chad Rogers 124.3 5.43 3.55 1.59 74 -0.4 Mark Mangum
Justin Freeman 37.7 6.92 3.58 1.67 75 -0.5 Blas Cedeno
Tim Crabbe 130.3 6.08 4.70 1.45 74 -0.5 Mark Rothey
Jose Diaz 44.7 7.05 5.03 1.41 76 -0.6 Bart Evans
Curtis Partch 60.3 7.16 5.07 1.64 76 -0.7 Darren Hall
Nick Christiani 63.0 5.14 4.00 1.43 75 -0.8 Matt Smith
Kevin Whelan 40.7 8.85 6.63 1.77 66 -0.9 Ryan Bukvich
Ryan Dennick 88.7 4.97 4.16 1.62 69 -1.0 Matt White
Loek van Mil 58.7 4.75 5.06 1.38 70 -1.0 Marty McLeary
Pedro Beato 58.7 5.98 4.75 1.69 70 -1.0 Bill Pulsipher
Ismael Guillon 94.3 8.11 8.11 1.81 63 -1.4 Kyle Bloom
Pedro Villarreal 121.7 5.32 2.96 2.00 66 -1.4 Greg Biercevicz
Chad Reineke 118.7 4.63 3.49 2.05 64 -1.7 R.A. Dickey
Daniel Corcino 119.3 5.51 6.26 1.81 61 -2.1 Joel Santo

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Menthol
Member
Member
Menthol
2 years 7 months ago

I would bet my IRA that Joey Votto hits higher than .289 next year.

philosofool
Guest
philosofool
2 years 7 months ago

Does ZiPS know that he basically never hits an infield fly?

Trev
Guest
Trev
2 years 7 months ago

Is Tony Cingrani’s comp Sebern Wright supposed to be Chase Wright, former Yankees farmhand?

Nyquil
Guest
Nyquil
2 years 7 months ago

I’d bet every penny to my name on Votto hitting higher than .289.

But disregarding Cueto’s lack of innings due to last season’s injuries, seeing this makes me want the Reds to resign Arroyo more than before.

It would not surprise me if the Reds have one of the best rotations in the NL. if Cingrani pitches 160-170, Cueto 170-190.

Hopefully the Reds can get lucky and win a bunch of one-run games this coming year, or they’ll be on the outside looking in.

Matty Brown
Member
Member
Matty Brown
2 years 7 months ago

I would have to take the over on Hamilton’s DEF and BABIP. I think he will safely be an 8-10 on Def and a BABIP between .340-.350

Doug Gray
Guest
2 years 7 months ago

Hamilton had a .310 BABIP in AAA last year. While it is certainly possible his BABIP falls in the .340-.350 range, it isn’t a given. Absolutely with you on the defensive value.

philosofool
Guest
philosofool
2 years 7 months ago

This over estimates the value of speed in reaching base. Some very fast guys (Furcal, Rollins, Brian Roberts, Rickey Henderson) didn’t manage to convert that speed into reaching first at a high rate.

MustBunique
Member
Member
2 years 7 months ago

I’m sorry, but Rickey owns a career .401 OBP. Please never say anything about Rickey not being able to get on base again thank you.

Doug Gray
Guest
2 years 7 months ago

But it wasn’t because he was fast,which was hit point. Henderson was all over the place with his BABIP, even before he lost some of his speed as he aged.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 7 months ago

I think BABIP tends to correlate much more strongly to the quality of contact than it does to speed. There aren’t actually that many ground balls where a player’s speed is the difference between an infield hit and a groundout. Not enough, for example, to boost a guy’s BABIP 50 points above league average.

JP
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JP
2 years 7 months ago

Um, taking the under on Hamilton 3 war.

Steve
Guest
Steve
2 years 7 months ago

I’m taking under too. Baserunning doesn’t mean much if you can’t get on base

Johan Santa
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Johan Santa
2 years 7 months ago

… A bit worried about Jay Bruce’s comp there. I don’t see how he’ll hit for much power at all if one of his hands is replaced with a chainsaw.

scatterbrian
Member
Member
scatterbrian
2 years 7 months ago

At least we’ll start seeing him making cameos in Sam Raimi movies.

MustBunique
Member
Member
2 years 7 months ago

I missed you Johan, and I see so much less of you now that Santana appears less in articles.

Johan Santa
Guest
Johan Santa
2 years 7 months ago

Don’t you fret, I’ll be back in a few years when Santana shows up as a fringe-ish HOF candidate.

Xeifrank
Guest
2 years 7 months ago

That’s a lot of WAR. :)
Does that make the Reds a contender?

Johan Santa
Guest
Johan Santa
2 years 7 months ago

Indeed it does! It puts them a touch back from St. Louis but looks pretty comparable to 2013 overall. (In aggregate, anyway)

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 7 months ago

I think it’s pretty safe to assume the Pirates are going to fall back to .500 this year, especially if Burnett doesn’t go back.

