Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	152.1	11	3	32.7%	4.0%	2.42	2.26	5.5	5.6	65.2	103.1	199.1	14	5	32.1%	4.2%	2.48	2.38	7.0	6.9	83.3	130.2
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	193.1	16	7	30.8%	6.7%	2.61	2.65	6.2	6.5	80.7	120.4
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	189.0	13	7	28.5%	7.9%	2.71	3.12	5.0	6.2	71.9	100.9
4	Framber Valdez	152.1	11	6	24.2%	8.0%	3.01	3.00	3.9	4.3	51.3	76.7	203.1	15	8	23.8%	8.0%	3.05	3.15	5.0	5.4	67.6	98.1
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	159.0	13	5	25.1%	5.1%	2.26	3.04	4.2	5.8	68.1	93.9
6	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	183.0	15	7	27.9%	5.1%	2.95	3.34	4.3	5.2	66.7	90.3
7	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	192.0	15	7	22.6%	6.2%	3.05	3.32	4.3	3.8	63.9	89.0
8	Jacob deGrom	140.1	10	5	27.3%	5.5%	2.76	3.47	3.0	4.6	52.0	68.1	178.1	13	7	27.7%	5.5%	2.88	3.46	4.0	5.3	64.5	85.1
9	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.8	4.1	45.0	60.3	155.2	13	7	22.5%	5.6%	2.78	3.41	3.5	4.7	56.5	75.4
10	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	187.0	12	8	25.0%	4.6%	3.22	3.75	3.3	3.9	57.1	72.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	152.1	11	3	32.7%	4.0%	2.42	2.26	5.5	5.6	65.2	103.1	199.1	14	5	32.1%	4.2%	2.48	2.38	7.0	6.9	83.3	130.2
2	Garrett Crochet	152.1	13	5	30.8%	6.5%	2.48	2.54	4.9	5.4	66.0	99.1	193.1	16	7	30.8%	6.7%	2.61	2.65	6.2	6.5	80.7	120.4
3	Hunter Brown	143.0	10	5	29.4%	7.7%	2.45	2.92	4.0	5.3	58.9	84.1	189.0	13	7	28.5%	7.9%	2.71	3.12	5.0	6.2	71.9	100.9
4	Framber Valdez	152.1	11	6	24.2%	8.0%	3.01	3.00	3.9	4.3	51.3	76.7	203.1	15	8	23.8%	8.0%	3.05	3.15	5.0	5.4	67.6	98.1
5	Nathan Eovaldi	116.0	10	3	25.6%	4.7%	1.71	2.77	3.3	5.1	57.4	79.7	159.0	13	5	25.1%	5.1%	2.26	3.04	4.2	5.8	68.1	93.9
6	Joe Ryan	139.0	12	5	28.2%	5.0%	2.72	3.23	3.4	4.4	54.8	74.5	183.0	15	7	27.9%	5.1%	2.95	3.34	4.3	5.2	66.7	90.3
7	Max Fried	144.0	12	5	22.8%	6.1%	2.94	3.17	3.3	2.9	50.5	71.8	192.0	15	7	22.6%	6.2%	3.05	3.32	4.3	3.8	63.9	89.0
8	Jacob deGrom	140.1	10	5	27.3%	5.5%	2.76	3.47	3.0	4.6	52.0	68.1	178.1	13	7	27.7%	5.5%	2.88	3.46	4.0	5.3	64.5	85.1
9	Drew Rasmussen	117.2	10	5	22.5%	5.5%	2.60	3.33	2.8	4.1	45.0	60.3	155.2	13	7	22.5%	5.6%	2.78	3.41	3.5	4.7	56.5	75.4
10	Bryan Woo	146.0	10	6	25.3%	4.5%	3.08	3.68	2.6	3.4	47.5	60.8	187.0	12	8	25.0%	4.6%	3.22	3.75	3.3	3.9	57.1	72.7

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	190.0	10	11	28.7%	6.4%	2.32	2.67	5.9	7.3	77.6	116.3
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	198.2	14	6	25.0%	5.9%	2.67	2.89	5.4	6.9	74.5	110.0
3	Zack Wheeler	149.2	10	5	33.3%	5.6%	2.71	2.98	4.0	5.1	59.3	84.6	199.2	13	7	32.1%	5.7%	2.84	3.03	5.3	6.4	75.0	107.6
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	203.2	13	11	25.4%	5.4%	3.31	2.76	5.1	4.2	61.3	100.6
5	Matthew Boyd	142.2	11	6	22.6%	5.4%	2.46	3.17	3.5	4.8	55.9	76.9	188.2	14	8	22.6%	5.6%	2.77	3.33	4.3	5.6	67.2	91.9
6	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	187.1	15	6	26.3%	6.7%	3.07	3.45	4.1	4.7	64.3	86.1
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	170.2	13	10	27.8%	8.1%	3.01	3.19	4.5	4.7	60.5	85.4
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	179.2	17	8	26.3%	8.8%	3.11	3.85	3.3	4.9	64.4	77.5
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	191.0	12	8	25.3%	9.1%	3.20	3.82	2.5	4.5	59.3	73.7
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.1	1.7	32.5	53.3	180.1	14	7	26.6%	4.5%	3.89	3.21	4.1	2.5	45.8	71.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	148.0	7	9	28.6%	6.2%	2.13	2.51	4.7	6.1	62.6	95.3	190.0	10	11	28.7%	6.4%	2.32	2.67	5.9	7.3	77.6	116.3
2	Cristopher Sánchez	150.2	11	4	25.8%	5.9%	2.45	2.73	4.3	5.7	61.0	90.7	198.2	14	6	25.0%	5.9%	2.67	2.89	5.4	6.9	74.5	110.0
3	Zack Wheeler	149.2	10	5	33.3%	5.6%	2.71	2.98	4.0	5.1	59.3	84.6	199.2	13	7	32.1%	5.7%	2.84	3.03	5.3	6.4	75.0	107.6
4	Logan Webb	153.2	10	9	26.2%	5.5%	3.34	2.62	4.0	3.1	46.6	78.8	203.2	13	11	25.4%	5.4%	3.31	2.76	5.1	4.2	61.3	100.6
5	Matthew Boyd	142.2	11	6	22.6%	5.4%	2.46	3.17	3.5	4.8	55.9	76.9	188.2	14	8	22.6%	5.6%	2.77	3.33	4.3	5.6	67.2	91.9
6	Nick Pivetta	141.1	12	4	25.9%	6.5%	2.87	3.26	3.3	4.0	52.1	71.5	187.1	15	6	26.3%	6.7%	3.07	3.45	4.1	4.7	64.3	86.1
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	126.2	10	8	28.3%	8.6%	2.84	3.06	3.4	3.7	47.8	68.0	170.2	13	10	27.8%	8.1%	3.01	3.19	4.5	4.7	60.5	85.4
8	Freddy Peralta	136.2	14	5	26.1%	8.8%	2.90	3.74	2.6	4.2	53.1	64.7	179.2	17	8	26.3%	8.8%	3.11	3.85	3.3	4.9	64.4	77.5
9	Robbie Ray	148.0	9	6	25.3%	9.3%	2.98	3.73	2.0	3.9	49.2	61.9	191.0	12	8	25.3%	9.1%	3.20	3.82	2.5	4.5	59.3	73.7
10	Sonny Gray	135.1	11	5	26.8%	4.0%	4.06	3.11	3.1	1.7	32.5	53.3	180.1	14	7	26.6%	4.5%	3.89	3.21	4.1	2.5	45.8	71.6

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG