The Royals Without Alex Gordon

On Wednesday night, Alex Gordon strained a groin muscle chasing a fly ball. If you just adjusted in your seat, I don’t blame you — it sounds painful. He’ll be out for eight weeks, which is better news than the team could have received. If the Royals can hold the fort down until then, they just may have him back in time for the stretch run. Of course, injuries don’t always follow a defined timetable, so we’ll see. Still, there’s hope Gordon can come back. That’s better than nothing. The question is, though: how will they absorb his loss?

For now, they are going to roll with Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando. This isn’t a bad plan! As I’ve discussed in the past, Dyson is worthy of a starting position. His defense is still top notch. Here’s a reminder:

Dyson also hits at an average rate against right-handed pitching. He hasn’t played much this year, but his wRC+ versus righties is a healthy 105, and he is even hitting well against lefties, though that is in a ridiculously tiny sample.

Orlando has also displayed good defense in his limited time in the outfield. In case you’re not familiar, here is a recent example:

Orlando hasn’t been the best hitter, his flare for the dramatic notwithstanding. That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. After all, this season was his fourth crack at Triple-A. Being Brazilian, his development curve was necessarily longer, but no matter how much he improves, the 29-year-old is unlikely ever to be a star. In the long run, he may hit lefties better than does Dyson — Orlando’s 91 wRC+ against lefties this season is better than Dyson’s career 55 wRC+ mark. But with Dyson hitting lefties well this year and Orlando not having much of a track record… well, let’s just say the jury is out.

Either way, the pair of outfielders is unlikely to replace Gordon’s production in the batter’s box. Gordon had been hitting like he did in his 2011 breakout campaign. His 138 wRC+ is tops on the team, as is his ISO, OBP and walk rate. The last of these was noted this morning by Buster Olney:

Alex Gordon has accounted for more than 20 percent of the Royals' MLB-low 182 walks this season. http://t.co/EwaIMoo7mt

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 9, 2015

I thought I’d take a look at how this compares to other teams. Here’s what I found, entering Thursday’s action:

Percentage of Team Walks by Team Leader, 2015

#	Team	BB	Team Leader	BB	%
1	Diamondbacks	259	Paul Goldschmidt	68	26.3%
2	Nationals	260	Bryce Harper	63	24.2%
3	Blue Jays	284	Jose Bautista	65	22.9%
4	White Sox	184	Adam LaRoche	40	21.7%
5	Tigers	246	Miguel Cabrera	53	21.5%
6	Royals	182	Alex Gordon	39	21.4%
7	Reds	249	Joey Votto	53	21.3%
8	Pirates	215	Andrew McCutchen	43	20.0%
9	Mets	225	Curtis Granderson	44	19.6%
10	Dodgers	294	Joc Pederson	56	19.0%
11	Indians	297	Carlos Santana	56	18.9%
12	Brewers	204	Adam Lind	38	18.6%
13	Cardinals	252	Matt Carpenter	46	18.3%
14	Orioles	210	Chris Davis	38	18.1%
15	Braves	239	Nick Markakis	43	18.0%
16	Angels	242	Mike Trout	43	17.8%
17	Marlins	196	Giancarlo Stanton	34	17.3%
18	Padres	219	Justin Upton	36	16.4%
19	Astros	264	Chris Carter	43	16.3%
20	Yankees	280	Alex Rodriguez/Mark Teixeira	45	16.1%
21	Cubs	281	Kris Bryant	45	16.0%
22	Twins	209	Joe Mauer/Brian Dozier	33	15.8%
23	Red Sox	273	David Ortiz	42	15.4%
24	Athletics	266	Stephen Vogt	40	15.0%
25	Giants	230	Buster Posey	34	14.8%
26	Rockies	191	Charlie Blackmon	27	14.1%
27	Rays	236	Evan Longoria	33	14.0%
28	Mariners	236	Nelson Cruz	32	13.6%
29	Rangers	246	Prince Fielder	31	12.6%
30	Phillies	195	Cesar Hernandez	24	12.3%

So, Gordon’s percentage of his team’s walks isn’t the highest, but it’s certainly up there. You can make the case that the Royals losing him is about as devastating as it could be for a team’s walk rate than any other team other than LaRoche and the White Sox, simply because those teams don’t walk less frequently than the other teams toward the top of the table. If you want to look at the situation more glass half full, you could say that the effect is somewhat muted by the fact that manager Ned Yost has hit Gordon sixth all season. As a result, Gordon was fifth on the team in plate appearances even though he was tied for second on the team in games started heading into Thursday’s action. Still, the team will feel it.

Another aspect of the team’s game that will look different is its batted-ball profile. Gordon led the team in fly-ball percentage, and was easily last in ground-ball percentage. Orlando and Dyson — especially Dyson — are the exact opposite. In fact, since he broke into the game for real in 2012, Dyson has hit the ball on the ground 58.3% of the time — good for ninth-highest in the majors (minimum 500 PA). At 40.8%, Gordon ranks 296th out of 419 overall. That’s a pretty drastic shift. Will it make a difference? Maybe, maybe not, but the aesthetics will certainly shift.

That is, unless the team seeks outside alternatives. Players like Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez will obviously be bandied about, though acquiring either player would be a flashier acquisition than the team is known for. Moreover, with Gordon not out for the season, such a move is probably overkill. Gerardo Parra will also be mentioned, though his skill set is similar to Dyson’s, so I don’t think that he would provide an upgrade that is worth pursuing. If the Diamondbacks decided that they wanted to make another poor decision, David Peralta would be someone for the Royals to target. So would Jonny Gomes and Marlon Byrd, and both ought to be available. Another player who should be readily available and has done nothing but mash lefties since he came into the league is Darin Ruf.

Ruf doesn’t have a lot of major-league exposure, and if you focus on his total stat line, you probably won’t be blown away. Not great defense, not great baserunning, and while his overall 112 wRC+ looks nice, it’s nothing to write home about. But his splits tell a different story. They may not be super reliable since he has limited major-league experience, but in 224 PA against left-handed pitchers, he has a 143 wRC+, and he’s been even better this year, producing a 188 wRC+. In fact, going back to the start of last season, his 169 wRC+ against lefties ranks 10th overall in the majors among outfielders. As a bonus, he has improved his BB/K against lefties in each passing season. Against righties, Ruf is a non-starter. Or, at least he would be on any team besides the Phillies. He’s hit just .146 against them since the start of last season, and believe it or not has compiled a wRC+ of 13 against them in 87 PA this season, and that is dragggging his stat line way down.

Alex Gordon has been the Royals’ best player for a while now, and while Lorenzo Cain is playing just as well if not better this season, losing Gordon is certainly far from optimal. But the Royals will weather this storm well. In Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando, the team will not suffer a defensive drop-off. Kansas City may struggle to replace Gordon’s offense, and they’ll certainly look a lot more one dimensional without him, but a cheap acquisition like Darin Ruf could help plug the gap.