2013 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
Jeff Francoeur remains better at baseball than almost everyone — but likely not as good as an average major-leaguer. It will probably not shock Royals fans that Francoeur — who GM Dayton Moore suggested in December will remain the team’s starting right fielder even after posting a -1.2 WAR in 2012 — is projected to be the weakest link among Kansas City’s field players.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella’s profile — according to ZiPS — remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

Pitchers
It’s not that the additions of Wade Davis and James Shields won’t help the Royals: they will. It’s to what degree they’ll help — especially considering the cost (i.e. Wil Myers). While ZiPS projects the Toronto Blue Jays’ renovated starting rotation (featured yesterday) to produce about 10 more wins than in 2012, Kansas City’s starting rotation is forecast to post a collective mark only about one or two wins better than last year’s version (which recorded a 7.6 WAR, all told, it appears).

Meanwhile, the bullpen is not this team’s problem. Even with the departure via trade last midseason of a resurgent and effective Jonathan Broxton, the Royals still have a legitimate relief ace in Greg Holland and three other pitchers (Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, and Kelvin Herrera) well suited to high-leverage work. Nor does that even consider what gains Luke Hochevar might make on a per-inning basis if he fails to secure a rotation spot.

Bench/Prospects
Jarrod Dyson appears likely to occupy a reserve role to begin the season, although his projected line suggests that — owing largely to his defense and baserunning — that he might actually represent an improvement over Francoeur. Miguel Tejada recently signed what will ultimately become a $1.1 million deal; meanwhile, it’s very possible that he’ll play like freely available talent. Right-hander Felipe Paulino signed one-year, $1.75 million deal with the Royals this offseason to avoid arbitration. He’s expected to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason, and could be valuable either as part of the rotation or in the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Billy Butler	R	27	DH	661	72	174	36	1	23	92	2	1
Alex Gordon	L	29	LF	655	86	155	38	3	17	67	11	6
Salvador Perez	R	23	C	473	51	128	23	1	12	56	0	0
Mike Moustakas	L	24	3B	649	71	156	37	2	20	81	5	2
Alcides Escobar	R	26	SS	624	70	156	24	8	5	48	28	6
Eric Hosmer	L	23	1B	645	77	159	28	3	20	79	15	3
Johnny Giavotella	R	25	2B	677	77	166	31	4	8	65	11	4
Lorenzo Cain	R	27	CF	471	49	112	19	4	9	46	15	3
Jarrod Dyson	L	28	CF	423	53	93	13	5	1	23	35	6
Jeff Francoeur	R	29	RF	609	64	147	32	3	16	66	10	7
Irving Falu	B	30	3B	513	55	124	17	4	3	41	14	7
Tony Abreu	B	28	SS	499	47	117	24	4	6	53	6	4
Brett Hayes	R	29	C	191	19	41	10	0	4	15	1	0
David Lough	L	27	RF	606	66	140	22	8	9	53	16	5
Adam Moore	R	29	C	235	23	52	11	0	4	16	1	0
Chris Getz	L	29	2B	334	37	78	11	3	0	24	15	4
Cody Clark	R	31	C	233	20	46	10	0	3	17	0	0
Luis Durango	B	27	CF	542	61	123	9	4	0	32	32	14
Cheslor Cuthbert	R	20	3B	519	50	110	19	0	10	54	4	3
Miguel Tejada	R	39	3B	209	18	49	9	0	2	16	2	2
Anthony Seratelli	B	30	3B	460	48	93	11	3	7	40	14	5
Brandon Wood	R	28	3B	382	34	75	16	1	8	34	1	0
Endy Chavez	L	35	RF	229	20	53	9	1	2	15	6	2
Xavier Nady	R	34	LF	254	23	52	10	0	5	24	1	0
Willy Taveras	R	31	CF	318	30	68	9	2	3	18	10	3
Ian Gac	R	27	1B	471	45	93	24	1	12	50	1	1
Mario Lisson	R	29	1B	439	41	82	21	0	8	37	12	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Billy Butler	661	9.1%	15.1%	.181	.319	.295	.362	.476	.354
Alex Gordon	655	10.5%	20.3%	.165	.322	.269	.352	.434	.341
Salvador Perez	473	3.8%	10.6%	.136	.298	.286	.316	.422	.317
Mike Moustakas	649	6.0%	17.7%	.169	.291	.261	.310	.430	.316
Alcides Escobar	624	4.6%	13.8%	.095	.310	.271	.312	.366	.295
Eric Hosmer	645	8.7%	14.9%	.162	.295	.273	.336	.435	.333
Johnny Giavotella	677	6.4%	13.4%	.102	.299	.266	.316	.368	.300
Lorenzo Cain	471	5.9%	22.3%	.124	.320	.259	.311	.383	.308
Jarrod Dyson	423	7.1%	17.5%	.068	.299	.244	.301	.312	.279
Jeff Francoeur	609	5.3%	18.1%	.152	.295	.261	.305	.413	.303
Irving Falu	513	5.3%	10.5%	.072	.288	.261	.300	.333	.273
Tony Abreu	499	3.2%	19.6%	.106	.298	.248	.276	.354	.271
Brett Hayes	191	4.7%	27.7%	.123	.301	.229	.268	.352	.264
David Lough	606	4.3%	13.9%	.117	.279	.252	.290	.369	.280
Adam Moore	235	5.1%	20.0%	.105	.284	.239	.282	.344	.272
Chris Getz	334	6.3%	10.2%	.057	.290	.259	.310	.316	.277
Cody Clark	233	5.2%	18.0%	.091	.257	.219	.265	.310	.247
Luis Durango	542	7.7%	17.7%	.035	.315	.254	.313	.289	.267
Cheslor Cuthbert	519	5.6%	20.4%	.101	.268	.226	.270	.327	.263
Miguel Tejada	209	3.8%	11.0%	.077	.272	.251	.284	.328	.256
Anthony Seratelli	460	7.8%	25.0%	.091	.290	.223	.288	.314	.269
Brandon Wood	382	5.2%	28.3%	.118	.277	.211	.255	.329	.252
Endy Chavez	229	3.9%	11.4%	.080	.273	.249	.280	.329	.265
Xavier Nady	254	5.5%	24.4%	.107	.278	.222	.276	.329	.266
Willy Taveras	318	3.5%	15.7%	.074	.263	.228	.259	.302	.246
Ian Gac	471	6.2%	34.6%	.142	.308	.214	.268	.356	.272
Mario Lisson	439	6.2%	27.3%	.113	.269	.204	.262	.317	.257

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Billy Butler	661	6.6	129	0	3.8	Mike Sweeney
Alex Gordon	655	5.6	115	7	3.6	Rusty Greer
Salvador Perez	473	5.0	101	6	3.2	Bengie Molina
Mike Moustakas	649	4.9	101	1	3.2	Aramis Ramirez
Alcides Escobar	624	4.5	86	0	2.6	Cristian Guzman
Eric Hosmer	645	5.6	111	-5	2.0	Tino Martinez
Johnny Giavotella	677	4.3	88	-3	1.7	Todd Haney
Lorenzo Cain	471	4.6	90	-3	1.6	Reggie Williams
Jarrod Dyson	423	4.0	70	3	1.2	McKay Christensen
Jeff Francoeur	609	4.5	96	-4	1.0	Wes Chamberlain
Irving Falu	513	3.6	74	-3	0.8	Tom Runnells
Tony Abreu	499	3.5	72	-1	0.7	Garry Templeton
Brett Hayes	191	3.4	69	2	0.6	Joel Skinner
David Lough	606	4.0	80	2	0.5	Tike Redman
Adam Moore	235	3.5	72	-2	0.4	Brandon Marsters
Chris Getz	334	3.8	73	-4	0.4	Bernie Castro
Cody Clark	233	2.8	58	-1	0.1	Charlie Greene
Luis Durango	542	3.4	68	-2	-0.1	Joey Gathright
Cheslor Cuthbert	519	3.0	64	-1	-0.1	Javier Colina
Miguel Tejada	209	3.3	68	-1	-0.1	Pete Suder
Anthony Seratelli	460	3.3	66	-5	-0.1	Leonard Hannahan
Brandon Wood	382	2.9	60	-1	-0.1	Nate Manning
Endy Chavez	229	3.4	67	0	-0.2	Joe Orsulak
Xavier Nady	254	3.2	66	0	-0.3	Chad Moeller
Willy Taveras	318	2.9	54	-1	-0.4	Manny Martinez
Ian Gac	471	3.3	70	-1	-0.7	John Santor
Mario Lisson	439	2.9	59	-1	-1.0	Mike Rosamond

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
James Shields	R	31	31	31	208.0	183	53	28	211	102	95
Jeremy Guthrie	R	34	28	26	163.7	102	45	24	177	86	80
Wade Davis	R	27	25	25	153.3	119	56	20	155	79	74
Greg Holland	R	27	66	0	73.0	92	32	6	60	28	26
Felipe Paulino	R	29	15	15	88.7	83	36	10	91	47	44
Will Smith	L	23	28	28	163.7	93	56	21	185	96	90
Kelvin Herrera	R	23	66	0	77.3	70	21	8	75	34	32
Aaron Crow	R	26	69	0	64.0	66	25	7	59	29	27
Tim Collins	L	23	72	0	69.3	89	38	8	57	31	29
Louis Coleman	R	27	51	1	71.7	78	33	11	62	34	32
Ervin Santana	R	30	29	29	178.3	132	62	32	189	107	100
Luke Hochevar	R	29	26	26	156.7	113	51	22	169	94	88
Danny Duffy	L	24	16	16	81.0	71	36	12	83	46	43
Bruce Chen	L	36	27	25	141.3	98	43	23	155	85	79
Luis Mendoza	R	29	28	20	134.3	70	50	16	154	80	75
Everett Teaford	L	29	30	10	83.3	55	32	13	91	50	47
Francisley Bueno	L	32	49	0	63.0	37	22	7	66	34	32
Guillermo Moscoso	R	29	32	22	135.3	91	50	24	152	86	80
Donnie Joseph	L	25	57	0	62.0	54	36	7	63	35	33
Nathan Adcock	R	25	28	16	107.3	54	42	12	130	68	64
John Lamb	L	22	8	8	25.0	14	11	4	30	17	16
Dan Wheeler	R	35	47	0	45.7	30	17	7	49	27	25
Brian Sanches	R	34	42	1	53.7	35	21	9	59	32	30
Doug Davis	L	37	15	14	78.0	46	37	10	90	51	48
Yordano Ventura	R	22	23	23	97.3	72	50	18	107	65	61
Juan Gutierrez	R	29	29	0	30.0	22	12	6	34	20	19
Roman Colon	R	33	29	0	41.3	24	21	6	46	27	25
Michael Mariot	R	24	30	12	99.0	49	41	17	116	67	63
Jose Jimenez	L	26	48	0	59.3	35	34	9	70	43	40
Atahualpa Severino	L	28	47	0	44.0	31	35	7	52	34	32
Ryan Verdugo	L	26	30	19	101.0	72	73	19	111	75	70
Jason Adam	R	21	24	24	121.0	63	41	28	145	89	83
Chris Volstad	R	26	30	30	165.3	89	55	27	215	119	111
Noel Arguelles	L	23	23	23	99.3	38	70	17	122	80	75
Chris Dwyer	L	25	25	25	120.0	70	91	26	140	100	93

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
James Shields	208.0	888	20.6%	6.0%	.297	4.11	3.92	99	95
Jeremy Guthrie	163.7	713	14.3%	6.3%	.287	4.40	4.73	107	114
Wade Davis	153.3	671	17.7%	8.3%	.288	4.34	4.45	105	108
Greg Holland	73.0	311	29.6%	10.3%	.300	3.21	2.75	78	67
Felipe Paulino	88.7	393	21.1%	9.2%	.311	4.47	3.97	108	96
Will Smith	163.7	732	12.7%	7.6%	.295	4.95	4.76	120	115
Kelvin Herrera	77.3	328	21.3%	6.4%	.297	3.72	3.41	90	82
Aaron Crow	64.0	276	23.9%	9.1%	.294	3.80	3.58	92	87
Tim Collins	69.3	303	29.4%	12.5%	.295	3.76	3.50	91	85
Louis Coleman	71.7	310	25.2%	10.6%	.276	4.02	4.25	97	103
Ervin Santana	178.3	786	16.8%	7.9%	.285	5.05	5.11	122	124
Luke Hochevar	156.7	690	16.4%	7.4%	.296	5.06	4.55	122	110
Danny Duffy	81.0	362	19.6%	9.9%	.296	4.78	4.68	116	113
Bruce Chen	141.3	622	15.8%	6.9%	.291	5.03	4.80	122	116
Luis Mendoza	134.3	607	11.5%	8.2%	.298	5.02	4.85	122	117
Everett Teaford	83.3	373	14.7%	8.6%	.290	5.08	5.06	123	123
Francisley Bueno	63.0	277	13.4%	7.9%	.285	4.57	4.51	111	109
Guillermo Moscoso	135.3	608	15.0%	8.2%	.293	5.32	5.28	129	128
Donnie Joseph	62.0	285	18.9%	12.6%	.304	4.79	4.61	116	112
Nathan Adcock	107.3	494	10.9%	8.5%	.311	5.37	4.80	130	116
John Lamb	25.0	116	12.1%	9.5%	.306	5.76	5.62	139	136
Dan Wheeler	45.7	203	14.8%	8.4%	.284	4.93	4.82	119	117
Brian Sanches	53.7	241	14.5%	8.7%	.287	5.03	5.14	122	125
Doug Davis	78.0	361	12.7%	10.2%	.304	5.54	5.20	134	126
Yordano Ventura	97.3	449	16.0%	11.1%	.295	5.64	5.78	137	140
Juan Gutierrez	30.0	136	16.2%	8.8%	.298	5.70	5.53	138	134
Roman Colon	41.3	191	12.6%	11.0%	.292	5.44	5.42	132	131
Michael Mariot	99.0	454	10.8%	9.0%	.291	5.73	5.76	139	139
Jose Jimenez	59.3	282	12.4%	12.1%	.305	6.07	5.76	147	139
Atahualpa Severino	44.0	219	14.2%	16.0%	.315	6.55	6.21	159	150
Ryan Verdugo	101.0	487	14.8%	15.0%	.290	6.24	6.43	151	156
Jason Adam	121.0	549	11.5%	7.5%	.286	6.17	6.28	149	152
Chris Volstad	165.3	766	11.6%	7.2%	.319	6.04	5.16	146	125
Noel Arguelles	99.3	490	7.8%	14.3%	.294	6.80	6.91	165	167
Chris Dwyer	120.0	591	11.8%	15.4%	.288	6.98	7.22	169	175

