Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/1/15

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t worry

Comment From GRANDPA
KILEY YOU’RE LATE

Kiley McDaniel: Good to hear from you, internet

Comment From Mark
Comments on the Nationals bringing Trea Turner up without giving him playing time?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it on the podcast this week. On the face, it doesn’t make much sense when he could get regular AAA at bats for a few more weeks, but the fact that he’s likely the opening day starter next year means there’s a little more urgency to see him around the big leagues and gauge his mental readiness.

And, since they’re in a race and can’t play him everyday, it would take longer than 4 weeks for him to get a true 4-week experience in the big leagues. That’s me trying to figure out why WSH did it this way and you can kinda see where they’re going.

Comment From Fredo in Lake Tahoe
Kiley, what do you hear about the Dodger’s International Purge? Dissatisfaction with the Engle regime? Seeing the imposed signing ban as a natural reset point for Friedman to have his own people? Something else?

Kiley McDaniel: When a new guy comes in to run a team, he almost always has an idea of who he wants ideally in each dept and the odds are very low that it’s the guy who is already there, especially considering that guy’s boss just got fired/replaced. Some GMs don’t have the power to make the ideal or even the improvement happen in each dept, but Friedman does, so he did. I don’t see it as some long-term evaluative plan or liking/not liking certain things, he’s just more comfortable with his guys

Kiley McDaniel: And, at a deeper level, I’ve had a lot of conversations with industry people in the last few weeks about the idea of ranking execs at each level (GM, Asst GM, VP of scouting, dir of analytics, dir of amateur scouting, dir of int’l scouting, dir of pro scouting), not objectively but the concept of it.

If you look at the 30 guys at each level for each team, there’s gonna be 2-3 that make a real, noticeable, likely measurable difference for the better, 2-3 that do the same for the negative, then the other 25 are all basically the same with only surface level or style differences and there’s another 25 or so below that level that could also likely be that in that meaty middle of average relatively quickly.

The idea that so-and-so drafted so-and-so and that exec or scout is now elite is really dumb, in regards to any of the guys that made any one or a few picks. Even getting a group of like-minded people to agree who those 2-3 good/bad execs are is pretty hard to do.

I say all this to explain that dumping one director of whatever and picking another basically doesn’t matter in the scheme of things for almost all situations, so picking a guy you’re more comfortable with is a thing you can actually measure, making it a real separator. That’s my analysis of most moves like this.

Comment From Tony
Is Cody bellinger a top 100 prospect? Seems like he really broke out this year

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, but in the top 200-250. It’s still the Cal League. Go look at Matt Olson’s numbers last year and he didn’t make the top 143.

Comment From Forsyth
Anderson Espinoza: Top 15 prospect next season? Top 20? What are your thoughts on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Well I focus more on what he is now than guessing what my eval will be a year from now, especially with young hard throwing pitchers, the riskiest group of prospects in baseball. He’s top 100 or just misses at this point. Would be a top 10 pick in the draft and that’s generally where those guys will be/are ranked the winter after being drafted. They can jump 50 or so slots up/down based on the first full year, so you can kinda do the math as far as what to expect rankings wise.

Comment From Paul
Cistulli’s FV, under/over 60?

Kiley McDaniel: eek no comment

Comment From Pat S
On Friday I asked Jeff if he had any thoughts on Ben Gamel and I was scoffed at. I just did not want to wait until the next Kiley chat, but that day has finally come. What are your thoughts on Ben Gamel as a major leaguer? He has been killing it in AAA but isn’t on any top prospects lists. Any chance he has Gardner-like potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that kind of guy. He’s a 60 runner that has below average power and ordinary hitting tools. Gamel is back on the map now as far as prospect value, but still in that 4th outfielder or low end everyday guy range, depending on who you talk to. Him and Mason Williams both took a big jump from fringe dude to that sort of guy this year after both scuffled at High-A/AA.

Comment From Shyam
Kiley, any thoughts on Pedro Gonzalez? Lots of favorable comps on him entering this year, and he’s been producing so far.

Kiley McDaniel: His comps are all tied to his height. When he was on the July 2 showcase circuit, I heard Manny Machado and Alex Rios mentioned the most, as scouts strained to think of a guy with that sort of build, so both comps don’t really cover the tools that well. It’s also sorta like Cole Tucker with the Pirates. I’d say Gonzalez ends up at 3B and could be a 50 or better bat with fringy to average game power, so the everyday profile is there, but he’s 17 and the length of his arms/K rate will kinda dictate how this goes.

Comment From JR
What’s the upside of Taylor Guerrieri? He seems to be having a great year, although in very limited innings.

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him last week and it was a little better than I heard from scouts earlier this year. low 90’s with life and command, attacked, changeup is at least avg and curve is above to plus. He’ll probably be a 50 FV this offseason, so you could toss him on the popup guys list from last week’s in-season update. Solid, close to the majors league average starter type and not much more.

