Cy Young Award Projections


About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

  • Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
  • FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal110.010330.5%4.6%2.372.543.43.849.273.1183.015729.7%5.1%2.662.705.35.674.1110.7
2Garrett Crochet105.06634.8%5.5%3.082.433.83.037.161.4166.011933.7%6.4%3.032.625.34.660.595.3
3Corbin Burnes118.19423.3%5.3%2.443.372.63.847.161.9202.114824.2%5.9%2.893.384.25.369.995.0
4Tanner Houck117.08623.5%5.5%2.542.683.43.244.768.3185.0131023.2%6.1%3.063.064.64.360.389.9
5Seth Lugo122.011322.5%5.9%2.213.292.75.053.069.4194.015721.9%6.2%2.883.553.86.167.488.0
6George Kirby111.17624.3%2.5%3.402.873.02.431.551.6190.1121023.8%2.9%3.413.054.73.953.484.0
7Logan Gilbert125.06524.1%5.2%2.953.542.23.539.052.4206.011923.9%5.4%3.193.573.64.860.381.6
8Cole Ragans109.15629.7%8.2%3.302.743.13.033.054.4179.191028.3%8.6%3.423.044.54.551.780.7
9Joe Ryan109.06527.2%3.7%3.303.462.52.332.344.9185.011927.0%4.4%3.503.493.93.551.672.5
10Luis Castillo117.08924.2%7.1%3.543.782.02.232.141.6197.0131324.5%7.0%3.523.693.43.554.372.1
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Tarik Skubal110.010330.5%4.6%2.372.543.43.849.273.1183.015729.7%5.1%2.662.705.35.674.1110.7
2Garrett Crochet105.06634.8%5.5%3.082.433.83.037.161.4166.011933.7%6.4%3.032.625.34.660.595.3
3Corbin Burnes118.19423.3%5.3%2.443.372.63.847.161.9202.114824.2%5.9%2.893.384.25.369.995.0
4Tanner Houck117.08623.5%5.5%2.542.683.43.244.768.3185.0131023.2%6.1%3.063.064.64.360.389.9
5Seth Lugo122.011322.5%5.9%2.213.292.75.053.069.4194.015721.9%6.2%2.883.553.86.167.488.0
6George Kirby111.17624.3%2.5%3.402.873.02.431.551.6190.1121023.8%2.9%3.413.054.73.953.484.0
7Logan Gilbert125.06524.1%5.2%2.953.542.23.539.052.4206.011923.9%5.4%3.193.573.64.860.381.6
8Cole Ragans109.15629.7%8.2%3.302.743.13.033.054.4179.191028.3%8.6%3.423.044.54.551.780.7
9Joe Ryan109.06527.2%3.7%3.303.462.52.332.344.9185.011927.0%4.4%3.503.493.93.551.672.5
10Luis Castillo117.08924.2%7.1%3.543.782.02.232.141.6197.0131324.5%7.0%3.523.693.43.554.372.1
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National League

#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Chris Sale105.012333.0%5.3%2.742.223.53.746.172.7176.018632.2%5.7%2.912.545.25.571.6109.8
2Zack Wheeler116.110427.0%7.5%2.713.322.93.745.761.0199.116826.2%7.2%3.033.324.85.469.895.9
3Logan Webb124.07721.0%5.5%3.482.803.02.531.755.2209.0131121.0%5.3%3.402.924.74.256.693.4
4Tyler Glasnow109.08533.6%6.8%3.472.783.02.434.855.7176.013832.9%7.0%3.382.904.64.057.989.2
5Ranger Suárez108.010324.7%5.3%2.583.072.73.443.660.8183.015723.2%6.2%3.003.374.04.962.885.7
6Sonny Gray92.19531.1%6.5%3.322.652.61.532.651.6168.114928.0%6.9%3.323.054.03.155.382.4
7Reynaldo López89.17225.8%9.4%1.723.102.14.243.957.8152.112525.6%9.2%2.603.333.05.160.280.0
8Cristopher Sánchez103.07420.6%6.6%2.972.553.22.633.255.6173.011720.7%6.9%3.223.024.33.850.378.8
9Paul Skenes66.06034.9%5.1%1.912.582.03.133.948.1132.010331.4%6.1%2.662.893.64.653.577.2
10Max Fried108.07521.5%7.7%3.083.551.82.933.544.9186.013821.8%7.3%3.243.503.14.555.876.5
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
Season StatsProjected Stats
#NameIPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
IPWLK%BB%ERAFIPWARRA9-
WAR
CYPFIP
CYP
1Chris Sale105.012333.0%5.3%2.742.223.53.746.172.7176.018632.2%5.7%2.912.545.25.571.6109.8
2Zack Wheeler116.110427.0%7.5%2.713.322.93.745.761.0199.116826.2%7.2%3.033.324.85.469.895.9
3Logan Webb124.07721.0%5.5%3.482.803.02.531.755.2209.0131121.0%5.3%3.402.924.74.256.693.4
4Tyler Glasnow109.08533.6%6.8%3.472.783.02.434.855.7176.013832.9%7.0%3.382.904.64.057.989.2
5Ranger Suárez108.010324.7%5.3%2.583.072.73.443.660.8183.015723.2%6.2%3.003.374.04.962.885.7
6Sonny Gray92.19531.1%6.5%3.322.652.61.532.651.6168.114928.0%6.9%3.323.054.03.155.382.4
7Reynaldo López89.17225.8%9.4%1.723.102.14.243.957.8152.112525.6%9.2%2.603.333.05.160.280.0
8Cristopher Sánchez103.07420.6%6.6%2.972.553.22.633.255.6173.011720.7%6.9%3.223.024.33.850.378.8
9Paul Skenes66.06034.9%5.1%1.912.582.03.133.948.1132.010331.4%6.1%2.662.893.64.653.577.2
10Max Fried108.07521.5%7.7%3.083.551.82.933.544.9186.013821.8%7.3%3.243.503.14.555.876.5
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