The Daily Grind: 4-14-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. DFS is not for everyone
  2. Today’s stacks
  3. Tomorrow’s traditional plays
  4. An entirely unexpected table

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1. DFS is not for everyone

My consultee has grown a bit surly after we lost money last week. We’re still up for the season, but I think he had visions of an exponentially increasing bankroll. Actually, I think he had visions of predictably winning almost every day. DFS has different ideas.

So here’s my advice – and this applies to any form of gambling. Don’t bet anything you’ll be sorry to lose. DFS is gambling just as poker is gambling. There is an element of skill, but the game has been intentionally rigged against us. I think that my baseball knowledge and strategic mind rig the game back in my favor. However, I could be wrong. If losing is going to (strongly) affect your mood, you’ve probably bet too much money.

2. Stack, stack, stack

It’s all late games today. I guess that’s easier although I’ve grown accustomed to morning baseball.

Late: The Braves against Roberto Hernandez is the obvious high risk, high reward stack. The Braves tend to mash or wallow, so this matchup could really go either way.

Tampa is capable of starting a ton of righties against Wei-Yin Chen. When combined with Camden Yards, we could have a lovely, cheap stack.

Wandy Rodriguez has not been at his sharpest this season, for that matter neither has Homer Bailey. I worry more about Rodriguez than Bailey, so I’d favor the Reds. Watch out for rain.

Here’s your total risk/reward stack of the day – Miami against Jordan Zimmermann. The Marlins jumped on him last time. Aside from the terrible outing and poor control, I can’t find any indicators of injury.

You know I want to stack Athletics against Hector Santiago. You just have to know I was going to recommend that.

Jordan Lyles and Eric Stults square off at Petco. Lefty Padres look particularly good.

3. For traditionalists (tomorrow)

To Start: Brandon Morrow has the friendly Twins matchup. His FIP components have been absolutely fantastic. His other peripherals, not so much. Let’s bet on FIP.

Jenrry Mejia has a tolerable matchup against the Diamondbacks. I’d like this more if he was home.

I’m growing to like Robbie Erlin. I think he might be a fantasy regular before too long. I hope we get a good half season before he’s too owned to mention.

To Exploit: Miguel Gonzalez has a home run problem, and it’s not just a small sample issue. While you’re at it, Jake Odorizzi is only mediocre.

The Yankees are quite familiar with Jason Hammel, watch that right field porch.

If I keep running Robbie Ross out on the exploit side, I’ll eventually look smart. On the other side of this one is Blake Beaven. He’s probably a better guy to exploit.

Phil Hughes starts again. He’s always fun to target.

Speaking of obvious targets, there’s Lucas Harrell again.

Hitters (power): Tomorrow might be a day to try Mike Moustakas against Harrell.

If Adam Lind or Dioner Navarro are available in your league, they both have a favorable matchup against Hughes.

Conor Gillaspie keeps getting middle of the order reps. Jake Peavy isn’t the best pitcher to target, but Gillaspie remains usable.

Do a barrel roll! I mean try lefty Rays against Gonzalez. Namely Matt Joyce and James Loney.

Hitters (speed): If you want to guess who is starting for the Red Sox, you might get a steal or two from Jackie Bradley Jr. I suppose I can mention Grady Sizemore here too. Shane Victorino is supposedly returning soon.

Abraham Almonte is a great speed pick against Ross.

David DeJesus is the speed component of that Rays stack.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There might be rain in Cincinnati. Currently, there is a 60 percent chance of rain for most of the entire evening.

The Link. Today is mostly green lights. It could be an offensive night.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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AlteredEgo
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AlteredEgo

Thanks again for these posts, Brad. Thoughts on stacking against Colby Lewis? Seattle lefties look tempting, plus your park factors chart makes it seem even better.