Comment From Forsyth
Moncada has hit .328/.432/.540 with 7 HR and 41 SB in 49 G since the ASB. Is that more in line with what you were expecting? Saw in Gammons article yesterday, a professional scouting director called him “a switch hiting Cano who can fly”. Safe to say the early-season panic can be thrown out?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, but the Cano thing is a little premature. I see what he’s saying, but publishing that quote makes it seem like an 80 bat is expected. That’s the kind of hype garbage that pro scouting directors get mad at the media about.

Comment From Brando
What are your expectations of Javy Baez for the remainder of the year?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really thinking about him. I was the low guy on him but didn’t think this would happen. He needs a mental adjustment to scale his whole thing down at the plate and it sounds like he still hasn’t consistently been able to do that yet.

The Cubs told me they brought him up before the other big prospects last year because his mind can wander and he needed the cold reality/failure/focus that the big leagues would bring. He now needs the same thing, to be embarrassed about this demotion and figure out what he can do to get back up. Until someone tells me he’s done that or something close to it, I’m not really gonna spend much time keeping track of him.

Comment From Julio Pepper
So, talk to me about Andrew Benitendi. Destroying A ball. I like to think of him as “Shin Soo Choo + fielding.” How high are you on him?

Kiley McDaniel: I like him, I think I was on him a little before the broad media consensus as a top half of the first round guy and even slid him up a slot or two since the draft. I usually wouldn’t do that so quickly, but the main question was about hit and power against top pitching with wood bats since scouts basically weren’t watching him until March and most of his peers have been watched closely for years. He’s showing that we shant worry about that, at least not right now.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From RotoLando
Describe to your readers what a month of Hector Oliveira production looks like?

Kiley McDaniel: Caught a game of his last week at AAA. It’s above avg to plus power, fringy to average at 3B defensively and the hitting tools are there to hit at least .250 or .260 the first time through the league, but there was still a little rust to shake off, so hard to project if it’ll be bad, good or average for a month in the bigs.

Comment From Frank
Lewis Brinson just turned 21 and just got promoted to AAA. What’s your opinion of Brinson’s year and the Rangers’ aggressive approach with him?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m literally going to see Round Rock tonight/thursday and I thought Gallo/Mazara/Rua/Chi Chi were good enough reasons, so this is fun. He was in contention for the top 26 midseason list and is in the top 50. Really liked the tools as far back as high school but the playability of them was a big problem then and I wasn’t sure he’d be able to put it all together. Sounds like he’s beat expectations by a good margin in that sense.

Comment From Rafael
Alex Verdugo is a top 200 prospect now or, as you say, a 50 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I think he probably is

Comment From Derek
Is Dylan Bundy a Has Been or a Never Was?

Kiley McDaniel: He absolutely was and still could be, but expectations are much lower now and he better do it next year, because he’s gonna be out of options.

Comment From Rick
At what point in time do results surpass potential? IE, how much longer do we need to hear about the 3 plus pitches Mark Appel has while he subsequently can’t get anyone out?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on the specific player. I gave Appel the benefit of the doubt with all the concerns in college (I saw one God awful outing from him in college and one all-time great one) and so far he hasn’t rewarded me/HOU, but the stuff is still there, so 30 teams would still like to have him.

Comment From Greg
You mentioned Acuna yesterday. Any chance he takes a Victor Robles path of development?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s asking a lot for a toolsy short season guy that outside the top 500 prospects in baseball to become a top 50 guy the next season. That happens like 1-2 times per season from a pool of hundreds of players, so that’s about how likely it is.

Comment From Corry
Am I wrong to think the Reds may have a pretty decent starting rotation next year? Bailey, Iglesias, Desclafani, Stephenson, with the 5th spot a battle between Cingrani, Lorenzen, Moscot , Finnegan, Lamb, Reed etc..?

Kiley McDaniel: If you have 2 starting quarterbacks, you actually have 0

Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Kiley. As a rough estimate, what percentage of 30 FVs play themselves up to average MLB regular?

Kiley McDaniel: Very very small. Like a handful of big leaguers at any given time would qualify as that, although it depends on when they were non-prospects (which is what 30 FV means). If you say AAA non-prospects then it’s like a couple players, if you say A-Ball non prospects, it’ll be a few more but not a big numbers. Some guys end up being solid big leaguers, but don’t look like a prospect of any kind until they really prove it at the upper levels statistically.

Comment From Lumpy
Jose berrios wasn’t called up?!!! Are the twins even trying?

Kiley McDaniel: Berrios was the most impressive pitching prospect I watched this year and Terry Ryan was two rows in front of me at that outing….so he knows what he has. Maybe he is so impressed he wants to control the service time and/or have leverage for an extension. Let’s be positive!

