Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/26/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my pre-Opening Day chat. I’m just back from a brief ski vacation in Salt Lake City with my daughter; due to delays we didn’t get home until 3 AM so forgive the cobwebs. The second of my two Positionl Power Rankings ran while I was gone, the Right Fielders https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field

Jay Jaffe: The first of those was, um, first base, which ran early last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-first-base

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show…

Andrew: If it does come to light that Ohtani bet on sports, do you think the Angels are forced to vacate all their playoff wins while he was on the team?

Jay Jaffe: womp womp

TKDC: Over/under .5 game suspension for Ohtani when this all shakes out?

Jay Jaffe: Under. I think at most he’ll be fined. It’s a mess, and the Dodgers and Ohtani’s reps handled it poorly, but the more Ippei Mizuhara’s questionable past and failure to communicate what was going on comes to light, the more I’m inclined to believe that Ohtani was basically in the dark.

Von Hayes: Welcome to MLB 2024 everybody!

Jay Jaffe: Good gravy that’s quite a photo. Nothing to do with baseball but too awesome not to share

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: waiting for a cemitas and a birria taco from the nearby Mexican place

Guest: Will the Ohtani mess cause MLB to re-think their policy around gambling on any sports, either for players or team personnel?

Jay Jaffe: I think there will be some stern lectures in every clubhouse, and I think one upshot of this is going to be more vetting of translators and more focus on what they’re doing for their clients — since as multiple people familiar with Asian translators have said, handling financial stuff isn’t uncommon.

Mike Trout: Is Team Shohei going hard on the lying thief allegations seems the highest risk, highest reward scenario? That’s a serious accusation that will be heavily investigated.

Jay Jaffe: if they believe the facts are on their side,  I don’t see it as that high risk.

Jay Jaffe: I realize some people want to believe the worst, especially in this day and age where they’ve been given the permission to be their own biggest asshole selves, but I just don’t think it’s likely at all that Ohtani was dumb enough to jeopardize the massive earnings he stands to make by betting on baseball. Naive enough to trust a friend to handle more aspects of his life than just clubhouse interviews? That seems much more plausible

Rob: Are there any players for whom you think 2024 might represent a “make or break” year for their Hall of Fame candidacies?

Jay Jaffe: Carlos Correa needs to get back on track after a miserable season, Marcus Semien needs to keep the momentum going, Trea Turner needs to start putting up 2022-like seasons if he’s ever going to have a chance. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola both need to start banking more 5+ WAR seasons. Gerrit Cole, hopefully he’s not so seriously injured that he misses most or all of a season…

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and Giancarlo Stanton, after all this talk about his health and swing adaptations, needs to get off the schneid

dannyrock: Is Dustin Pedroia getting your vote for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t anticipate including him on my ballot

Scott: With everyone always asking about current players Hall chances, Who would you say is a modern day “Frank White” an excellent player and perennial all star caliber player who really has no shot at the hall of fame but still should be appreciated none the less?

Jay Jaffe: Among active players with the most All-Star appearances, Salvador Perez strikes me as one who’s gonna wind up outside the Hall. Not with a .300 OBP (or likely lower once it’s all said and done) and -115 framing runs.

Jay Jaffe: Some great moments, and i understand why Royals fans love him. I hope they build a statue for him as they’ve done for White.

MF Luder: Which bounce back season do you see as more likely, Giancarlo Stanton? Or Trevor Story?

Jay Jaffe: Ooh, tough call. I’ll go with Story because I think I’m more prone to overrating Stanton’s chances

Guest: With Lemahieu and Peraza injured and Cabrera likely more suited to a super-utility role, will the Yankees deal for someone who can play third in the near future?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I think they have to. They’ve had such a hard time keeping DJLM healthy that they can’t afford to wait around for him assuming he’ll be back to anything close to his best.

DisgruntledClevelander: Any teams you expect to get out to hotter starts than expected?

Jay Jaffe: if i expect them to get out to a hot start, then they wouldn’t be unexpected, right?

Jay Jaffe: If you’re asking, “Which team(s) look underrated and will do better than projected?” I think the Orioles probably top my list.

Nolan Schaneul: What is a reasonable expectation for Schanuel going forward? Is he an everyday regular quality level of player?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not tremendously sold on him given that he barreled just 2.2% of batted balls in his stint with the Angels; given his lack of power there’s a lot of pressure on his contact skills. Maybe there’s a best-case John Olerud type career if the power develops but I think he’s going to be more fringy.

Seager: Do you think Corey Seager’s two World Series MVP awards will be a big factor his hall of fame candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: yes, because it’s so rare and because it helps paper over his incomplete seasons. Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, and Reggie Jackson are the only other players with two WS MVPs, so that’s pretty great company.

Anon21: Let’s say that tomorrow, MLB implements a 10-pitcher roster limit and a 30-day minimum stay in the minors with no exception for injury replacements, with the goal of forcing starting pitchers to pitch about 75% of innings. Many careers end in injury, but MLB stays the course. Is the game better or worse off in 10 years?

Jay Jaffe: worse. Turning the game into more of a meatgrinder for pitchers ain’t it.

Bryce: Who do you prefer, Luis Robert Jr. or Michael Harris II? Robert’s power + defense combination is attractive, but I lean  Harris. I think I can see him easily become a top 10 player of baseball if he can lift the ball more.

Jay Jaffe: Tough call. We have Harris 3rd and Robert 5th in our PPRs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-center-fiel…. I’d lean Harris because he’s younger and has a stronger track record for health; last year was the first in which Looie Bob played even 100 games.

Jordan: why are there still a bunch of minor leaguers on the yankees team in mexico whilst most other teams have cut down their rosters?

Jay Jaffe: it was a split squad. Some Yankees played the Pirates and Mets, and some played Diablos Rojos

Blake Snell: Why do I look so much like Sid from “Ice Age”?

Jay Jaffe: I always think of Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel.

Jay Jaffe:

Tony Baloney: What do you make of the HoF chances of todays best late-career closers, Jansen and Kimbrel?

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about them last summer. Both need to keep their gigs as closer and add some bulk to their career numbers, if nothing else. I think Kenley is in slightly better shape as his recent years have had far less variance. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…

Sanford: Is it me or is it kind of silly the Guardians aren’t just sticking Gimenez at SS, who’s pretty clearly their best defensive option in the org at that position? I get they’re trying to see what they have in Rocchio or Arias, but why not give them run at a less demanding position (2B) and let Gimenez maximize his value?

Jay Jaffe: I tend to agree, especially given Giménez’s big defensive metrics, that his play would translate well enough to justify the move to the harder position

Guest: Does Stanton really have much of a chance at all for the HOF at this point? Unless he somehow produces several huge late-career seasons?

Jay Jaffe: Obviously his chances aren’t what they used to be but he’s an MVP (and MVP runner-up) with five All-Star appearances and a shot at 500 homers. Particularly given the dearth of recent 500-HR guys with clean reputations vis-à-vis PEDs, he stands out… if he gets back to being productive. That bat speed is still impressive, when he connects.

Jordan: Who has the better year overall Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford?

Jay Jaffe: I just put Langford down for my AL Rookie of the Year winner in our staff picks. Depending upon how you feel about my ability to reverse-jinx players, you have an answer there.

Drive Caminero: Without naming names, are there any teams that you viscerally do not like writing about, whether it be because you have major values disagreements with how they operate or the team plays/manages the game?

Jay Jaffe: Some teams I’m less up to speed on because they’ve been mediocre for so long that I’m less familiar with their players and their organizations, but I think it’s important to try to take an objective look at whoever I’m writing about.

Jay Jaffe: (the Department of Redundancy Department sent that one back for more editing)

wheelhouse: people seem to have wildly different estimations of what the yankees can and cannot afford to do/not do than the front office themselves have had

Jay Jaffe: The Yankees have unparalleled resources given the value of their brand, and yet their ownership has tended to be risk averse when it comes to free agents in recent years, and they’ve cost themselves by not taking the plunge. They’re running the game’s third-highest payroll and yet it feels like they’re not doing enough. It’s a tough position to be in because particularly if they’re not winning, the approach satisfies no one.

Woeba: If Anthony Rizzo can recover from concussion issues and post ~10 more WAR over the course of his career, could get get in to the HOF on the McGriff track?

Jay Jaffe: That wouldn’t be enough. If he’s just a 50ish-WAR first baseman I don’t see what makes him stand out over, say, Norm Cash or Mark Teixeira

Idiotic Failson: Since the White Sox are already rebuilding, can/should the Yankees look at Moncada?

Jay Jaffe: Not unless the White Sox are eating a ton of his remaining salary ($24M this year, $25M/$5M buyout next), particularly given how bad/injured he’s been the last couple of seasons.

Jason: With the recent additions by the Padres and Giants as well as the injuries to E-Rod and Sewald, do you anticipate the Diamondbacks struggling to make it back to the postseason this year?

Jay Jaffe: <glances nervously at his entry in the staff picks spreadsheet>

Jay Jaffe: I picked the D-backs and Giants as the NL #2 and #3 Wild Cards, leaving the Padres aside. All three are within 0.2 wins of each other in our Playoff Odds win projections so it’s a total toss-up, but I think youth is on their side

Mark: Seems like Torres leads off for the Yankees. Do you agree, or do you see someone else (Volpe) in the role this season?

Jay Jaffe: i think Gleyber is a safe and sensible choice to lead off. Volpe had a better rookie season than his .209 AVG would lead you to believe but he’s obviously got to do better when it comes to contact and getting on base to justify moving up to #1. I think he gets there eventually but maybe not this year.

Michael: With the exception of his recognition for durability (incredibly justified, maybe even underrated), is Nolan Ryan overrated, underrated, or appropriately rated in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: Historically, I think he’s been underrated to a great degree, mainly due to the .500ish won-loss record

Tony: NL/AL ROY thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: I went with Langford and Yamamoto — yes, he’s got a leg up on the competition given that he’s not a “true” rookie but he’s eligible for the award, and — rough Korea start notwithstanding — he comes into the season with a higher floor than Jackson Chourio or Jackson Merrill or the other options.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Good Afternoon Mr Jay! Just curious if you caught Chris Rose’s interview with Albert Belle awhile back? He definitely came off as a sweet fatherly type guy the opposite of his playing days for sure! Do you ever see a path for him to get to the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: No. I hope he’s in a better place now than he was two decades ago but I think Belle’s short career and numerous ugly incidents doomed his Hall of Fame case.

Jay Jaffe: (I did not catch the interview, tbc)

Sanford: Obviously there’s a lot of #discourse around lowering HOF standards for SPs (or at the very least modifying/reframing, thanks to S-JAWS). Aside from the Big 4 who deserve to get in by any standard, do you think this eventual lowering of standards will lean more towards a) longer career accumulators—e.g. guys like Buerhle, Pettitte, Hamels, or b) towards guys with worse counting stats but much higher peaks—e.g. deGrom, Sale, Felix?

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s one of the hardest things about this reframing, because there’s not a ton of crossover between those two types; Buehle and Pettitte, for example, had very little in the way of Cy-caliber seasons, and the guys you name who did have ’em will fall so short career-wise.

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s room for both but it’s figuring out who are the outliers within those groups most worthy of recognition. As I wrote in relation to Corey Kluber recently, the crux of the whole HOF SP standards situation is that if we decide a run like Kluber’s 2014–18 is worthy — or for that matter a lengthy career like those of Pettitte and Buehrle, then there are literally dozens of pitchers with similarly impressive runs, and logistically I don’t think there’s a way to honor an equitable share of them.

sliptoad: In terms of HOF chances do you think it’s easier to be Tucker who will likely accumulate more WAR while being a top-5/10 in the league at their position or as Yordan who’s unquestionably the best or second best at the position, but will probably rack up lower WAR totals thanks to DHing? Yordan’s definitely the bigger star, but he’s gonna make less money than Tucker in all likelihood.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s easier for Tucker, who has the broader base of skills (i.e., good defense and baserunning). Alvarez will have to be the second coming of Big Papi to get to Cooperstown, but… he’s been a total flop in 2 of the 3 World Series he’s played in.

Sodo Mojo: I know spring training stats are relatively useless but for a guy like Haniger who has been perpetually broken does a strong spring raise your expectations on his performance?

Jay Jaffe: In general, I think it’s reassuring to see that a player is healthy in spring training after such a mess of a season, injury-wise, but in Haniger’s case, his long track record of sparse attendance tempers that.

Skye: are you changing your value on Ohtani? Ive got a few hours to change my mind on his keeper status. I have a few others solid options\

Jay Jaffe: I think you’d have to be wearing a tinfoil hat to let this situation affect your valuation of his performance.

FANGRAPHSQuestion: Hey Jay, I’m wondering how injuries factor in Playoff Odds. The Cards for example are getting hammered and so are the Reds and yet their odds haven’t changed on the NL Central graph at all to reflect it. Wondered if you knew the answer?

Jay Jaffe: The odds are based on projections including playing time, and if they’re barely budging, that’s a sign that at least projection-wise, there’s not a ton of drop-off when it comes to absorbing some of the lost innings/plate appearances for the guys who have gotten hurt. That said, we tend to be pretty conservative when cutting down playing time for what right now doesn’t seem to be a season-threatening injury, and the other issue with that is the assumption that there’s no drop-off in performance for a guy who’s been hurt, when it might very well be the case that he can’t be close to 100% even if he’s able to come back on an expected timetable.

Ol Hoss: Does Jordon Montgomery need a start date to effectively ramp up to starter length outings or can he train normally minus whatever coaching or equipment is unavailable to him outside of team facilities?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine that like Blake Snell — who threw a 4-inning sim game shortly before being signed _ he’s been throwing enough to be at least partially ramped up, but I’d imagine the earliest we’ll see him would be sometime in the back half of April

Robert: Jordan Walker’s fielding just put his teammate on the IL for around 3 weeks. Will he be moved to a different position potentially.

Jay Jaffe: yikes, I missed that while traveling. Other than DH, though, I’m not sure where else the Cardinals can put him so long as they have Goldschmidt at first base. Walker has the athleticism to be a competent outfielder but needs the reps.

AJ: Do you think Bumgarner has no chance at the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: 37 career WAR, had just two 5.0-WAR seasons including offense, won his last game at age 32, last had a double-digit win season at age 26… 2,209 career innings… I know that his 2014 postseason was amazing but that’s not gonna be enough.

AJ: Do you think Curt Flood should be in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, but his case depends on non-performance factors and the system isn’t well-designed to even put him in a position for election

Jung Hoo: Please say something nice about the Giants.

Jay Jaffe: I do like their late-winter aggressiveness, think they got good deals on Chapman and Snell to improve to the point that they’re in the thick of the Wild Card hunt.

Peez: Do you expect any collusion complaints to follow this offseason? Has there been any complaint since Barry Bonds’ (which was dismissed)? There was the finding in 1987 resulting in  $280 million payout in 1990 and in 2006, “the owners made a lump-sum payment of $12 million dollars, to be taken from the nearly $70 million dollars in luxury-tax funds then held in reserve by baseball, to settle planned claims of collusive activity following the 2002 and 2003 seasons.”

Jay Jaffe: nothing strong enough to generate a favorable outcome in terms of a grievance

Guest: Re: Stanton, but also other guys- how much value do you personally place on ASG appearances when evaluating for HOF? To me, given the fan vote, they aren’t a particularly objective thing to reward someone for. Stanton’s overall WAR feels pretty low – he’s at 41.8. He’s put up only 3.8 fWAR in the last 5 years (217th among hitters), with 97 HR over that stretch. If he finishes in his late 30s with a HR total in the low 500s and a fWAR below 50, would the 5 ASG and 1 MVP be enough for you to vote for him?

Jay Jaffe: It has some value but it’s hardly a determining factor. Adrián Beltré was a clear slam dunk Hall of Famer despite having just four All-Star selections, and there’s no way on God’s green earth I’ll vote for Sal Perez, who has eight.

Walker: What’s the likelihood that Betts ends up with more career WAR than Trout?

Jay Jaffe: Trout has over a 20-win edge by bWAR (85.2 vs. 64.8) and is just one year older so I don’t see it happening.

Woeba: When is SP 1-15 getting posted?

Jay Jaffe: uh, it’s up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-ro…

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, there are more good questions than I can get to. Thanks for stopping by, and note that I’ll be one of the staffers participating in either our 4 pm or 7:30 pm Opening Day chat on Thursday. Until then, don’t sprain any ACLs or UCLs, please.