Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	190.2	14	8	29.1%	4.7%	2.69	2.67	5.7	5.4	74.4	113.2
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	171.0	12	7	30.1%	8.9%	2.74	2.83	4.8	4.9	66.6	98.4
3	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	195.2	16	7	22.4%	6.3%	2.71	3.32	4.1	4.9	72.8	98.4
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	173.0	14	8	26.6%	7.8%	3.07	3.08	4.4	4.1	60.2	87.5
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	180.2	11	9	24.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.29	3.9	3.6	53.4	77.6
6	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	171.0	12	10	26.2%	5.6%	3.37	3.18	4.0	3.0	51.8	76.8
7	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	168.2	11	8	30.4%	8.5%	3.52	3.17	4.1	3.4	50.7	75.6
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	140.1	8	6	28.8%	5.5%	3.08	3.09	3.2	2.9	46.4	68.4
9	Kris Bubic	48.0	4	2	24.2%	7.2%	1.69	2.69	1.4	2.0	23.7	33.4	153.0	10	8	23.2%	7.8%	3.12	3.42	3.0	3.4	48.4	66.7
10	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.71	0.7	1.3	13.6	16.9	141.0	9	5	28.6%	5.7%	3.13	3.31	3.4	3.3	46.6	65.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	190.2	14	8	29.1%	4.7%	2.69	2.67	5.7	5.4	74.4	113.2
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	171.0	12	7	30.1%	8.9%	2.74	2.83	4.8	4.9	66.6	98.4
3	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	195.2	16	7	22.4%	6.3%	2.71	3.32	4.1	4.9	72.8	98.4
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	173.0	14	8	26.6%	7.8%	3.07	3.08	4.4	4.1	60.2	87.5
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	180.2	11	9	24.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.29	3.9	3.6	53.4	77.6
6	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	171.0	12	10	26.2%	5.6%	3.37	3.18	4.0	3.0	51.8	76.8
7	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	168.2	11	8	30.4%	8.5%	3.52	3.17	4.1	3.4	50.7	75.6
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	140.1	8	6	28.8%	5.5%	3.08	3.09	3.2	2.9	46.4	68.4
9	Kris Bubic	48.0	4	2	24.2%	7.2%	1.69	2.69	1.4	2.0	23.7	33.4	153.0	10	8	23.2%	7.8%	3.12	3.42	3.0	3.4	48.4	66.7
10	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.71	0.7	1.3	13.6	16.9	141.0	9	5	28.6%	5.7%	3.13	3.31	3.4	3.3	46.6	65.3

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	201.1	15	9	23.4%	5.8%	3.04	2.79	5.0	4.7	67.1	105.3
2	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	207.0	14	7	28.3%	5.8%	3.30	3.27	5.0	5.0	65.1	93.4
3	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	182.2	12	10	27.6%	6.9%	3.01	2.99	4.7	4.9	62.7	93.4
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	180.0	11	8	30.0%	6.3%	3.35	3.02	4.3	4.1	56.5	86.1
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	169.0	14	8	27.3%	6.8%	2.98	3.17	4.0	4.2	61.0	85.9
6	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	181.2	14	8	26.2%	8.4%	3.17	3.53	3.8	4.3	60.5	80.1
7	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	162.2	14	8	22.6%	8.5%	3.37	3.11	3.5	2.9	50.0	75.1
8	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.76	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.7	175.0	10	11	29.6%	8.2%	3.55	3.39	3.7	3.5	50.1	71.7
9	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	14	8	28.0%	7.7%	3.37	3.58	3.2	3.6	54.4	71.5
10	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	173.2	11	9	30.4%	7.3%	3.42	3.60	3.9	4.2	53.2	70.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	201.1	15	9	23.4%	5.8%	3.04	2.79	5.0	4.7	67.1	105.3
2	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	207.0	14	7	28.3%	5.8%	3.30	3.27	5.0	5.0	65.1	93.4
3	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	182.2	12	10	27.6%	6.9%	3.01	2.99	4.7	4.9	62.7	93.4
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	180.0	11	8	30.0%	6.3%	3.35	3.02	4.3	4.1	56.5	86.1
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	169.0	14	8	27.3%	6.8%	2.98	3.17	4.0	4.2	61.0	85.9
6	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	181.2	14	8	26.2%	8.4%	3.17	3.53	3.8	4.3	60.5	80.1
7	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	162.2	14	8	22.6%	8.5%	3.37	3.11	3.5	2.9	50.0	75.1
8	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.76	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.7	175.0	10	11	29.6%	8.2%	3.55	3.39	3.7	3.5	50.1	71.7
9	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	14	8	28.0%	7.7%	3.37	3.58	3.2	3.6	54.4	71.5
10	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	173.2	11	9	30.4%	7.3%	3.42	3.60	3.9	4.2	53.2	70.5

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG