Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 40.2 | 3 | 2 | 30.0% | 3.1% | 2.21 | 2.47 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 18.1 | 27.3 | 184.2 | 13 | 9 | 29.4% | 5.0% | 2.83 | 2.79 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 68.9 | 104.0 |
| 2 | Max Fried | 51.2 | 6 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.3% | 1.05 | 2.91 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 39.6 | 195.2 | 17 | 7 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.85 | 3.47 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 70.9 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | 49.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 2.84 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 31.1 | 195.0 | 14 | 9 | 28.8% | 8.5% | 3.23 | 3.26 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 64.5 | 91.3 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.0% | 6.3% | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 23.4 | 36.2 | 183.0 | 15 | 8 | 27.2% | 7.9% | 3.20 | 3.15 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 61.5 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 35.2 | 2 | 1 | 38.5% | 7.4% | 3.79 | 2.38 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 10.5 | 18.9 | 182.2 | 13 | 8 | 31.4% | 8.7% | 3.50 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 57.1 | 85.6 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 33.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 3.8% | 2.18 | 2.11 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 24.0 | 170.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 3.60 | 3.31 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 46.7 | 69.1 |
| 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 48.2 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 2.2% | 2.03 | 2.22 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 21.6 | 34.0 | 174.2 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.8% | 3.50 | 3.56 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 49.0 | 67.2 |
| 8 | Bryan Woo | 44.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 4.6% | 3.25 | 2.90 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 22.4 | 166.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 3.46 | 3.57 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 47.0 | 64.2 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 30.1 | 1 | 1 | 37.6% | 5.1% | 2.37 | 2.18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.6 | 20.4 | 141.1 | 9 | 7 | 29.7% | 5.3% | 3.31 | 3.27 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 44.4 | 63.6 |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.94 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 13.1 | 181.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 3.78 | 3.74 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 42.4 | 57.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 40.2 | 3 | 2 | 30.0% | 3.1% | 2.21 | 2.47 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 18.1 | 27.3 | 184.2 | 13 | 9 | 29.4% | 5.0% | 2.83 | 2.79 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 68.9 | 104.0 |
| 2 | Max Fried | 51.2 | 6 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.3% | 1.05 | 2.91 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 39.6 | 195.2 | 17 | 7 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.85 | 3.47 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 70.9 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | 49.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 2.84 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 31.1 | 195.0 | 14 | 9 | 28.8% | 8.5% | 3.23 | 3.26 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 64.5 | 91.3 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.0% | 6.3% | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 23.4 | 36.2 | 183.0 | 15 | 8 | 27.2% | 7.9% | 3.20 | 3.15 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 61.5 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 35.2 | 2 | 1 | 38.5% | 7.4% | 3.79 | 2.38 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 10.5 | 18.9 | 182.2 | 13 | 8 | 31.4% | 8.7% | 3.50 | 3.10 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 57.1 | 85.6 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 33.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 3.8% | 2.18 | 2.11 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 24.0 | 170.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 3.60 | 3.31 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 46.7 | 69.1 |
| 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 48.2 | 3 | 2 | 28.5% | 2.2% | 2.03 | 2.22 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 21.6 | 34.0 | 174.2 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.8% | 3.50 | 3.56 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 49.0 | 67.2 |
| 8 | Bryan Woo | 44.1 | 4 | 1 | 25.3% | 4.6% | 3.25 | 2.90 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 22.4 | 166.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 3.46 | 3.57 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 47.0 | 64.2 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 30.1 | 1 | 1 | 37.6% | 5.1% | 2.37 | 2.18 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.6 | 20.4 | 141.1 | 9 | 7 | 29.7% | 5.3% | 3.31 | 3.27 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 44.4 | 63.6 |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.94 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 13.1 | 181.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 3.78 | 3.74 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 42.4 | 57.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Logan Webb | 48.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 1.86 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 19.8 | 33.9 | 203.1 | 15 | 9 | 22.5% | 5.6% | 3.28 | 2.85 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 61.5 | 98.7 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 48.2 | 3 | 4 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 2.77 | 3.04 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 17.0 | 24.9 | 196.2 | 13 | 11 | 26.2% | 6.9% | 3.16 | 3.12 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 63.1 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 51.0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 205.0 | 14 | 8 | 29.0% | 6.2% | 3.42 | 3.35 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 62.4 | 88.7 |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 45.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.3% | 8.0% | 1.80 | 2.91 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 22.8 | 30.8 | 163.0 | 13 | 8 | 27.2% | 7.0% | 2.98 | 3.11 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 58.4 | 83.7 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 42.0 | 1 | 3 | 30.3% | 5.9% | 4.07 | 3.06 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 15.3 | 190.0 | 12 | 9 | 30.0% | 6.7% | 3.69 | 3.11 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 82.2 |
| 6 | Michael King | 44.2 | 4 | 1 | 27.0% | 7.9% | 2.22 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 26.6 | 185.2 | 14 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 3.39 | 3.64 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 56.6 | 74.5 |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | 45.1 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 3.48 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 20.5 | 25.6 | 187.1 | 13 | 10 | 26.6% | 8.6% | 3.41 | 3.89 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 56.1 | 68.7 |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | 45.2 | 4 | 2 | 34.7% | 4.5% | 2.36 | 3.08 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 20.9 | 28.1 | 181.2 | 13 | 9 | 30.2% | 7.7% | 3.67 | 3.80 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 52.3 | 66.5 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 46.0 | 2 | 3 | 36.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 2.76 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 23.7 | 194.0 | 11 | 12 | 29.3% | 8.4% | 3.99 | 3.60 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 45.9 | 65.2 |
| 10 | Jesús Luzardo | 47.0 | 3 | 0 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 2.11 | 2.32 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 20.6 | 32.0 | 153.0 | 11 | 7 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 3.47 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 44.8 | 63.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Logan Webb | 48.1 | 4 | 2 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 1.86 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 19.8 | 33.9 | 203.1 | 15 | 9 | 22.5% | 5.6% | 3.28 | 2.85 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 61.5 | 98.7 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 48.2 | 3 | 4 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 2.77 | 3.04 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 17.0 | 24.9 | 196.2 | 13 | 11 | 26.2% | 6.9% | 3.16 | 3.12 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 63.1 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 51.0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.5% | 3.35 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 205.0 | 14 | 8 | 29.0% | 6.2% | 3.42 | 3.35 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 62.4 | 88.7 |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 45.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.3% | 8.0% | 1.80 | 2.91 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 22.8 | 30.8 | 163.0 | 13 | 8 | 27.2% | 7.0% | 2.98 | 3.11 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 58.4 | 83.7 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 42.0 | 1 | 3 | 30.3% | 5.9% | 4.07 | 3.06 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 15.3 | 190.0 | 12 | 9 | 30.0% | 6.7% | 3.69 | 3.11 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 82.2 |
| 6 | Michael King | 44.2 | 4 | 1 | 27.0% | 7.9% | 2.22 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 26.6 | 185.2 | 14 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 3.39 | 3.64 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 56.6 | 74.5 |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | 45.1 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 3.48 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 20.5 | 25.6 | 187.1 | 13 | 10 | 26.6% | 8.6% | 3.41 | 3.89 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 56.1 | 68.7 |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | 45.2 | 4 | 2 | 34.7% | 4.5% | 2.36 | 3.08 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 20.9 | 28.1 | 181.2 | 13 | 9 | 30.2% | 7.7% | 3.67 | 3.80 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 52.3 | 66.5 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 46.0 | 2 | 3 | 36.4% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 2.76 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 23.7 | 194.0 | 11 | 12 | 29.3% | 8.4% | 3.99 | 3.60 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 45.9 | 65.2 |
| 10 | Jesús Luzardo | 47.0 | 3 | 0 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 2.11 | 2.32 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 20.6 | 32.0 | 153.0 | 11 | 7 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 3.47 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 44.8 | 63.6 |
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