Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.12	3.8	3.9	46.5	73.4	197.0	17	5	31.2%	4.3%	2.42	2.45	6.6	6.9	86.6	131.5
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.54	3.4	4.4	50.2	74.0	187.1	14	8	31.2%	7.2%	2.50	2.76	5.5	6.5	79.1	115.3
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.75	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.4	199.0	17	6	24.4%	5.8%	2.49	3.10	5.0	5.9	81.1	112.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.69	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.6	184.0	15	7	30.0%	7.8%	2.45	3.03	4.8	6.5	78.9	108.9
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.05	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.2	197.0	15	8	24.4%	8.4%	3.11	3.25	4.4	5.1	65.2	92.6
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.03	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.6	166.1	14	6	26.8%	5.9%	2.54	3.27	4.0	5.6	67.5	90.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.53	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.0	170.0	8	7	24.7%	7.4%	2.96	3.14	4.1	4.3	54.4	80.1
8	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.22	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.1	173.1	14	7	28.0%	5.6%	3.17	3.48	3.6	4.1	59.1	78.7
9	Nathan Eovaldi	72.1	4	3	26.7%	4.3%	1.87	2.39	2.3	3.0	32.7	49.6	156.1	10	7	24.9%	5.5%	2.82	3.13	3.8	4.3	54.9	78.7
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.50	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.1	189.2	15	10	28.3%	8.4%	3.32	3.79	3.3	3.8	61.6	76.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	102.0	9	2	32.1%	3.3%	2.29	2.12	3.8	3.9	46.5	73.4	197.0	17	5	31.2%	4.3%	2.42	2.45	6.6	6.9	86.6	131.5
2	Garrett Crochet	109.1	7	4	31.3%	7.2%	2.06	2.54	3.4	4.4	50.2	74.0	187.1	14	8	31.2%	7.2%	2.50	2.76	5.5	6.5	79.1	115.3
3	Max Fried	108.0	10	2	24.5%	4.9%	1.92	2.75	2.9	3.9	51.4	72.4	199.0	17	6	24.4%	5.8%	2.49	3.10	5.0	5.9	81.1	112.0
4	Hunter Brown	98.0	8	3	32.1%	7.6%	1.74	2.69	2.9	4.6	49.8	69.6	184.0	15	7	30.0%	7.8%	2.45	3.03	4.8	6.5	78.9	108.9
5	Framber Valdez	103.0	8	4	24.6%	8.9%	2.88	3.05	2.5	3.2	36.7	53.2	197.0	15	8	24.4%	8.4%	3.11	3.25	4.4	5.1	65.2	92.6
6	Jacob deGrom	95.1	8	2	25.9%	5.5%	2.08	3.03	2.4	4.0	43.1	58.6	166.1	14	6	26.8%	5.9%	2.54	3.27	4.0	5.6	67.5	90.2
7	Kris Bubic	91.0	6	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.18	2.53	2.9	3.3	39.1	59.0	170.0	8	7	24.7%	7.4%	2.96	3.14	4.1	4.3	54.4	80.1
8	Joe Ryan	91.1	8	3	29.1%	5.6%	2.86	3.22	2.1	2.7	35.1	48.1	173.1	14	7	28.0%	5.6%	3.17	3.48	3.6	4.1	59.1	78.7
9	Nathan Eovaldi	72.1	4	3	26.7%	4.3%	1.87	2.39	2.3	3.0	32.7	49.6	156.1	10	7	24.9%	5.5%	2.82	3.13	3.8	4.3	54.9	78.7
10	Carlos Rodón	101.2	9	5	29.7%	8.5%	2.92	3.50	1.9	2.5	38.7	50.1	189.2	15	10	28.3%	8.4%	3.32	3.79	3.3	3.8	61.6	76.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.25	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.6	205.1	14	9	25.6%	5.4%	2.85	2.69	5.6	5.2	73.2	114.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.50	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.6	191.0	11	10	27.9%	7.2%	2.40	2.72	5.7	6.9	76.6	114.5
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.67	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.2	198.0	14	7	30.6%	6.5%	2.77	3.04	5.4	6.2	76.1	108.2
4	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.95	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.3	179.2	13	6	25.3%	7.0%	3.06	3.18	4.3	4.9	60.7	87.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.24	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.5	172.2	13	10	27.6%	8.2%	2.92	3.39	3.8	4.6	62.4	83.8
6	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.66	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.3	146.1	9	7	30.3%	7.0%	2.77	2.87	3.9	4.4	55.5	82.0
7	Sonny Gray	93.2	8	2	26.9%	4.5%	3.36	2.96	2.4	2.0	29.9	46.0	181.2	14	7	25.5%	5.5%	3.52	3.31	4.0	3.4	52.7	76.8
8	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.92	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.8	182.0	9	13	29.3%	7.8%	3.46	3.31	4.3	4.0	52.2	76.2
9	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.41	1.9	2.2	30.4	43.0	190.2	12	8	23.6%	5.1%	3.35	3.53	3.4	3.9	54.5	75.0
10	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.27	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.2	171.1	14	7	26.9%	9.4%	3.26	3.61	2.8	3.5	56.9	73.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	107.1	7	5	27.7%	5.3%	2.52	2.25	3.4	3.2	42.7	69.6	205.1	14	9	25.6%	5.4%	2.85	2.69	5.6	5.2	73.2	114.5
2	Paul Skenes	106.0	4	7	26.9%	7.1%	2.12	2.50	3.4	4.2	43.0	66.6	191.0	11	10	27.9%	7.2%	2.40	2.72	5.7	6.9	76.6	114.5
3	Zack Wheeler	99.0	7	3	32.9%	6.5%	2.55	2.67	3.0	3.6	41.1	61.2	198.0	14	7	30.6%	6.5%	2.77	3.04	5.4	6.2	76.1	108.2
4	Cristopher Sánchez	93.2	6	2	26.6%	7.2%	2.79	2.95	2.4	3.0	34.1	50.3	179.2	13	6	25.3%	7.0%	3.06	3.18	4.3	4.9	60.7	87.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	89.2	7	6	28.4%	8.7%	2.61	3.24	2.0	2.8	35.9	48.5	172.2	13	10	27.6%	8.2%	2.92	3.39	3.8	4.6	62.4	83.8
6	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.66	2.5	3.0	36.1	54.3	146.1	9	7	30.3%	7.0%	2.77	2.87	3.9	4.4	55.5	82.0
7	Sonny Gray	93.2	8	2	26.9%	4.5%	3.36	2.96	2.4	2.0	29.9	46.0	181.2	14	7	25.5%	5.5%	3.52	3.31	4.0	3.4	52.7	76.8
8	MacKenzie Gore	99.0	3	8	31.8%	7.4%	3.09	2.92	2.8	2.9	31.4	48.8	182.0	9	13	29.3%	7.8%	3.46	3.31	4.3	4.0	52.2	76.2
9	Spencer Schwellenbach	103.2	6	4	23.5%	4.2%	3.21	3.41	1.9	2.2	30.4	43.0	190.2	12	8	23.6%	5.1%	3.35	3.53	3.4	3.9	54.5	75.0
10	Robbie Ray	92.1	8	2	27.6%	9.5%	2.83	3.27	1.7	2.5	35.6	48.2	171.1	14	7	26.9%	9.4%	3.26	3.61	2.8	3.5	56.9	73.8

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG