Service time is updated through 2025. Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors, which uses a model created by Matt Swartz.
Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players
$16,800,000
Other Payments▼
Description
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Estimated Payroll
$109,816,667
$37,116,667
$37,116,667
$37,116,667
Description
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Estimated Payroll
$109,816,667
$37,116,667
$37,116,667
$37,116,667
Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and earned buyout escalators — but not option total or earned option escalator — for pending options
Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate▼
Description
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)
$56,541,667
$35,541,667
$35,541,667
$35,541,667
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration
$34,900,000
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts)
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts
$16,800,000
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid
$18,500,000
$19,000,000
$19,500,000
$20,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll
$130,908,334
$58,708,334
$59,208,334
$59,708,334
Description
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)
$56,541,667
$35,541,667
$35,541,667
$35,541,667
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration
$34,900,000
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts)
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts
$16,800,000
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid
$18,500,000
$19,000,000
$19,500,000
$20,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll
$130,908,334
$58,708,334
$59,208,334
$59,708,334
Totals for estimated luxury tax payrolls include potential buyouts and earned buyout escalators — but not option total or earned option escalators — for pending options
LUXURY TAX EXPLANATION AND OTHER PAYROLL NOTES
With the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring on December 1, 2026, it is currently unclear if the luxury tax will remain in place for 2027 and beyond, or if it will be replaced by another mechanism. However, we are currently operating under the assumption that the calculation for team payrolls will remain the same.
The average annual value (AAV) of guaranteed contracts is included, not what the player is actually being paid that year. The AAV of contracts with deferrals is lower due to the payout structure and is based on the inflation rate stated in the contract, but unless the exact AAV as calculated by the league is publicly reported, the AAV is calculated as it would be without deferrals.
Other payments, such as money to and from other teams, are included. Buyouts of contract options are included in the initial AAV. If a contract option is exercised, the team is credited the value of the buyout on their CBT calculation for the option year.
Players no longer on the 40-man roster are included in all cases, regardless of whether they were optioned or released.
Salaries for all players on the 40-man roster, even salaries earned while in the minor leagues, are included.
Player benefits include health insurance, transportation, meal money, and other non-salary payments for all 40-man roster players. A new CBA may increase our estimated benefits for 2027 and beyond; we are currently increasing them by $500k over 2026, as we have each prior season.
The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring IL time, each team will need to pay for at least 34 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 34 (the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.
The league minimum salary for 2027 has not yet been determined; we are currently operating under the assumption that it will be $800k, but the new CBA may have a higher number.
For a player acquired during the current season, the AAV factored into the luxury tax is based on the amount of time left in the current season at the time of acquisition. AAVs for contracts with multiple years remaining are recalculated; the AAV calculation for the new team is based on the remaining money to be paid (less signing bonuses, always paid by the original first team) divided by the remaining years. If the original team ends up effectively paying less AAV than the original contract called for, they will be credited the difference, prorated over the remaining years of the contract.