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
James Shields	208.0	7.92	2.29	1.21	100	3.2	Javier Vazquez
Jeremy Guthrie	163.7	5.61	2.47	1.32	93	1.9	Jay Witasick
Wade Davis	153.3	6.99	3.29	1.17	95	1.9	Bob Walk
Greg Holland	73.0	11.34	3.95	0.74	128	1.2	Jim Kern
Felipe Paulino	88.7	8.42	3.65	1.01	92	0.9	Luke Hudson
Will Smith	163.7	5.11	3.08	1.15	83	0.8	Mike Jeffcoat
Kelvin Herrera	77.3	8.15	2.45	0.93	110	0.8	Chris Britton
Aaron Crow	64.0	9.28	3.52	0.98	108	0.7	Trevor Hoffman
Tim Collins	69.3	11.56	4.94	1.04	109	0.7	Mitch Williams
Louis Coleman	71.7	9.79	4.14	1.38	102	0.7	Brad Lidge
Ervin Santana	178.3	6.66	3.13	1.62	81	0.6	Richard Dotson
Luke Hochevar	156.7	6.49	2.93	1.26	81	0.6	Richard Dotson
Danny Duffy	81.0	7.89	4.00	1.33	86	0.6	Carlos Hernandez
Bruce Chen	141.3	6.24	2.74	1.46	82	0.6	Paul Splittorff
Luis Mendoza	134.3	4.69	3.35	1.07	82	0.5	Julian Tavarez
Everett Teaford	83.3	5.94	3.46	1.40	81	0.1	Dennis Powell
Francisley Bueno	63.0	5.29	3.14	1.00	90	0.1	Chad Zerbe
Guillermo Moscoso	135.3	6.05	3.33	1.60	77	0.0	Chad Durbin
Donnie Joseph	62.0	7.84	5.23	1.02	86	-0.1	Scott Wiggins
Nathan Adcock	107.3	4.53	3.52	1.01	77	-0.1	Mark Cahill
John Lamb	25.0	5.04	3.96	1.44	71	-0.1	Craig Swan
Dan Wheeler	45.7	5.91	3.35	1.38	83	-0.1	Terry Mathews
Brian Sanches	53.7	5.87	3.52	1.51	82	-0.2	Terry Mathews
Doug Davis	78.0	5.31	4.27	1.15	74	-0.2	Mark Langston
Yordano Ventura	97.3	6.66	4.62	1.66	73	-0.3	Oscar Munoz
Juan Gutierrez	30.0	6.60	3.60	1.80	72	-0.4	Julio Manon
Roman Colon	41.3	5.23	4.58	1.31	75	-0.4	Paphlagonian Liver
Michael Mariot	99.0	4.45	3.73	1.55	72	-0.6	Kevin Ryan
Jose Jimenez	59.3	5.31	5.16	1.37	68	-1.0	Jason Hill
Atahualpa Severino	44.0	6.34	7.16	1.43	63	-1.0	Danny Young
Ryan Verdugo	101.0	6.42	6.50	1.69	66	-1.1	Terry Wells
Jason Adam	121.0	4.69	3.05	2.08	67	-1.2	Aaron Laffey
Chris Volstad	165.3	4.85	2.99	1.47	68	-1.4	Brian Powell
Noel Arguelles	99.3	3.44	6.34	1.54	60	-1.7	Sebern Wright
Chris Dwyer	120.0	5.25	6.83	1.95	59	-2.4	Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.