Daryl
Guest
Daryl
2 years 7 months ago

Surprised no Yorman projection if Duran received one.

Paul Morgan
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Paul Morgan
2 years 7 months ago

Wonder if they keep track of the number of farts each player commits at bat and on the bases. Which one is positive and when are they negative?

Menthol
Member
Member
Menthol
2 years 7 months ago

The Fart Propulsion Metric (FMP) is incorporated into the base running score. Everyone knows that.

Darren
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Darren
2 years 7 months ago

Zips likes the Reds pitchers a lot more than Steamer. The difference in the projected starters is almost 7 wins. Any idea how they look at pitchers differently?

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 7 months ago

I’m starting to wonder if Steamer just takes a sort of “lol, pitchers” attitude towards projections. Steamer thinks both Verlander and Kershaw are going to throw less than 200 innings and be worth less than 4 WAR, which is more than conservative for the two best pitchers in baseball.

It seems to assume every pitcher will have a league-average BABIP, LOB and HR/FB rates, even if a player has been better-than-average in those categories for their whole careers. In addition, an “average” LOB rate for better pitchers is higher than for worse pitchers – guys who allow fewer hits and home runs will naturally strand more runners, even without assuming a particular skill for stranding runners – so Steamer seems to actually be unfairly penalizing better pitchers, basically assuming they will have a worse-than-expected LOB rate than their peripherals suggest.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 7 months ago

@Bip: Steamer’s process sounds like xFIP honestly.

Rauce
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Rauce
2 years 7 months ago

Pretty damn optimistic on Bruce’s defense.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 7 months ago

Bruce has a career UZR of 5.5 in right field, so that’s not too crazy. Remember the “Def” value on a player’s page includes position adjustment, so Bruce’s defensive value on his player page includes a penalty for playing right field.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 7 months ago

Make that 5.5 UZR/150, so about 5.5 runs saved in right field per season.

Andy e
Guest
Andy e
2 years 7 months ago

I love carston’s syntax

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 7 months ago

I hate it honestly. It’s so darn cumbersome to read. It sounds like a style used by someone to fluff up two lines of substance into two pages of fluff.

JMo37
Member
JMo37
2 years 7 months ago

Comp Player

Is this compared to the career of Comp player or a particular season?

rusty
Guest
rusty
2 years 7 months ago

IIRC, they’re “at the same age as [player]” comps

Xeifrank
Guest
2 years 7 months ago

Dave Sz said: ” Everything else being equal, every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 0.3 wins. Using that rough estimate, here’s a table of what Hamilton’s WAR might be given an array of possible different BABIP outcomes:”

My work showed 1 point of BABIP to be worth around 0.02 runs per game (a fraction more or less depending on what level of BABIP estimate we are working with). So let’s see if we agree that “every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 0.3 wins”.

10 * 0.02 = 0.2 runs per game.

0.2 x 162 games = 32.4 runs
or 0.2 x 150 games = 30.0 runs

1 win = 10.5 runs.
32.4 / 10.5 = 3.09 wins
30.0 / 10.5 = 2.86 wins

So I’d say it does match. :)

Xeifrank
Guest
2 years 7 months ago

Sorry I did this is on a team level. So it isn’t really apples to apples. But I found that an increase in BABIP of one point (example going from 0.300 to 0.301) from the pitchers perspective (or all 9 hitters perspective, not just one of them) adds around 0.02 runs per game for the hitting team at the BABIP level of 0.326. At the BABIP level of 0.300 it was 0.0175 runs per game. I will run it again later at a single individual player level to see if it matches Dave Sz’s 0.3 wins number. I will run it with Billy Hamilton’s projection and speed rating, and also to a player with average speed and hitting abilities to see what the differences are in that respect too.

champion88
Member
champion88
2 years 7 months ago

Customarily, it’s assumed that 10 runs even = 1 win, not 10.5 runs.

Kurzweil or Kurt Weill?
Guest
Kurzweil or Kurt Weill?
2 years 7 months ago

Actually, I think that since (all else being equal) 10 points of BABIP = 19 or 20 points of OPS (since you’re gaining both OBP & SLG) or roughly .6 WAR.

Does that make sense?

Kurzweil or Kurt Weill?
Guest
Kurzweil or Kurt Weill?
2 years 7 months ago

For an individual hitter, over 600-650 plate appearances, that is.

Frank
Guest
Frank
2 years 6 months ago

These projections should be on FunnyorDie.com because they’re hilarious.

Also, I know if anyone read this it would cause heads to explode, but FIP is garbage. And when you base your WAR projections off FIP, well, then your WAR projections are garbage. And your WAR pitching calculations on the player pages are garbage too. Testament I suppose that baseball statisticians understand basic college mathematics, but not the basic college science that would allow them to apply it.

It would be a good for a stat if someone who was competent reworked it, but right now it wouldn’t last five seconds outside of the entertainment community. Where it currently lives.

wpDiscuz