Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	189.2	13	9	28.8%	5.1%	2.75	2.90	5.2	5.3	71.6	105.4
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	181.0	12	9	30.3%	8.8%	2.78	2.93	4.8	5.2	68.6	100.2
3	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	196.2	16	7	22.5%	6.3%	2.75	3.43	4.0	4.8	72.6	96.1
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	175.0	14	8	26.6%	7.9%	3.09	3.18	4.4	4.1	60.3	86.0
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	183.2	11	9	24.9%	5.1%	3.19	3.18	4.1	3.9	56.4	83.3
6	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	171.2	11	8	30.5%	8.7%	3.41	3.11	4.3	3.7	53.5	80.0
7	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	174.0	12	10	25.9%	5.6%	3.26	3.19	4.0	3.3	54.4	79.7
8	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.71	0.7	1.3	13.6	16.9	152.0	10	7	28.9%	5.6%	3.02	3.25	3.8	3.7	52.6	73.8
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	141.1	8	7	28.8%	5.5%	3.06	3.07	3.2	3.0	47.0	69.4
10	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.60	0.9	1.1	18.0	22.9	187.2	13	11	28.0%	8.7%	3.60	3.83	3.1	2.9	53.4	67.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	189.2	13	9	28.8%	5.1%	2.75	2.90	5.2	5.3	71.6	105.4
2	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	181.0	12	9	30.3%	8.8%	2.78	2.93	4.8	5.2	68.6	100.2
3	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	196.2	16	7	22.5%	6.3%	2.75	3.43	4.0	4.8	72.6	96.1
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	175.0	14	8	26.6%	7.9%	3.09	3.18	4.4	4.1	60.3	86.0
5	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	183.2	11	9	24.9%	5.1%	3.19	3.18	4.1	3.9	56.4	83.3
6	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	171.2	11	8	30.5%	8.7%	3.41	3.11	4.3	3.7	53.5	80.0
7	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	174.0	12	10	25.9%	5.6%	3.26	3.19	4.0	3.3	54.4	79.7
8	Jacob deGrom	38.0	2	1	24.2%	6.0%	2.61	3.71	0.7	1.3	13.6	16.9	152.0	10	7	28.9%	5.6%	3.02	3.25	3.8	3.7	52.6	73.8
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	141.1	8	7	28.8%	5.5%	3.06	3.07	3.2	3.0	47.0	69.4
10	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.60	0.9	1.1	18.0	22.9	187.2	13	11	28.0%	8.7%	3.60	3.83	3.1	2.9	53.4	67.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	192.2	13	11	28.3%	7.1%	2.85	2.92	5.3	5.6	70.2	104.0
2	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	201.1	14	10	23.3%	6.0%	3.13	2.88	4.7	4.3	64.1	100.2
3	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	205.0	14	8	28.4%	5.8%	3.25	3.29	4.9	5.1	65.9	93.5
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	183.0	11	9	30.2%	6.3%	3.30	2.99	4.4	4.1	58.3	89.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	168.0	13	9	27.2%	7.3%	2.95	3.26	3.9	4.3	60.5	83.6
6	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	183.2	13	9	25.9%	8.4%	3.23	3.62	3.7	4.1	58.4	76.3
7	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.76	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.7	180.0	10	11	29.9%	8.5%	3.45	3.37	3.8	4.0	53.2	75.9
8	Sonny Gray	46.1	4	1	25.3%	5.9%	3.50	3.60	0.8	0.8	13.9	18.5	187.1	13	8	25.3%	6.6%	3.46	3.47	3.6	3.6	54.2	75.6
9	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	181.1	12	10	27.1%	8.7%	3.33	3.77	3.4	4.3	56.0	70.7
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	13	8	27.6%	8.0%	3.37	3.58	3.3	3.6	53.2	70.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	192.2	13	11	28.3%	7.1%	2.85	2.92	5.3	5.6	70.2	104.0
2	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	201.1	14	10	23.3%	6.0%	3.13	2.88	4.7	4.3	64.1	100.2
3	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	205.0	14	8	28.4%	5.8%	3.25	3.29	4.9	5.1	65.9	93.5
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	183.0	11	9	30.2%	6.3%	3.30	2.99	4.4	4.1	58.3	89.0
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	168.0	13	9	27.2%	7.3%	2.95	3.26	3.9	4.3	60.5	83.6
6	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	183.2	13	9	25.9%	8.4%	3.23	3.62	3.7	4.1	58.4	76.3
7	MacKenzie Gore	46.0	2	3	36.4%	7.0%	3.33	2.76	1.3	1.2	14.8	23.7	180.0	10	11	29.9%	8.5%	3.45	3.37	3.8	4.0	53.2	75.9
8	Sonny Gray	46.1	4	1	25.3%	5.9%	3.50	3.60	0.8	0.8	13.9	18.5	187.1	13	8	25.3%	6.6%	3.46	3.47	3.6	3.6	54.2	75.6
9	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	181.1	12	10	27.1%	8.7%	3.33	3.77	3.4	4.3	56.0	70.7
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	13	8	27.6%	8.0%	3.37	3.58	3.3	3.6	53.2	70.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG