Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/31/15

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Gravy fries.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Not actually eating them or going to , but I think thinking about them just now.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, chat thing. Make good questions. COMMENCE!

12:00
Dan Szymborski: If this chat isn’t badass, each one of you is sued.

12:00
Comment From Miggy Azalea
KANYE 2016 YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZ

12:01
Comment From Mike Trout Hurt His Wrist Masturbating
Can we talk about Trout’s sub .400 SLG in August? Shouldn’t the Angels shut him down?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: The MRI was negative and he says he’s fine.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Even gods have bad months. I mean, even Zeus came down and slept with a swan.

12:02
Comment From Frankie
uh how bout Chris Bassitt

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Amusingly, Bassitt’s now crushing Samardzija in bWAR.

12:03
Comment From Matt
Where do you stand on Derek Holland? I didn’t realize he was so dominant in the minors. Any chance for a breakout next year?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure about a *breakout* – he’ll be 29 and essentially broke out years ago, but I expect him to be good if healthy

12:03
Comment From Jeff
Will the Blue Jays ever lose again?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they want to keep things fair.

12:03
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12:04
Comment From Neal
Mark Buerhle has said he’s feeling rough as the season enters it’s late stage. If the Jays use Stroman as spot starts in place of Buerhle when he’s back, will this be the first time a father and son have been in the same rotation?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: heh

12:04
Dan Szymborski: Buerhle’s not even all that old – it just feels that way

12:04
Comment From Neal
The swan was giving him the eyes, you know? Can’t blame the dude.

12:04
Comment From Jeff
What, if any, impact will Shapiro have on the Blue Jays?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it will have a big impact though I feel he’ll be quite competent. At least initial buzz is that they’re keeping AA and business as usual.

12:05
Comment From Marc
a 90% effective Marcus Stroman have a bigger impact on winning the division or winning the ALDS for the Jays?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Division if he comes back strong.

12:05
Comment From tot hake
Was Andrew Friedman secretly the reason the rays got no-hit all the time? MY COLUMN:

12:05
Comment From Richard Feynman
Dodgers are good, but boy do they look bad when they’re bad.

12:05
Comment From Oren
What should Blue Jays fans be thinking about the Shapiro hire, if anything?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Not relaly much to think about yet.

12:05
Comment From kris
thoughts on mount mckinley being renamed denali?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: You can call a mountain whatever you want. Who says Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: My only complaint is that wikipedia once again is unable to have a consistent naming policy for its titles.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: They rushed to move McKinley/Denali to its official name, even though it’s wikipedia policy to go by the common name that sources are using, not official names. They literally spent *years* fighting about Ivory Coast yet still can’t consistently apply a guideline

12:07
Comment From RAJ
IM AFRAID JACK Z WILL TAKE MY JOB. PLZ GIVE ADVICE.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Is the job really *yours* anymore?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: You’re essentially in a similar position to Edward V of England.

12:08
Comment From Joe
The Dodgers offense has gone downhill since they traded Mike Morse for Jose Tabata. correlation equals causation in this case, right?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Naturally.

12:08
Comment From John
Obviously the Arrieta trade looks terrible for the Orioles in hindsight. But was it really a bad deal at the time? Is there any chance he would have developed like this in Baltimore?

12:08
Comment From hscer
you of course mean Côte d’Ivoire.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: WIKI FIGHT~!

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I don’t edit wiki, but I’m fascinated, from the intellectual curiosity standpoint, with the ridiculous dispute bureaucracy they’ve put together

12:09
Comment From carl
Hanley to 1st – how is this going to work out better than Hanley in LF?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: At least he’s played infield somewhere before at a better-than-Todd Hundley level.

12:09
Comment From hscer
1. d4 http://gameknot.com/analyze… (and poll!)

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I still have to figure out how to set this up so people can see a board.

12:11
Dan Szymborski: If we end up in semi-slav, I’m cancelling the chat.

12:11
Comment From Neal
So, Josh Johnson’s hair.

12:11
Comment From WALLOM
Assuming they can get a deal done, who might the Yankees have to give up to get Robertson back?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: It’s not happening.

12:11
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
So, the A’s are starting their young core with Phegley/Semien/Burns/etc. 2016 potentially has some of Wendle, Pinder, Walsh, Olson, Ravelo, Nunez, Manaea, Nolin coming up. When the hell did all the upper-minors talent get so stacked?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: The A’s conjure B+ players out of thin air, like rather specific alchemists

12:12
Comment From Reginald Denton III
NL Cy Young candidates: Greinke, Kershaw, Arrieta, in that order. Agree?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I might put Kershaw above Greinke.

12:12
Comment From Vandy Commodores
Yesterday the Jays ran out a starting lineup of: Revere, JD, Bautista, Edwin, Tulo, Smoak, Martin, Pillar and Goins. Prior to that Tulo was leading off and Revere was hitting 7th. What would be the Jays optimal lineup?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Run it through a lineup sim!

12:12
Comment From Steve Perry
So my Braves…sheesh. Some fans freaking out, not realizing it is a process. Do you siee ATL doing anything in the off-season…maybe go after Cespedes (I don’t)? Or they targeting nternational?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Braves do anything big this offseason

12:13
Comment From Joe
Do you accept requests for those cards? I would like to see a Dusty Baker card!

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I do them as the mood fancies.

12:13
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12:14
Comment From Bill
Szymborski, my man! Welcome back!

12:14
Dan Szymborski: where did I go?

12:14
Comment From Daniel
Rest of season who is better: Raisel Iglesias or Kris Medlen?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I’ll still say Medlen

12:14
Comment From Julio Pepper
The Phillies seem suddenly interesting! Strange world, right?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: It is.

12:15
Comment From Josh G
Does Berrios get the call in September?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

12:15
Comment From Ehh
Most regrettable contract signed this off-season goes to?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Panda

12:15
Comment From Vic
Fantasy wise, if you could have a quality SP like degrom or Arrieta for the next 4 years or a Buxton instead of the SP, would you take the Buxton risk or the SP? You only get one or the other and the decision must be made now with only Buxton’s 2015 data.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I would take the SP. Centerfielders are overrated in most fantasy formats – a large part of their real life value, the ability to play centerfield, isn’t valued in fantasy and in most cases, the SB doesn’t make up for it.

12:16
Comment From Cashmere+Taco
need your fashion/aesthetic opinion: best and worst uniforms?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: My fashion opinion? I’m the guy that if I like a shirt, I just buy one of every color and am done for the year.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: Like I have this identical polo in 8 colors and the exact same Old Navy sports in every color they had.

12:17
Comment From rfs1962
Why does Fangraphs have the Dodgers with a 21% chance of winning the World Series? That seems crazy to me.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I don’t do those. You have to ask the FanGraphs guys!

12:17
Comment From DOUGLAS
Fantasy wise, if you could be a unicorn or a liger, which would you be?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: A liger isn’t a fantasy creature – they actually exist. Unless I get to be Jushin Liger, which would be badass.

12:18
Comment From Richard Feynman
I welcome the Dan Szymborski libertarian paradise but I am concerned about the growing power of the cats.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I guess as a unicorn, you can impale people awesomely on your horn. And virgins try to catch you.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Hmm, makes me wonder if terrorists think they’re unicorns.

12:19
Comment From GSon
Better chance of making to the post season.. Cleveland or Texas? WHY?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Rhetorical? Texas – 5 games is a huge deal at this point

12:19
Comment From Oren
What contract do you expect David Price to land this offseason?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: 7/200 or so.

12:20
Comment From DOUGLAS
Right. Next you’re going to tell me narwhals exist. Whatever man.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: There was a hilarious narwhal video on youtube some years ago

12:20
12:21
Comment From Guest
If a genie came up to you and said if you ate something gross, like a snotty booger or a piece of poop, it would let the M’s win that day every time you did it, how often would you do it?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Why would I want that?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Though technically, because of the way our systems work, you actually eat a *lot* of boogers.

12:21
Comment From MSW
So Cuddyer’s not the worst deal of the offseason anymore? I’m shocked!

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Cuddyer was the poorest conceived, but less was at stake

12:21
Comment From J
What are your thoughts on the value of seeing pitches? For example, Dexter Fowler is a decent enough hitter, but he also tends to have long at-bats. How much value does that have beyond where it shows up in his OBP?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: I think it has some value, but it can be overrated as the differences just aren’t *that* huge

12:22
Comment From MSW
Norht Korea has all of the unicorns, duh

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Unicorns are integral to the Juche Idea.

12:22
Comment From Matthew E
Anthony Gose seems to goof something up every time he takes the field. Typically do guys like that smarten up or do their teams just have to learn to live with it? (Or not, as the case may be.)

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I think that the tendency sticks around.

12:23
Comment From Julio Pepper
Probability Tanaka ends up getting surgery?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Still think it’s a conflip to happen

12:23
Comment From hscer
oh, for everyone to see it? that might be tough. I can take a screenshot and post the position after each move

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, these August post-trade chats tend to be the poorest attended of the year

12:24
Comment From GSon
inre UNicorns.. you’ve been misinformed.. you want to be a retired triple crown winner..

12:24
Comment From kevinthecomic
Narwhals, Narwhals swimming in the ocean, causing a commotion, because they are so awesome!!! {repeat}

12:24
Comment From Julio Pepper
You’d want that because everytime you ate one you could make money betting on the M’s?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Good point. I’d certainly eat boogers if I could get guaranteed sports bets. I don’t even have to endanger the timeline like Biff Tannen. I just have to eat boogers.

12:24
Comment From Kookaburra Joe
If you are Jon Daniels, what do you do with your COF spots next year, with Hamilton, Choo, Gallo, Mazara, DeShields and Rua all hanging around as options? Does it make sense to pay half of Choo’s contract to move him now, or should they hang onto him for another year?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: If you could pay half of Choo’s contract, I’d let him go for free

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I think the Rangers are going to play it by ear – there’s no need to make a decision right now

12:25
Comment From Steve Perry
Did Shelby Miller sleep with every position player’s wife or something? Sure, ATL has a bad offense….but this looks almost intentional.

12:25
Comment From Phil
I realize what it could mean, but given the O’s lack of a promising farm system and seemingly closing window (with Davis and Wieters, and possibly both O’Day and Chen, leaving after this year), does it not make sense to see what you can get for Machado? I think they have to use what they have to help the future. I don’t know that they will have enough FA money to realistically have a strong chance to compete the next couple years and Machado is gone after 2018 anyway.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: This offseason, I think you need to make a real effort to sign Machado to an extension or a real effort to trade him. I’m increasingly pessimistic about the O’s future.

12:27
Comment From Wood
Derek Holland has looked great so far. Worth rostering over Quintana or Richards for the stretch?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s necessarily a gain

12:27
Comment From Minty
In terms of hitting, Joc has been sucking. But with his walk rate, how can Mattingly justify sitting him and having Rollins and Utley 1-2?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: TEH BATTING AVERAGE

12:28
Dan Szymborski: He has kinda sucked lately, but sitting guys never gets them over slumps

12:28
Comment From Anon21
The Braves’ rebuild has really gotten off to a horrific start, huh? From building blocks like Teheran collapsing to multiple highly-regarded prospects completely failing to a league-worst organizational hitter ISO and pitcher K-BB, this looks like an organization in shambles. Can you see them returning to contention before 2018?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: Before 2018? Possibly – that’s a long time in baseball terms. I think they’ve had very mixed results though

12:29
Dan Szymborski: They blend really smart things like the Toussaint trade but then stuff like the Olivera trade – a rebuilding team shouldn’t have any interest in a guy who’s 31 in 2016 and very little US experience.

12:29
Comment From Minty
How bonkers am I for being excited for Baez’s promotion and only slight decrease in K’s?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: It’s fun because he has such a high upside

12:29
Comment From Neal
I’d let Shelby Miller sleep with my wife (or me) if he came to the Jays.

12:29
Comment From carl
Don’t you think there is something seriously wrong with basebabll if trading a 22 yr old superstar because he might go to FA in 3 years is a reasonable choice?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: No, teams have to make long-term decisions.

12:30
Dan Szymborski: The problem isn’t that he’s going FA in 3 years but that the O’s don’t look like they’re actually going to be good in those 3 years.

12:30
Dan Szymborski: The farm system has had a lot of setbacks. They’re not spending a bunch of money.

12:30
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
but is there something wrong when one team has $300MM to sign that player and the other has to let him go to that same first team again

12:31
Dan Szymborski: The teams that had the eventual $300 million players for the first six years got a lot more profit from the player than the team giving the player $300 million.

12:31
Comment From MATTINGLY
HE AINT GOT THE GRIT, THE EXPERIENCE, ALL THAT NON NERDY STUFF.

12:31
Comment From MSW
Cubs-Mets NLCS sure would be fun, right? Too bad we’re gonna get stuck with Giants-Cardinals again.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Giants make the playoffs

12:31
Comment From Josh G
Do you thing Kang can reach 30 HR one of these years?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: That’s a little aggressive.

12:32
Comment From Neal
Is there any good argument for the O’s not allowing their prospects to use the Cutter? I know they say it’s for injury purposes but has there every been anything linked to an injury from a specific pitch?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Everything a pitcher does is linked to injury. Pitchers are the expensive vase awkwardly balanced on the edge of a table next to a cat of baseball.

12:33
Comment From L. Scott
Will Donaldson lose MVP votes because of the offense he is on? The Blue Jays would stilll win without him in my opinion. Could this be another test of the true meaning of MVP?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: No. He’s got that Storyline thing which will boost him more. I think he’s a worthy candidate, but the Storyline stuff makes me figuratively barf

12:33
Comment From Josh G
Is AJ Pollock the most underrated player in baseball?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Quite possibly. he at least should be upgraded to a higher ranking fish. He should at *least* be A.J. Haddock by now.

12:34
Comment From Peter Angelos
how do the Nationals have money for their guys? What’s the difference between their market and the O’s? aren’t most Nationals fans just ex-Orioles fans that were fed up with me?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: heh

12:34
Comment From hscer
you mean there aren’t a lot of chatters who must know how the waiver trade deadline is going?

12:34
Comment From Julio Pepper
Baseball ref has Kiermaier as a 6-WAR player. Wtf!

12:35
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to have a hard time maintaining +40 defense.

12:35
Comment From hscer
Pete, you’re not the only rich guy around. Ted Lerner’s pretty wealthy

12:35
Comment From Yesman
Your thoughts on Polanco? Is he putting it together, beginning to realize potential?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Sure as hell hope so.

12:35
Comment From MSW
Assuming the Mets achieve the improbable and don’t collapse down the stretch, how would you structure the rotation/bullpen? Given their glut of starters (including Matz and Verett), would you consider tandems in the postseason? Have two starters for each game, and if the first one falters you’ve got another guy ready to go, plus protection against 3rd-time penalites?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I hate tandems – so much can go wrong. Just have one in long relief.

12:36
Dan Szymborski: You start going with planned tandems and you have a rigid inflexible structure for little benefit.

12:36
Comment From Guest
Last night Arrita singled and everyone freaked out that being on the bases will effect him (it didn’t). Has there been studies done on if pitchers running bases effects their pitching in the following innings?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Never seen one and my hypothesis.

12:36
Comment From mike wants wins
Who cares what “value” a team got by having a star when he’s cheap, if they have to keep trading off guys and have to decrease their competitiveness. As fans, we want wins, not “value”. Of course, somehow the data shows salary structure doesn’t matter…..but is that because teams cycle thru competitiveness, high spenders or not…..if a smart team could keep their best players, and sign players, it seems like they should stay competitive longer. Maybe we just don’t have enough years of data yet with the new ways teams are running.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Of course it matters. What exactly did the O’s do to “earn” Manny Machado other than pick a consensus top 3 player after a year in which they sucked? They’ve earned tens of millions of dollars off his performance and paid him much, much less.

12:38
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
At the very least the luxury tax stuff the Dodgers are doing is complete horseplonk. What are they over right now? $150 million?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: And they have worse record than the Pirates, Astros, and Royals. What’s the complaint, that the Dodgers get to spend horribly efficiently?

12:39
Comment From Sean
How did the Diamondbacks get two semi-decent prospects (abliet relief) for Addison Reed? A non-tender candidate??? Thanks Mets.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: He’s probably worht a tender, but I’m surprised he got anything.

12:40
Comment From mike wants wins
Nothing, but it is the system, right? As a fan, why should we care about excess value stuff?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: By the same token, as a fan, why should you care about salaries? Every team has the chance to be competitive.

12:40
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
Yes! That they have at least $150MM extra to mess around with. That’s not great.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: And worse than the alternatives, which are solely going to be more money in the pocket of the owners.

12:41
Comment From Phillies113
When are the 2016 ZiPS going to be released? I’ve been waiting an awfully long time so far, Szymborski.

12:42
Comment From Josh G
What’s your take on the Kike Hernandez batted ball last night, hit or error?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: While it was a tough play, ruling it an error is consistent with how hit/error are generally scored in baseball

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Which, of course, is haphazardly

12:43
Comment From DMB
Mr. Dan, Bryce Harper has great DRS but mediocre UZR/Def thanks to his ARM number (even tho he has a highlight gunning someone out every other night). With which system — DRS or UZR — do you stand on his truth in defense? And you can’t chicken out with the political answer of “weakness of small sample size of defensive metrics, etc…” because you are Da Man in setting the DMB defense ratings, whatcha gonna do?! Give Bryce and his cannon a terrible rating? Or ignore the stats? And if you are going to ignore the numbers, what use are they? They just matter when they matter?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: I tend to go in the middle. Defensive stats are volatile

12:43
Comment From Luke
Why do advanced defensive metrics not love Keith Hernandez? Is he that overrated?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: They dont? Hernandez was at what, 130 runs above average by Smith’s method?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s enough opportunity at 1B for someone to be 20 runs better than average every year

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Which makes sense – if you had that potential differentiation, it would be a more crucial defense

12:45
Comment From MSW
What’s your take on people who can’t figure out the é in Kiké? Shouldn’t we all just call him Enrique unless we’re saying it out loud?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Most people dont’ instinctively know alt-0233.

12:45
Comment From Guest
Has Correa pretty much already won ALROY or does anyone else have a shot? He seems to get the most attention of anyone else

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think Travis’s injury has sealed it.

12:45
Comment From Ehhh
AA a shoe in for exec of the year?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Looking that way.

12:46
Comment From Sean
A lot of people (e.g. Dave Cameron) think there is no way the Diamondbacks are in the market for Price/Cueto/Zimmermann? Why not? They have $70 million in free money next year and a new TV contract kicking in. Their position players rank second in the NL in fWAR and every single one of them is under team control. They barely lost out for Tanka. Why exactly couldn’t they nab one?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: They *could* but I’m not sure they actually do.

12:46
Comment From Pedro Alvarez
There’s enough opportunity to be 20 runs below average, though!

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that’s his actual ability though. Below-average, but it’s hard to consistently be -20 at first

12:47
Comment From Julio Pepper
Wait what about Lindor for ROY? He’s been great.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Lindor has exceeded expectations. But he’s not beating Correa for it

12:48
Comment From Minty
Assuming Trout’s wrist is fine next year, is he or Harper #1 next year?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Still Trout

12:48
Comment From Guest
I wasn’t around for the origins of #6org, so my perspective is only that of knowing 4 years of middling-to-bad SEA teams with questionable FO decisions. What motivated such high regard for SEA at the time? Even if Dave is bright and largely not too into the Ms, was optimism regarding the future of his/Sullivan’s once-favorite team coloring judgment at the time?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: There was a belief that the Mariners as an organization were going to implement modern techniques of player analysis. That belief expressed turned out to not be true.

12:48
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12:49
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
D-Backs are going after Maeda, right? That seemed very poorly concealed by sending RJ out to scout him in Japan, as well as Stewart expressing an interest to ‘sign a Japanese player’

12:49
Dan Szymborski: That’s a pretty good assumption.

12:49
Comment From Pedro Alvarez
Well, it’s hard to be consistently -20 at first because true-talent -20 defenders at 1b are called “Designated Hitters”

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I’mt not sure many of those are actualy *that* bad.

12:49
:

12:50
Comment From MATTINGLY
When looking for mates how much should child bearing his count? I know a female with one child already that has very good hips. I tell her she can still have at least half a dozen but she just turns me down. What do i do Dan?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: See, I try to *avoid* fertility.

12:50
Comment From Sean
The lead time on my question being posted is about 2.3 seconds. It really is dead here, isn’t it? Time for a 2 hour en(lightning) round?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll skip the Lightning Round. Today is oddly slow.

12:50
Comment From ButterNotMargarine
Please rank for best career: Matz, E. Rodriguez. Iglesias or McCullers. Thanks!

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Matz, mcCullers, Rodriguez, Iglesias

12:50
Comment From Gendo Ikari
Does the storyline stuff re: Donaldson make you barf more or less than the “Jays would still win without him cuz the offense is THAT GOOD” narrative? They’re 1.5 up in the division and Donaldson has obviously been worth a lot more than that.

