Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	190.2	15	8	29.6%	4.9%	2.55	2.73	5.5	5.9	78.8	116.4
2	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	192.2	16	7	22.9%	6.7%	2.80	3.42	4.0	4.7	70.4	93.6
3	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	171.0	15	8	27.8%	7.7%	2.89	3.01	4.5	4.4	64.9	93.1
4	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	171.0	13	8	29.6%	8.5%	2.89	3.03	4.3	4.6	64.0	91.9
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	179.2	12	9	24.6%	5.3%	3.26	3.35	3.9	3.6	54.7	77.7
6	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	170.2	12	8	30.0%	8.5%	3.53	3.20	4.0	3.3	51.9	76.6
7	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	171.0	12	9	25.7%	5.5%	3.37	3.28	3.9	3.0	51.6	74.7
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	143.1	9	6	28.5%	5.4%	2.95	3.08	3.3	3.2	50.1	72.6
9	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	189.0	12	11	23.3%	8.0%	3.57	3.53	3.5	3.3	49.8	70.2
10	Bryan Woo	44.1	4	1	25.3%	4.6%	3.25	2.90	1.2	1.0	14.6	22.4	157.1	13	7	25.0%	5.5%	3.26	3.48	3.1	2.9	50.7	68.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	190.2	15	8	29.6%	4.9%	2.55	2.73	5.5	5.9	78.8	116.4
2	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	192.2	16	7	22.9%	6.7%	2.80	3.42	4.0	4.7	70.4	93.6
3	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	171.0	15	8	27.8%	7.7%	2.89	3.01	4.5	4.4	64.9	93.1
4	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	171.0	13	8	29.6%	8.5%	2.89	3.03	4.3	4.6	64.0	91.9
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	179.2	12	9	24.6%	5.3%	3.26	3.35	3.9	3.6	54.7	77.7
6	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	170.2	12	8	30.0%	8.5%	3.53	3.20	4.0	3.3	51.9	76.6
7	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	171.0	12	9	25.7%	5.5%	3.37	3.28	3.9	3.0	51.6	74.7
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	143.1	9	6	28.5%	5.4%	2.95	3.08	3.3	3.2	50.1	72.6
9	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	189.0	12	11	23.3%	8.0%	3.57	3.53	3.5	3.3	49.8	70.2
10	Bryan Woo	44.1	4	1	25.3%	4.6%	3.25	2.90	1.2	1.0	14.6	22.4	157.1	13	7	25.0%	5.5%	3.26	3.48	3.1	2.9	50.7	68.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	200.1	15	9	24.1%	5.7%	3.14	2.82	5.0	4.6	65.1	102.5
2	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	181.2	14	10	28.1%	6.7%	2.77	2.95	4.8	5.5	69.4	100.7
3	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	206.0	14	8	29.0%	5.8%	3.19	3.36	4.8	5.3	68.0	94.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	167.0	14	9	28.3%	7.6%	2.75	3.16	4.0	4.7	65.5	90.4
5	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	172.2	14	8	31.7%	7.4%	3.02	3.44	4.0	5.1	64.5	84.8
6	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	181.0	11	10	29.3%	6.4%	3.43	3.19	4.1	3.8	54.6	80.9
7	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	177.1	14	9	27.1%	8.3%	3.15	3.76	3.2	4.5	60.6	75.2
8	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	181.2	14	8	25.9%	8.1%	3.32	3.66	3.4	3.9	57.3	74.3
9	Jesús Luzardo	47.0	3	0	26.6%	6.8%	2.11	2.32	1.6	1.7	20.6	32.0	171.0	8	4	26.2%	7.1%	3.26	3.33	3.8	3.7	50.2	72.4
10	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	164.2	8	4	23.8%	8.6%	3.33	3.16	3.6	3.1	46.2	70.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	200.1	15	9	24.1%	5.7%	3.14	2.82	5.0	4.6	65.1	102.5
2	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	181.2	14	10	28.1%	6.7%	2.77	2.95	4.8	5.5	69.4	100.7
3	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	206.0	14	8	29.0%	5.8%	3.19	3.36	4.8	5.3	68.0	94.2
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	167.0	14	9	28.3%	7.6%	2.75	3.16	4.0	4.7	65.5	90.4
5	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	172.2	14	8	31.7%	7.4%	3.02	3.44	4.0	5.1	64.5	84.8
6	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	181.0	11	10	29.3%	6.4%	3.43	3.19	4.1	3.8	54.6	80.9
7	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	177.1	14	9	27.1%	8.3%	3.15	3.76	3.2	4.5	60.6	75.2
8	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	181.2	14	8	25.9%	8.1%	3.32	3.66	3.4	3.9	57.3	74.3
9	Jesús Luzardo	47.0	3	0	26.6%	6.8%	2.11	2.32	1.6	1.7	20.6	32.0	171.0	8	4	26.2%	7.1%	3.26	3.33	3.8	3.7	50.2	72.4
10	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	164.2	8	4	23.8%	8.6%	3.33	3.16	3.6	3.1	46.2	70.7

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG