Draft Dilemma: The 4th Pick

Each year, there’s always one pick in the draft that always seems to cause the biggest stir amongst the fantasy community and leads to the greatest number of emails seeking added opinions.  It used to be closer to the tail end of the first round when an owner was deciding between whichever offensive treat was left or the number one overall starting pitcher.  This year, I’ve received a number of emails from people with the 4th pick.  People with the 8th and 9th picks are rolling their eyes right now, but truly, the 4th pick can cause quite the conundrum.

If we’re looking at ADP rankings and assume that, for the most part, the top three picks are Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (RotoGraph Reader Mock Draft aside), then the fourth pick has a number of options and a variety of directions in which to go.  Who wouldn’t want a big, mashing first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez or Joey Votto?  The position gets unusually thin past the first six guys.  And of course I’d love to have a rotation anchored by Justin Verlander and his awesome strikeouts an miniscule ratios.  Or what about some 30/50 deliciousness from Jacoby Ellsbury?  All sounds enticing, but for me, there are just two ways to go…

Jose Bautista (3B, OF) or Troy Tulowitzki (SS)?

Both are top performers at their respective positions.  Both take care of the position scarcity concern.  And both will be gone before you even think about your next pick.  But which one do you take…?

Tulo’s a beast, no question about it.  To have .300-30-100 from your shortstop, arguably one of the thinnest positions out there, you’re way ahead of the game.  Some people will chime in about potential injuries, but you know what…?  There’s a potential injury waiting to happen to each and every major leaguer out there.  This guy is a true, all-around asset.  He’s got power, decent speed, a high average/OBP, and makes outstanding contact at the plate.  People will flat-out stare at you in disbelief, mouth agape, if you pass him over.

Bautista is coming off of another fine season that saw him hit 43 home runs with 103 RBI, 105 runs scored and a slash line of .302/.447/.608.  The counting stats were all down from the year before, but his average was 40 points higher, his OBP was insane thanks to a mammoth 20.2% walk rate, and he kicked in the same nine stolen bases.  This year, I expect roughly the same, but with a lower batting average.  Still, colossal numbers and stats that are always highly coveted.

But what picking Bautista also adds is position flexibility on your roster.  The fact that he has outfield eligibility opens your draft up that much more.  When you’re looking at your third, fourth or even fifth pick, elite third basemen like Ryan Zimmerman or Pablo Sandoval still make sense for you as you move Bautista to your outfield.  Even out there he’s a top five option….heck, top three is you really look at it.

Yes, if you took Tulo with the pick and wanted to snatch up a Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus, you could and fill your middle infield slot, but it just doesn’t make as much sense.

Again, both outstanding players.  A very tough decision.  But I would choose Bautista if the decision was mine.  I just like having that flexibility over my next few picks.