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I haven’t actually been hearing that one, outside the question

12:50
Comment From Guest
Actual NL Cy Young down to Arrieta/Greinke if season ends today, right? Too many voters moved by Greinke’s low ERA and Arrieta’s Ws (plus that no-hitter), not enough into FIP/xFIP to appreciate Kershaw.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Probably. Voters are a whole ar ebetter, but still not great.

12:51
Comment From tough critic
If A-Rod didn’t cheat, that fan in Atlanta would still be alive today.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Someone’s going to make that argument for realz

12:51
Comment From nacho
where do you see joc ending up? he isn’t as good as he was to start the year, and he isn’t as bad as he is currently, but what is he closer to?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I thought his projection coming into the season was fair and still do

12:52
Comment From Luke
I could be reading it wrong but FanGraphs only sees Keith Hernandez as about average defensively for his career (.3). If the numbers backed his reputation he’d look like a major HOF snub by fWAR.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: You’re reading it wrong. DEF is not defense relative to position.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: FG WAR for those years is Total Zone-based and if you scroll down, you can see the +121

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Which, if I’m not msitaken, is the best TZ for anyone until Pujols

12:53
Comment From Guest
Arrieta earned .5 WAR for the no-hitter; his team won the game despite rather uninspiring offensive performance that wouldn’t have beaten even good pitching over 9 (e.g. 3 ER). How do you explain to a casual fan that he wasn’t worth “the whole win” or something approximating it?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: That WAR isn’t supposed to be used on a game-by-game basis like that

12:53
Comment From Neal
Donaldson had the Jays on his back for a lot of the games before the trade deadline. I’m sure that factors into the MVP storyline as well.

12:53
Comment From Guest
Donaldson tops in WAR and all the sexy MVP stats, seems pretty easy tbh.

12:54
Comment From Druidiful
Do you think Severino would have had a shot at the AL ROY if he had been called up earlier in the year?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure – getting time at AAA, I feel, helped his development. He might not have been the same player as quickly if he had skipped AAA – he’s not cmopletely polished as a pitcher

12:55
Comment From P
Is Miguel Sano on pace to break some sort of three true outcome record? 58% of his PAs end in a walk, strikeout, or home run. Pitchers get him out 50% more often than fielders get him out.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: It’s quite entertaining.

12:55
Comment From Da Bears
Does Chen stay in the AL East?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:55
Comment From Cory S.
Could Joc be a Mike Cameron type?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Let me pull up Pederson’s updated comp list

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Hold on, I have to boot up the PC

12:56
Dan Szymborski: That PC. Obviously I’m on a PC because that’s how this interface works

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m not just speaking out loud while questions are beamed directly to my brain by tech

12:56
Comment From Houzer
What contract does Shark get this offseason, and should the Tigers look to add him as a safe #3, with #1 potential, and at a discount … say 3 year 45M?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I think he should get something like that, maybe 2/37 or something. The Tigers *should* be interested in that, but I’m not sure the Tigers have the understanding just how much they’ll have to spend to make one last run

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Because right now, I don’t believe the Tigers in-house have enough talent to do so

12:57
Comment From nacho
similar to my last question, how do you see the giants infielders holding up? they seem to be growing them off trees now, they can’t all hit for .300 can they?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: There will be some regression, but there are real players

12:57
Comment From Jen
Is it fair that some players basically never get a chance at ROY, because they get called up too late to compete but late enough to lose eligibility?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Not really, but not a great solution

12:58
Comment From Taylor
If Cameron’s “Puig is gone” idea is true, what do they add for Sale? Is that an idea the Sox would entertain at all, or would moving the face of the franchise be a non-starter?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think the Dodgers get Sale

12:58
Comment From Houzer
Better Tigers offseason signing … Cespedes or Heywayrd? Lets assume both demand 6 year deals

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think Heyward will be more economical than Cespedes, but remember, this is a team that just put Dave Littlefield in charge of player development

12:59
Comment From Neal
So, Hutchison for cy young right? Look at that juicy W-L record.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Thankfully we’re past that point

1:02
Dan Szymborski: OK, right now ZiPS projects Pederson for 2016 as 224/338/421, 113 OPS+, -1 D in CF, 3.4 WAR.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Comps of Chili Davis, Brady Anderson, Gus Bell, Ray Lankford

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Shin-Soo Choo, Dale Murphy, Ellis Burks

1:03
Dan Szymborski: and so on

1:03
Comment From rustydude
Could Dave Cameron be a Mike Cameron type?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: heh

1:04
Comment From Guest
Do Cutch, Rizzo, or Bryant leapfrog the 2-2.5 WAR gap and take MVP over Harper simply because their team makes the playoffs?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I think Harper’s too far ahead

1:04
Comment From nacho
how can we be sure you don’t have a device ala the riddler machine from the terrible batman movie doing just that?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: That would seem like an awful lot of work to put together

1:04
Comment From Druidiful
Which team that is in a position to make the playoffs if the season ended today, do you think will end up sitting out in October?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: None. I think the final playoff tally will be the teams currently in.

1:04
Comment From nacho
do you think the pirates catch the cards by the end of the year or are we locked into the cards as the number one seed?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Cards are number one seed.

1:05
Comment From tough critic
Do you think Hanley will be traded today? Will anyone be traded today?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so

1:05
Comment From Guest
Chili “Con Carne” Davis

1:05
Comment From Guest
Brady “Bunch” Anderson

1:05
Comment From Guest
Gus “Ring My” Bell

1:05
Comment From Guest
Ray “Of Light” Lankford

1:05
Comment From Guest
Shin-Soo “Choo-“Choo

1:05
Comment From Guest
Ellis Twerks

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Someone is entertaining themself!

1:05
Comment From TKDC
Let’s be honest, people would hate Arod with or without the steroid thing, right?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:05
Comment From Paul Goldschmidt
Harper? I’m just as worthy.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Goldschmidt is a clear #2, but Harper’s year is better.

1:06
Comment From Neal
Yankees claimed Robertson just so the Jays couldn’t. DAYUMN

1:06
Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t going anywhere though

1:06
Comment From Guest
Spare ARod spoil AChild

1:06
Comment From Druidiful
I think that Chili Davis is my favorite food named baseball player.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: nto Clarence Beers?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: or Al “Cheese” Schweitzer?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: And if the fat is rendered nicely, Ducky Wucky is good to eat

1:08
Comment From coach
Coco Crisp is probably a delicious breakfast cereal somewhere

1:08
Comment From Candy Maldonado
Candy is food.

1:08
Comment From Druidiful
There is “A. Beer Architects” that works in my area.

1:08
Comment From TKDC
Jayson Werthless

1:08
Comment From MSW
With Pollock int he fold, Fish-names are the tops among food-names

1:08
Comment From L. Scott
How come batting title races don’t get the attention they used to back in the day? Right now there is a good battle between Dee Gordon and Bryce Harper, with Goldschmidt looming.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Because sabermetrics won – so BA isn’t as interesting.

1:08
Comment From Cain Marko
Lightning round or not I must hear your thoughts on Rollins/Sting at Night of Champions

1:08
Dan Szymborski: More interested if this was 15-years-ago STing.

1:09
Comment From Alan
Do you have your analogies prepared in advance, or is your brain just particularly adept at comparing random events on the fly?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I don’t prepare anything except for images

1:09
Comment From Guest
Cocoa Crispies are delicious

1:09
Comment From TKDC
What percentage does Ryan Howard get on HOF balloting, at his highest point?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: 4

1:09
Comment From Guest
Kris Bryant v. peripherals who wins that fight

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Bryant of course

1:09
Comment From Sean
Mike Carp

1:10
Comment From RobertoBeers
You get to be celebrity for a day, living their life with your consciousness. Who do you pick?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: a Kardashian just so I could screw their lives up a bit

1:10
Comment From Druidiful
Is there something wrong with me that my favorite deck to play is a simple face hunter?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yes. You are a Bad Person. At least play mid-range hunter.

1:10
Comment From MSW
Tim Salmon

1:10
Comment From MSW
Chaz Roe

1:10
Dan Szymborski: but thats PRE FISH

1:11
Comment From Guest
Pumpkin beer

1:11
Comment From Phillies113
Who will, or should, the Phillies go after on the FA free agent market this offseason?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they should do anything on FA other than fill holes to eat innings/PA

1:11
Comment From MSW
Anthony Bass

1:11
Comment From Sean
FG’s own Jeff Sullivan has a post dedicated to fishy last names: http://www.lookoutlanding.c…

1:11
Comment From Dave
Justin Smoak’d Haddock

1:12
Dan Szymborski: now we’re reaching. He could have just as easily Smoaked a pork shoulder.

1:12
Comment From RobertoBeers
Hole Camels O__O

1:12
:

1:12
Comment From MSW
Sullivan is bae, sorry Zim

1:12
Comment From Mandatory High Socks
Chris Bassitt’s nickname is C-Bass

1:12
Comment From TKDC
Would you be more embarrassed to be outed as being in the Ashley Madison database or having an @aol.com email address?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: aol.com for sure

1:12
Comment From Guest
Camel Holes

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Now we’re really ereaching

1:13
Comment From Guest
Szym is love, szym is life

1:13
Comment From hscer
So is Clint Robinson actualy a good hitter?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: MIght be – expectation probably over .700 OPS now

1:13
Comment From Momus
Zeus changed into a swan and came down and slept with Leda – in case no one mentioned that already. I’m late to the chat…

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Oh that’s right, I got it backwards

1:14
Comment From deez nutz
that arizona hotdog is 3000 calories

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Have you ever looked up the nutritional information of chinese takeout? Don’t.

1:14
Comment From walter
Congrats on the move to Montana btw

1:14
Dan Szymborski: This was so weeks ago

1:14
Comment From Richard Feynman
Goddamn incredible carbonara: Cut up guanciale into little cubes. Fry it down till they’re little cubes of deliciousness. Take 2 eggs, beat them lightly, a cup of fresh grated parmesan, mix it all together until it’s like a paste. Boil the water (lots of salt), throw in the pasta, let it get to al dente, drain out 95% of the water, throw in the guanciale, then mix in the cheese/egg paste. Voila.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Just as long as you’re not putting in peas

1:15
Comment From TKDC
The Braves have a top-10 farm system, little to no dead money after 2016, and a couple of top-50 trade guys under contract for a long time. Isn’t doomsaying a little ridiculous?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Did I doomsay? I said they could compete before 2018

1:15
Comment From Matt
Is moving to Montana really worth a congrats?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s a joke – I didn’t move to Montana

1:16
Dan Szymborski: I prefer the presentation with the egg yolk whole and on top

1:16
Dan Szymborski: OK, time for me to go.

1:16
Comment From Guest
outfit that miley wore best last night:

1:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know. It was the VMAs and this wasn’t 1992 so I didn’t watch

1:16
:

1:17
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find me at ESPN.com, projections and chats at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and ZimSmash on Twitch.

1:17
Comment From Guest
montana’s nice as shit back off yo

1:17
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s a running gag that’s too long to explain

1:17
Comment From Momus
With Zduriencik gone and Amaro likely gone too, who moves into the top spot for “worst GM in baseball”? Dave Stewart?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: He’s up there!

1:17
Dan Szymborski: STOP ASKING QUESTIONS!

1:17
Comment From Dave
Ive recently just got into Hearthstone and already hooked and im willing to put some money into trying to aquire more cards to matchup better with those who have been playing the game a hella long time or those have already spent serious money in the game. now say i have £50-60 (about $70-80). What would you recommend purchasing?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Naxxramas and classic packs. Naxxramas has a huge density of cards that are still used in key spots and classic still most useful for new player

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Then you can get enough dust to craft the GVG/TGT cards you want

1:18
Dan Szymborski: While there are still playable mech decks, they’re not as universal as classic packs

1:18
Comment From Guest
Who won the president’s brawl thing you had going on here?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Still going – we have half the final four

1:18
Comment From Cain Marko
fortune cookie- 30 calories

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Not even worth thet 30

1:19
Comment From MSW
Dan Szym-borscht-ki

1:19
Dan Szymborski: hat ebeets

1:19
Dan Szymborski: My grandfather used to eat borscht with a ton of sour cream and caviar and then mix it all together so it looked like he was eating pepto bismol full of bugs

1:19
Dan Szymborski: And now he’s dead.

1:19
Comment From Sean
Dan wait

1:19
Comment From Sean
what kind of deck is best

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Best is a tough question. If you don’t have a lot of cards, various hunter/zoolock decks are best.

1:20
Dan Szymborski: You can also play aggro pally fairly cheaply

1:20
Dan Szymborski: OVER

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/31/15 by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Brad Overson
Guest
Brad Overson

What do you think the dbacks should do
This offseason??? Thanks