Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 152.1 | 11 | 3 | 32.7% | 4.0% | 2.42 | 2.26 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 65.2 | 103.1 | 198.1 | 15 | 5 | 32.3% | 4.3% | 2.41 | 2.38 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 85.9 | 132.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.54 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.1 | 191.1 | 16 | 7 | 30.9% | 6.6% | 2.54 | 2.66 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 81.5 | 120.5 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 143.0 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 7.7% | 2.45 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 58.9 | 84.1 | 188.0 | 13 | 7 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 2.68 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 72.6 | 102.2 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 152.1 | 11 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 3.01 | 3.00 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 51.3 | 76.7 | 202.1 | 15 | 8 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 3.07 | 3.09 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 67.5 | 99.1 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.77 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.7 | 159.0 | 13 | 5 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 2.26 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 68.1 | 93.5 |
| 6 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.17 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.8 | 191.0 | 15 | 7 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 3.02 | 3.30 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 64.8 | 90.3 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 139.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 5.0% | 2.72 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 74.5 | 182.0 | 15 | 7 | 27.8% | 5.1% | 2.92 | 3.36 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 67.0 | 90.0 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 140.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.3% | 5.5% | 2.76 | 3.47 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 52.0 | 68.1 | 177.1 | 13 | 7 | 27.6% | 5.7% | 2.79 | 3.44 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 65.7 | 86.6 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.68 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.8 | 185.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 4.8% | 3.11 | 3.70 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 60.1 | 76.5 |
| 10 | Drew Rasmussen | 117.2 | 10 | 5 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 3.33 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 45.0 | 60.3 | 157.2 | 11 | 6 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 2.74 | 3.38 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 56.0 | 75.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 152.1 | 11 | 3 | 32.7% | 4.0% | 2.42 | 2.26 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 65.2 | 103.1 | 198.1 | 15 | 5 | 32.3% | 4.3% | 2.41 | 2.38 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 85.9 | 132.6 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 152.1 | 13 | 5 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 2.48 | 2.54 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 66.0 | 99.1 | 191.1 | 16 | 7 | 30.9% | 6.6% | 2.54 | 2.66 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 81.5 | 120.5 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | 143.0 | 10 | 5 | 29.4% | 7.7% | 2.45 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 58.9 | 84.1 | 188.0 | 13 | 7 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 2.68 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 72.6 | 102.2 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 152.1 | 11 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 3.01 | 3.00 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 51.3 | 76.7 | 202.1 | 15 | 8 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 3.07 | 3.09 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 67.5 | 99.1 |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 116.0 | 10 | 3 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 1.71 | 2.77 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 79.7 | 159.0 | 13 | 5 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 2.26 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 68.1 | 93.5 |
| 6 | Max Fried | 144.0 | 12 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.94 | 3.17 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 50.5 | 71.8 | 191.0 | 15 | 7 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 3.02 | 3.30 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 64.8 | 90.3 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 139.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.2% | 5.0% | 2.72 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 54.8 | 74.5 | 182.0 | 15 | 7 | 27.8% | 5.1% | 2.92 | 3.36 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 67.0 | 90.0 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 140.1 | 10 | 5 | 27.3% | 5.5% | 2.76 | 3.47 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 52.0 | 68.1 | 177.1 | 13 | 7 | 27.6% | 5.7% | 2.79 | 3.44 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 65.7 | 86.6 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 146.0 | 10 | 6 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 3.08 | 3.68 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 47.5 | 60.8 | 185.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 4.8% | 3.11 | 3.70 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 60.1 | 76.5 |
| 10 | Drew Rasmussen | 117.2 | 10 | 5 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 3.33 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 45.0 | 60.3 | 157.2 | 11 | 6 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 2.74 | 3.38 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 56.0 | 75.6 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.51 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.3 | 190.0 | 11 | 11 | 28.9% | 6.4% | 2.27 | 2.66 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 79.7 | 118.6 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 150.2 | 11 | 4 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 2.45 | 2.73 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 61.0 | 90.7 | 195.2 | 15 | 6 | 25.5% | 6.0% | 2.62 | 2.87 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 76.2 | 111.7 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 2.98 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 84.6 | 199.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.4% | 5.8% | 2.75 | 3.08 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 78.3 | 109.8 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.62 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 78.8 | 202.2 | 14 | 11 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 3.33 | 2.76 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 101.3 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.0 | 170.2 | 13 | 10 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.90 | 3.14 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 62.7 | 88.5 |
| 6 | Matthew Boyd | 142.2 | 11 | 6 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.46 | 3.17 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 55.9 | 76.9 | 184.2 | 13 | 8 | 22.7% | 5.7% | 2.78 | 3.42 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 65.0 | 87.2 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 141.1 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 2.87 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 52.1 | 71.5 | 186.1 | 15 | 6 | 26.0% | 6.7% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 63.5 | 84.2 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.74 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.7 | 180.2 | 17 | 7 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 3.04 | 3.83 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 66.0 | 79.5 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.73 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 61.9 | 190.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.2% | 9.3% | 3.17 | 3.81 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 59.6 | 74.2 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.11 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 32.5 | 53.3 | 181.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.3% | 4.4% | 3.92 | 3.22 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 45.2 | 70.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Paul Skenes | 148.0 | 7 | 9 | 28.6% | 6.2% | 2.13 | 2.51 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 62.6 | 95.3 | 190.0 | 11 | 11 | 28.9% | 6.4% | 2.27 | 2.66 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 79.7 | 118.6 |
| 2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 150.2 | 11 | 4 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 2.45 | 2.73 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 61.0 | 90.7 | 195.2 | 15 | 6 | 25.5% | 6.0% | 2.62 | 2.87 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 76.2 | 111.7 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 149.2 | 10 | 5 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 2.98 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 59.3 | 84.6 | 199.2 | 14 | 7 | 32.4% | 5.8% | 2.75 | 3.08 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 78.3 | 109.8 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 153.2 | 10 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 2.62 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 78.8 | 202.2 | 14 | 11 | 25.7% | 5.4% | 3.33 | 2.76 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 101.3 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 126.2 | 10 | 8 | 28.3% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 68.0 | 170.2 | 13 | 10 | 28.1% | 8.4% | 2.90 | 3.14 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 62.7 | 88.5 |
| 6 | Matthew Boyd | 142.2 | 11 | 6 | 22.6% | 5.4% | 2.46 | 3.17 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 55.9 | 76.9 | 184.2 | 13 | 8 | 22.7% | 5.7% | 2.78 | 3.42 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 65.0 | 87.2 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 141.1 | 12 | 4 | 25.9% | 6.5% | 2.87 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 52.1 | 71.5 | 186.1 | 15 | 6 | 26.0% | 6.7% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 63.5 | 84.2 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | 136.2 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.90 | 3.74 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 53.1 | 64.7 | 180.2 | 17 | 7 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 3.04 | 3.83 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 66.0 | 79.5 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 9 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.98 | 3.73 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 49.2 | 61.9 | 190.0 | 12 | 8 | 25.2% | 9.3% | 3.17 | 3.81 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 59.6 | 74.2 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 135.1 | 11 | 5 | 26.8% | 4.0% | 4.06 | 3.11 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 32.5 | 53.3 | 181.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.3% | 4.4% | 3.92 | 3.22 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 45.2 | 70.9 |
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