Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	189.2	15	8	29.3%	4.2%	2.66	2.52	6.2	5.6	75.9	117.7
2	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	194.2	17	6	22.2%	6.4%	2.73	3.29	4.3	5.1	73.0	99.2
3	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	162.0	13	6	29.9%	9.0%	2.72	2.73	4.7	4.7	65.0	96.9
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	172.0	15	7	26.4%	7.7%	3.03	3.09	4.5	4.2	61.5	88.5
5	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	167.0	13	10	26.3%	5.5%	3.45	3.17	4.0	2.8	50.6	75.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	177.2	11	9	24.7%	4.7%	3.44	3.31	3.8	3.3	49.5	73.1
7	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	165.2	10	7	30.2%	8.3%	3.64	3.17	4.0	2.9	46.8	71.4
8	Kris Bubic	48.0	4	2	24.2%	7.2%	1.69	2.69	1.4	2.0	23.7	33.4	147.0	10	7	23.7%	7.8%	3.12	3.25	3.0	3.3	47.1	67.4
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	139.1	8	5	28.6%	5.7%	3.10	3.12	3.1	2.9	45.7	67.1
10	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	189.0	13	11	22.3%	8.4%	3.57	3.81	2.9	3.3	50.0	64.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	40.2	3	2	30.0%	3.1%	2.21	2.47	1.3	1.5	18.1	27.3	189.2	15	8	29.3%	4.2%	2.66	2.52	6.2	5.6	75.9	117.7
2	Max Fried	51.2	6	0	22.6%	5.3%	1.05	2.91	1.3	2.2	30.5	39.6	194.2	17	6	22.2%	6.4%	2.73	3.29	4.3	5.1	73.0	99.2
3	Garrett Crochet	49.0	3	2	28.6%	10.2%	2.02	2.84	1.3	1.7	22.1	31.1	162.0	13	6	29.9%	9.0%	2.72	2.73	4.7	4.7	65.0	96.9
4	Hunter Brown	43.0	5	1	31.0%	6.3%	1.67	1.83	1.8	2.0	23.4	36.2	172.0	15	7	26.4%	7.7%	3.03	3.09	4.5	4.2	61.5	88.5
5	Pablo López	33.0	3	2	28.5%	3.8%	2.18	2.11	1.2	0.9	15.2	24.0	167.0	13	10	26.3%	5.5%	3.45	3.17	4.0	2.8	50.6	75.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	48.2	3	2	28.5%	2.2%	2.03	2.22	1.6	1.7	21.6	34.0	177.2	11	9	24.7%	4.7%	3.44	3.31	3.8	3.3	49.5	73.1
7	Cole Ragans	35.2	2	1	38.5%	7.4%	3.79	2.38	1.2	0.6	10.5	18.9	165.2	10	7	30.2%	8.3%	3.64	3.17	4.0	2.9	46.8	71.4
8	Kris Bubic	48.0	4	2	24.2%	7.2%	1.69	2.69	1.4	2.0	23.7	33.4	147.0	10	7	23.7%	7.8%	3.12	3.25	3.0	3.3	47.1	67.4
9	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.18	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.4	139.1	8	5	28.6%	5.7%	3.10	3.12	3.1	2.9	45.7	67.1
10	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	189.0	13	11	22.3%	8.4%	3.57	3.81	2.9	3.3	50.0	64.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	200.1	16	8	23.5%	5.7%	2.97	2.71	5.4	5.3	69.4	109.2
2	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	207.0	13	7	28.3%	5.8%	3.35	3.27	5.0	4.7	63.1	91.4
3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	170.0	14	8	27.6%	6.4%	3.02	3.11	4.1	4.2	60.6	86.9
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	177.0	11	8	29.9%	6.3%	3.36	3.07	4.2	4.0	55.7	83.8
5	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	180.2	14	7	26.3%	8.4%	3.09	3.46	3.9	4.4	62.0	82.9
6	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	167.2	16	8	22.2%	7.7%	3.33	2.94	4.1	3.2	53.7	82.8
7	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	172.2	11	9	27.0%	6.7%	3.18	3.14	4.1	4.3	55.2	81.3
8	Kodai Senga	38.2	4	2	23.0%	11.2%	1.16	3.03	0.9	1.9	21.8	28.2	158.2	13	8	24.4%	10.6%	2.89	3.52	3.0	4.1	57.4	74.7
9	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	171.2	11	8	30.5%	7.0%	3.36	3.51	4.1	4.3	53.6	72.5
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	14	8	28.5%	7.5%	3.37	3.60	3.2	3.4	54.6	71.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Logan Webb	48.1	4	2	28.7%	6.7%	2.61	1.86	1.8	1.5	19.8	33.9	200.1	16	8	23.5%	5.7%	2.97	2.71	5.4	5.3	69.4	109.2
2	Zack Wheeler	51.0	3	1	33.3%	4.5%	3.35	3.20	1.2	1.4	16.1	23.4	207.0	13	7	28.3%	5.8%	3.35	3.27	5.0	4.7	63.1	91.4
3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	45.0	4	3	30.3%	8.0%	1.80	2.91	1.2	1.7	22.8	30.8	170.0	14	8	27.6%	6.4%	3.02	3.11	4.1	4.2	60.6	86.9
4	Chris Sale	42.0	1	3	30.3%	5.9%	4.07	3.06	1.0	0.6	8.6	15.3	177.0	11	8	29.9%	6.3%	3.36	3.07	4.2	4.0	55.7	83.8
5	Michael King	44.2	4	1	27.0%	7.9%	2.22	3.20	1.2	1.7	20.1	26.6	180.2	14	7	26.3%	8.4%	3.09	3.46	3.9	4.4	62.0	82.9
6	Clay Holmes	36.2	4	1	25.0%	8.3%	2.95	2.21	1.3	0.8	14.2	23.6	167.2	16	8	22.2%	7.7%	3.33	2.94	4.1	3.2	53.7	82.8
7	Paul Skenes	48.2	3	4	24.7%	6.3%	2.77	3.04	1.2	1.4	17.0	24.9	172.2	11	9	27.0%	6.7%	3.18	3.14	4.1	4.3	55.2	81.3
8	Kodai Senga	38.2	4	2	23.0%	11.2%	1.16	3.03	0.9	1.9	21.8	28.2	158.2	13	8	24.4%	10.6%	2.89	3.52	3.0	4.1	57.4	74.7
9	Hunter Greene	45.2	4	2	34.7%	4.5%	2.36	3.08	1.3	1.9	20.9	28.1	171.2	11	8	30.5%	7.0%	3.36	3.51	4.1	4.3	53.6	72.5
10	Nick Pivetta	40.1	5	1	28.4%	7.7%	2.01	2.78	1.2	1.6	20.6	28.3	168.1	14	8	28.5%	7.5%	3.37	3.60	3.2	3.4	54.6	71.4

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG