Author Archive

Two-Start Pitchers: Week 13

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Nick Blackburn – April was not kind to Blackburn and he had a 5.14 ERA at the end of the first month of the season. Since then, he is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last 10 games, with eight Quality Starts in that span. With a poor K rate, Blackburn is always walking a tightrope. But he’s keeping runners off base (2.51 BB/9, .276 BABIP) and his 1.11 HR/9 is a tick below his career average. This week he gets two home starts, where he has a 2.40 ERA this season. Get him into your lineup.

R.A. Dickey – There was a lot of skepticism around Dickey after his breakout year last season at age 35. Now he sits with a 3-7 record and an ERA nearly a run higher than a year ago and the skeptics seem right. However, if it wasn’t for bad luck, Dickey seemingly would have no luck at all. In his last seven starts, he has a 2.23 ERA with a 3.08 K/BB ratio and a 7.51 K/9 yet only has two wins in that stretch. He could have six wins in that time with better fortune. Dickey has been pitching well and while the matchups are not overly favorable (@ DET, NYY) he still makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Matt Garza – The switch to the National League agreed with Garza, who fanned 68 batters in 55.2 IP in his first nine games with the Cubs. But tightness in his elbow landed Garza on the DL and he has not been the same pitcher since his return. In four starts since being activated, Garza has 14 Ks in 21 IP, has allowed 4 HR and has a 5.14 ERA. He faces two good HR teams in COL and CHW and if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley it could get ugly. Give him a spot on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Kyle Lohse – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A veteran Cardinals pitcher trades a bunch of four-seam fastballs for two-seamers, improves his walk rate and turns in a fine season. This year it’s Lohse’s turn to play this role and the results have been impressive. His fastball, which has been a double-digit negative in linear weights the past four years, now checks in as a 2.0 wFB. And his BB/9, which was 3.40 last year, now sits at 1.63, the fifth-best mark in the majors.

But the league seems to be catching on to Lohse’s new act. After opening the year at 7-2, 2.14 ERA he is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA in his last four starts. He’s also allowed 7 HR in 24.2 IP this month. Lohse has road starts in two AL parks this week. While he has pitched quite well on the road overall this year (5-1, 2.70 ERA), this still seems like a good time to give him the week off.

Ryan Vogelsong – Fantasy owners have been adding Vogelsong in droves over the past six weeks. And who can blame them, as he has a 5-1 record with a 1.86 ERA this season. Plus, his only loss of the year came in a game where he allowed 1 ER in 8 IP. Vogelsong has improved across the board in 2011. He’s added two-thirds of a strikeout to his lifetime K/9 rate and is closing in on cutting his BB/9 and HR/9 in half.

But he has a .260 BABIP and an 85.8 LOB% and a 5.1 HR/FB rate, which gives us a 3.40 xFIP. While that is a strong mark, it’s significantly above his 1.86 ERA. Also, Vogelsong has a big home/road split. At AT&T park (which has a 0.552 HR factor this year according to ESPN) he is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA. On the road Vogelsong has a 3.21 ERA. With two road starts this week, give him the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Beckett, Greinke, Kennedy, Wilson, Chacin, G. Gonzalez, Cueto, Scherzer, Bedard, Hellickson, Latos, Billingsley, E. Santana, Britton, Correia, Beachy, Porcello, Marquis, F. Garcia, Lannan, Hammel, Vazquez, Lyles, Francis, Reyes, Stewart, Talbot, Davis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.87 ERA, 0.766 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 1 ER
Britton – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 5 IP, ER
Collmenter – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 4 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 1.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9 IP, ER


Week 12 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: LeBlanc, A. Miller

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Godfrey

Dillon Gee – How much money do you think you could have made in Vegas at the beginning of the year by placing a wager for Gee to make the All-Star team? He couldn’t even make the starting rotation for the Mets, who spent the offseason signing every injury reclamation pitcher they could. But Gee is 7-0 and in his last six starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA with a 3.0 K/BB ratio. And the only reason he’s not 6-0 is because he had to leave his last start after four innings (no runs, one hit) due to a rain delay.

Gee’s stuff is frequently described as underwhelming yet he has a double-digit SwStr%, which would be a top-20 mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He’s added over two full strikeouts per nine to his mark from last year, he keeps his walks to an acceptable rate (3.0 BB/9) and doesn’t give up many home runs (0.55 HR/9).

His matchups this week are mixed, with a home start against the A’s and a road start in Texas. But at this point, Gee should be owned in every league and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Get him into your lineup.

Derek Holland – In his last five games, Holland has pitched 31 innings and allowed eight home runs. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.52 ERA in this span. But he also has 27 Ks and a 2-1 record, which basically sums up Holland – he’s going to get you strikeouts and there’s a good chance he can get you wins, too. This week he has home starts against the Astros and the Mets. He has a 6.68 ERA at home this year and a 1.742 WHIP.

It seems like these would be good matchups for Holland, as Houston and New York are both near the bottom of the NL in HR. But Holland has been knocked around at home despite allowing just 3 HR in 31 IP. So he has just been hit unlucky. But the Mets and Astros are both above average in the NL in hits and New York is also above average in walks.

In making the decision with Holland it feels a little like going around in circles and that you can come up with a justification for whichever side for which you are predisposed. But ultimately if you have the depth, I would think this would be a good week to leave Holland on the bench.

Chris Narveson – Like Holland, Narveson is another SP option who may not be top tier, but who is worthwhile because he has a nice K-rate (8.04 K/9). But he is maddeningly inconsistent. In his last seven starts, Narveson has three where he’s given up 0 or 1 ER and four where he’s allowed four or more ER. One thing where Narveson has been a little more dependable is his home/road split. His ERA at home (3.86) is a full run lower than his road number (4.93). And while we usually think of Miller Park as a HR-friendly venue, Narveson has only allowed 2 HR in 32.2 IP at home compared to 5 in 45.2 IP on the road. This week Narveson has two home starts against AL clubs who will have to forfeit their DH. Make sure he is in your lineup this week to enjoy the Ks and hopefully pick up a win or two.

Carl Pavano – A rough start still has Pavano’s overall numbers looking pedestrian but he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in his last seven starts, with Quality Starts in his last three outings. But the Twins have not given Pavano much run support this year (3.40 per nine) and the veteran has displayed a big home/road split. At Target Field, Pavano is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. But on the road he is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA. This week he has road starts in San Francisco and Milwaukee. So while he has been pitching better recently, give him the week off if you can.

Carlos Zambrano – Those who believe in karma can look at Zambrano and nod with approval. After having the bullpen blow a win in his first start in June, Zambrano ripped his teammates. And while he apologized, the gods were not appeased, as in his two starts since the outburst, Zambrano has allowed 12 ER in 12.1 IP. So, will his penance be over after two starts or is he in for more payback?

This year, Zambrano has a 5.22 ERA on the road and has allowed 25 BB in 50 IP. It’s tough to win with that walk rate and Zambrano compounds the issue by permitting 6 HR away from Wrigley this year. This week he has two road starts in AL parks, meaning he faces an additional hitter. Keep Zambrano on the bench this week and hope that this will be the end of the repercussions for his remarks.


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 12

Welcome to the abbreviated version of Week 12 two-start pitchers. Remember, these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Weaver, Beckett, Kershaw, A. Sanchez, Romero, Floyd, T. Hudson, Cueto, Latos, Gee, Bumgarner, Zambrano, Arrieta, Morton, Holland, Pavano, McClellan, Narveson, Carmona, Fister, Nova, Happ, Penny, Nicasio, Hochevar, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Niemann, Outman, Godfrey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers, which will include the normal five recommendations.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 12.54 ERA, 2.464 WHIP, 9.1 IP, 13 ER
Jimenez – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER
Paulino – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 3 ER
Pineiro – Advised to start. K. 6.75 ERA, 1.875 WHIP, 5.1 IP, 4 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.82 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 11 IP, 12 ER


Week 11 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Cahill, Jakubauskas

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Britton, Outman.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill was an 18-game winner thanks in large part to having a .236 BABIP, the lowest mark among qualified starters. Cahill’s xFIP (3.99) was a full run higher than his ERA (2.97) and his FIP (4.19) was even higher. With an unimpressive strikeout rate of 5.40 K/9, many were calling for Cahill to be one of 2011’s biggest disappointments.

But after a start to 2011 that rivaled what he did last season, Cahill has hit hard times. He started the year 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA. Since then he’s 0-4 with a 5.35 ERA. His control has left him, as he’s allowed 18 BB in 35.1 IP in that span. Also he’s run into trouble with the gopher ball, having permitted 6 HR in that stretch. And even his hit rate has taken it on the chin, as he has a .324 BABIP.

Overall, Cahill’s xFIP is better this year (3.49) than it was in 2010 (3.99). But you won’t find any fantasy owner as enthusiastic about Cahill as his owners were in 2010. The good news for Cahill this week is that he has two home starts. While he has a 4.18 ERA in eight road starts, Cahill sports a 2.01 mark in six games at McAfee Coliseum.

But even at home, he’s allowed 14 hits in his last 13.2 IP. Cahill is scuffling all the way around right now.

Last week we looked at Tyler Chatwood. His two starts this week ended with 10.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Ks and a 1.688 WHIP.


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 11

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Bronson Arroyo – A 17-game winner a year ago, Arroyo has struggled through most of 2011. Nowhere has he struggled more than with the gopher ball, as Arroyo has allowed 16 HR in 75 IP. Eleven of those have come in his home park and this week the Reds host Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays. Arroyo has a road start in Dodger Stadium, where in six games lifetime he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA. Leave him on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Zach Britton – One of the top rookie pitchers, Britton has held his own pitching in the AL East. He’s been a little lucky with his BABIP (.260) and strand rate (75.7%) but has been a solid pitcher, with a 3.88 xFIP. However, Britton has a large L/R split, as the southpaw has held LHB to a .556 OPS this season. This week he has two road starts (4.94 road ERA so far this year) and he goes up against the Blue Jays, who lead the AL with an .880 OPS against LH starters and the Nationals, who are last in the NL with a .613 OPS against LH starters. Washington is missing Ryan Zimmerman versus lefties but Mike Morse is starting to hit and Jayson Werth has been better over his last three weeks (faint praise). Hold out Britton this week if you have other options.

Josh Collmenter – A 15th round draft pick in 2007, Collmenter is one of the top surprise stories of the year. He is 4-1 with a 1.12 ERA and fantasy owners have been snapping him off the waiver wire the past four weeks. Collmenter basically throws just two pitches and one of them is an 86.7 mph fastball. He succeeds thanks to an unusual delivery and pinpoint control. At some point it seems logical that hitters will adjust to his delivery. But this week he has two home starts and goes up against an AL team and the Giants, against whom he has thrown only two innings. Ride Collmenter in your lineup for another week.

Justin Masterson – It looked like Masterson turned the corner at the beginning of the season, as he began with a 5-0 record with a 2.11 ERA. But in his last six outings, he’s 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA, despite allowing just 2 HR in 40.2 IP. Masterson has done a fine job limiting HR this year and has improved his walks, going from a 3.65 BB/9 in 2010 to a 2.77 mark this year. But he still struggles against LHB (.794 OPS) and his 6.26 K/9 is a career low. The matchups seem okay on the surface, but both the Pirates and Tigers are better than they were a year ago. Sit Masterson if you can.

Carl Pavano – After posting a 6.64 ERA in his first seven games, Pavano has bounced back nicely in his last six outings. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA in that span and has allowed just 2 HR in 43.1 IP. Pavano has two home starts this week and at Target Field he has a 3.06 ERA, a full 2.5 runs lower than his road mark. Additionally, Pavano has allowed just 1 HR at home this year, compared to six in road parks. Make sure Pavano is in your linep this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Gallardo, Sabathia, Hamels, Jurrjens, Cain, J. Garcia, Shields, Ogando, Haren, Nolasco, Burnett, Floyd, Kuroda, Lowe, Norris, Dempster, Wolf, Niese, Vargas, W. Rodriguez, Villanueva, Carrasco, Pelfrey, Duffy, Maholm, Moseley, Wells, Duke, Karstens, Wakefield, Coke, Cobb, Volstad, Outman, Cook, Maya

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Bedard – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 5 ER
Bumgarner – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 1.929 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.58 ERA, 1.839 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 11 ER
Morton – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 3 ER
Santana – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.615 ERA, 13 IP, 9 ER


Week 10 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: F. Hernandez, Pineda, Garza, Liriano, Volquez, Chatwood and R. de la Rosa.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Pineiro, Garland, Swarzak, O’Sullivan, Lopez and Reineke.