Comment From Raindog
Pitching prospects that leave Baltimore (Arrieta, Rodriguez) immediately thrive. Those that stay (Tillman, Matusz, Britton, Gausman, Bundy, Harvey) are either mediocre, relievers, or both. Can we say Baltimore sucks at developing pitchers? Do we have any idea why?

Kiley McDaniel: I think you’re taking a pretty aggressive stance there, but a scout brought these names up with me recently, so there’s enough of a track record to this for people to notice. Not sure what to make of it. It’s a small enough sample of names that it could all flip next year. And Britton is arguably the best closer in the game so, while that’s not what was expected from him as a prospect, you obviously take it. Gausman is one of those guys that I think is one adjustment from taking off while Hunter Harvey is one full healthy season from the same. So I guess I’d say give it another year before you buy pitchforks in bulk.

Comment From Nelson
AJ Reed is putting up silly numbers this year. When do you think is his ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess next year at some point. Reed is getting close to having nothing to prove in the minors, so you have to promote him to keep the challenges coming. Definitely more performance here than people were expecting on draft day and I bet Luhnow/Elias would say that on the record if asked.

Comment From Carl
Can we take it from the Pirates’ refusal to bring Tyler Glasnow up in September that there’s very little chance they will allow him to win a job in the rotation out of spring training in 2016? Most likely a May or June call-up next year?

Kiley McDaniel: I would bet this is both service time and talent related since Glasnow has been a little banged up this year and the stuff/command varied a bit. If he’s clearly won a rotation spot for next year, I bet they make him the #5, keep him down a week or two and postpone FA a year, but if he’s they’re best shot to win on opening day, I can’t see PIT waiting a few months for super two. That’s a net negative no matter the market size, if he’s ready and better than what you have.

Comment From Carl
AFL rosters coming out today, anyone you really hope to see get sent?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s so many players I’d like to see, so I can’t really make a list. Saw some early names like Jurickson Profar, and I was with a club when his hype train was first rolling, so I never got a good look at him. That one should be fun.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Can you tell me a bit about Trey Amburgey?? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: Nice find in Tampa at SPJC by the Yankees. Already has some buzz in the organization, solid tools. I’m told that new scout Ronnie Merrill was among those leading the charge for Amburgey internally.

Comment From Scott
What kind of role will Olivera play with the Braves? What kind of output can we expect from him?

Kiley McDaniel: Starting 3B. Hard to tell if the next month will be good/bad numbers, but for 2016 I’d look for .270, 20 homers at 3B.

Comment From MckyD
DO you see Lucias Fox of Socrates Brito as having more success in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Completely different guys, but I’d rather have Fox.

Comment From Neal
Has anything new come out about the International draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, wouldn’t expect much buzz about that for awhile. CBA ends after next season, which is when all that stuff goes down.

Comment From yolo
you seen Chad Pinder play any? Dude is destroying the Texas League.

Kiley McDaniel: Solid player, chance for avg to above bat, fringy to avg power and can play basically every position, but the tools are kinda average rather than star level.

Comment From Cory S.
Will you answer a non-prospect question? (that wasn’t me real question).

Kiley McDaniel: No

Comment From Brock Paperscissors
JD Davis: Cal League mirage or legit prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: In between

Comment From EC
Thoughts on Victor Robles? Top 100?

Kiley McDaniel: Top 50

Comment From Daragh
Any update on any of the Cuban guys? Is it likely we have to wait until the off season at this stage?

Kiley McDaniel: Not a ton of buzz there right now, but there’s a group of players working out for teams that haven’t really been reported on yet that should get some money, along with the names you’ve seen mentioned in the last few months.

Comment From Daragh
Oscar De La Cruz…… Is he a notable prospect for you?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he’s on the list

Kiley McDaniel: 6’4, some athleticism, 90-93 heavy sinker, above avg curve, starter traits, some projection. Lots to like.

Kiley McDaniel: Tracked down this note from a scout on De La Cruz earlier this year: “he didn’t hesitate to take food from the premium seating buffet between innings, so you know he has cojones.”

Comment From EC
Any more reports on how Erick Fedde was looking? Has his performance coming back changed your assessment of him?

Kiley McDaniel: Flashing some of the previous stuff, but not quite all the way back with the velo/command/offspeed all in the same outing.

Comment From Rippers
The Rays Jaime Shultz has been a fun one to watch this year, seeing him dominate and then completely melt down the next start has been entertaining all year. I’m guessing his future is in the pen, but I’m curious if you have heard or seen anything about him the past 2-3 months.

Kiley McDaniel: Throwing even harder, sitting mid 90’s and hitting 98, hammer CB. Chance to start, but obvious relief value if he can’t.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty time to pack up for games in Nashville and Bowling Green the next few days. Gonna be lots of prospects to see.