Let’s take a look at Tyler Chatwood. A second-round pick of the Angels in the 2008 Draft, Chatwood played at three different levels in 2010 and he posted a combined 2.84 ERA in 155.1 innings pitched. Chatwood started 2011 in Triple-A but was called up after just one appearance with Salt Lake.

The 21-year old held his own in his first five starts in the majors, winning two of his three decisions albeit with a 4.90 ERA. But in his last six games, Chatwood has turned it up, as he’s posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 37 IP. While he allowed 17 BB in that span, he’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed just 1 HR over his last six starts.

Chatwood’s main issue is that he’s not striking many batters out. With a 4.06 K/9, Chatwood ranks 114th out of 117 qualified pitchers. With an average fastball velocity of 93.1, one would expect Chatwood to strike out more batters but he does not have a pitch to put batters away. His SwStr% is just 4.3 percent and neither his curve ball nor change is a strikeout pitch. In the minors his curve was thought to be a potential weapon but in the majors so far it has been a below-average pitch.

It’s theoretically possible to thrive with a strikeout rate that low, but you’ve got to really cut down on walks and Chatwood has a 4.76 BB/9. He has a below-average BABIP and an elevated LOB%, which explains his 4.72 FIP and 5.00 xFIP compared to his 3.64 ERA.

While his immediate fantasy prospects are not overwhelming, Chatwood is still an intriguing arm. He gets ground balls (44%), throws hard enough and keeps the ball in the park – a nice package from a pitcher this young.

Last week we looked at Jordan Lyles. The rookie had a strong debut as he allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Cubs. But Sunday he was knocked around by the Padres, as he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP and took the loss.


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 10

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER


Week 9 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 9 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: A. Sanchez, Hammel, Duensing, Guthrie, Lyles, Cobb

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Happ, Sonnanstine.

Let’s take a look at Jordan Lyles, the top pitching prospect for the Houston Astros, who will make his major league debut this week.

The Astros selected Lyles as a supplemental first-round pick in 2008, awarded for the loss to free agency for pitcher Trever Miller. Lyles has risen quickly through the organization. Last year he skipped Hi-A, as the Astros thought he could handle the jump, plus they were not eager to have him pitch in the hitter-friendly environment of Lancaster.

He excelled in Double-A, where he had an 8.15 K/9 as a 19-year old. Lyles had a late promotion to Triple-A, where he got knocked around in six starts. He began this season back in Triple-A, although this time in a different city, as Houston’s top minor league franchise is now Oklahoma City, rather than Round Rock.

In 10 starts this year in Triple-A, Lyles is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA. After posting a 1.86 WHIP in his first exposure to Triple-A, Lyles has a 1.24 mark so far this season. In his last three starts for the RedHawks, Lyles was 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed 0 HR and just 2 BB and fanned 10 batters.

Lyles is not overpowering but he has a deep repertoire and he throws strikes. It’s always impressive when a pitcher makes it to the majors at age 20. But you have to wonder if he is mentally ready to take on major league hitters and if Lyles will trust his stuff enough to thrive.

The matchups are not overly favorable for Lyles, either. He has two road starts and has to go up against Carlos Zambrano and Mat Latos. The tendency among fantasy players is to gobble up rookies when they get called to the majors, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Without dominating stuff, Lyles seems unlikely to be a fantasy stud in his first exposure to MLB.

Last week we looked at Carlos Villanueva. In his two starts, Villanueva picked up a win with a strong outing against the Yankees, where he allowed just two hits and one earned run in five innings. But his second start was a disaster, as he gave up 5 ER in 5 IP and was fortunate to come away with a no-decision.


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 9

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9.

Erik Bedard – After losing his first four decisions, Bedard has quietly put up some monster numbers in his last five starts. In that span, he’s 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA with 28 Ks and 7 BB in 33 IP. While his curveball may not be the unhittable pitch it was back in his pre-injured heyday, he still has an impressive 30.1 O-Swing%. Bedard has a deep repertoire and throws all of his pitches for strikes. He has two home starts this week against East Coast teams. It all adds up to a must-start week.

Madison Bumgarner – Each pitching staff has the guy that seemingly gets no run support and Bumgarner fills that role on the Giants. The offense has provided him with an average run support of 2.27 in his 10 starts, which explains how in his last six games, all Quality Starts, Bumgarner is 1-3. If he can’t get wins when he’s pitching well, what happens if he falters? This week he goes up against two pitchers with a combined 11-4 record this year. And with the Giants now without their cleanup hitter, it seems like a good time to sit the unlucky youngster.

Fausto Carmona – If you look at the WHIP leaders, you’ll see a nice collection of the game’s top pitchers and this year’s success stories. You’ll also find Carmona. So far this season, Carmona is 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA. And this is with a 1.18 WHIP. The last three starts have not been kind, as he has allowed 16 ER in 20.2 IP, thanks in part to 4 HR allowed. This week he goes up against Toronto and Texas, two of the better HR-hitting clubs in the AL. And his start against the Blue Jays is in Toronto, where the Jays have hit 30 HR in 23 games. Keep Carmona on your bench this week.

Charlie Morton – If you haven’t already read it, check out Cameron’s piece on Morton. Basically, Morton has revamped his approach and is now death on RHB. Some in the comments section even compared him to Doc Halladay. I don’t trust pitchers with BB/9 over 4 and Morton’s currently sits at 4.21 BB/9 after nine starts. This week he goes up against the Mets and Phillies, two teams that can easily put five LHB into their lineups. This seems like a week for the wheels to come off the Morton bandwagon so give him a spot on the bench if you can.

Ervin Santana – Everyone seems to be down on Santana because he’s not the pitcher he was in 2008. But the reality is he’s still a pretty good pitcher. The stat that jumps off the page is his 3.59 K/BB ratio, which goes a long way in explaining how both his FIP (3.41) and xFIP (3.52) are lower than his ERA (3.95). In his last two starts, Santana is 2-0 and in 15 IP he’s allowed just 1 ER with 2 BB and 13 Ks. This week he goes up against the Royals and Yankees, two teams struggling after hot starts. Get Santana active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lester, Cahill, Billingsley, Kennedy, Wilson, Carpenter, Colon, McClellan, Latos, Arrieta, Vogelsong, T. Hudson, Harang, Davis, Wood, Narveson, Marquis, Holland, McDonald, Penny, Blackburn, Happ, Hochevar, Dickey, Fister, Gee, Francis, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Volstad, Talbot, Sonnanstine, A. Rodriguez, J. Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Garland – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 8.38 ERA, 2.379 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 9 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 0 ER
Jimenez – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER
Porcello – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 8 IP, 0 ER
Volquez – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 9.35 ERA, 1.731 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 ER


Week 8 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Worley, Villanueva

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Chacin, McCarthy, Ross, Litsch, Blanton.

Let’s take a look at Carlos Villanueva, who is getting his first starts of the season after making 13 relief appearances.

The Blue Jays acquired Villanueva from the Brewers for a player to be named later following the 2010 season. He spent his first five seasons with Milwaukee bouncing back between starting and relieving for the first four years. Last year he worked exclusively out of the bullpen and at one point seemed to be in the mix for the closer’s job which eventually went to John Axford.

Villanueva has a starting pitcher’s repertoire, with a four-pitch arsenal. However, he has fared much better in short relief, with an ERA nearly a run lower when he works out of the bullpen throughout his career.

The 27-year old has always done a good job of racking up strikeouts but has struggled in most other areas. He’s a flyball pitcher with an elevated HR/FB rate. His success early this year can be attributed to a HR/FB rate half of what it was in 2010. Of course a .148 BABIP doesn’t hurt, either.

Villanueva has a tough game in Yankee Stadium and follows that up with a home start against the White Sox. The Yankees lead the AL in HR by a comfortable margin and the White Sox are above average with 44 HR going into Sunday.

If Villanueva can keep the ball in the park, he has a shot, especially against a Chicago squad that has struggled to score runs in long stretches this season. But given Villanueva’s history, that is a pretty big if, especially with these being his first starts of the year.

Last Sunday week we looked at Kyle Davies, who ended up pitching just 0.2 innings before landing on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.