Bears in Love: Should the Cubs Pursue Panda?

Large black and white bear with light-tower power seeks LTR in middle of playoff-contending lineup. In addition to high AAV contract, needs steady supply of bamboo shoots.

Pablo Sandoval enters the off-season as one of the biggest (in every sense of the word) free-agents in the current class. As a star-quality player at a position largely bereft of talent, Sandoval should and will command a top-dollar contract. The Cubs, with money to spend, playoff ambitions (whether premature or otherwise), and a hole at the hot corner, are a logical fit. Kris Bryant has yet to solidify his defense at the position, and there is no one else in the Cubs’ organization ready to seize the position. Yes, they have Luis Valbuena, but, come on, he’s Luis Valbuena for God’s sake. And Panda is a team marketing department’s wet dream; if giant Panda heads have taken over San Francisco, imagine how many could be sold in the Chicago-Joliet-Naperville metropolitan statistical area. Sandoval is just what the Cubs need to turn playoff dreams into reality in 2015.

Or so Sandoval’s agent would have you believe. That is pretty much the case for the Cubs signing Sandoval, but does it hold up under scrutiny? Let’s take the arguments on at a time.

Is Sandoval a star player at a weak position?

“But where are the third basemen of yesteryear?” Francois Villon might well have asked had he been (a) alive today; (b) able to speak English; and (c) modestly knowledgeable about baseball. Consider this: in 1973 three future Hall-of Fame third basement were active (Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and George Brett), though Brett was just getting his first cup of coffee. Several others (Ron Santo, Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Sal Bando, and Darrell Evans) who at least arguably belong in the Hall also played that year. According to Baseball Reference, third base was the most valuable non-pitching position in the majors in 1973, as measured by Wins Above Average.

In 2014, third base tumbled all the way to … second most valuable non-pitching position, albeit well off the front-runner (center field). The talent at the top may be thinner – only Adrian Beltre appears to be assured of a place in Cooperstown – but there are several intriguing younger players coming into their own at the position, including Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager, and (for now, at least) Manny Machado. This may not be the Golden Age of Third Basemen, but it isn’t exactly the Stone Age either.

Regardless of what one thinks of the current class of third basemen, Sandoval is not at its head. He was 11th on the WAR list for third basemen last season, just .3 ahead of, yes, Luis Valbuena. True, this year was a bit of a down year for the Panda, but on the WAR list for third basemen over the last three years he actually fares worse, falling to 17th. His offense has declined every year since 2011, and while he has been a slightly above average defender, his overall career numbers conceal wild year-to-year swings.

Is Kris Bryant a bad defender?

Let’s get retrostatistical!

Player              Career Fielding Pct at 3B          Career Range at 3B

Mr. X                                  .942                                           2.73

Mr. Y                                  .936                                           2.62

One guy is a minor league hot cornerist known for his glove. The other is Kris Bryant.  Yeah, the traditional fielding stats may not tell us much, but they’re what we have in the minors, and this comparison at least suggests Bryant hasn’t been hideously overmatched at the position. He’s Mr. X, by the way, and his numbers at AAA last year (.966/2.73) actually showed slight improvement over his career marks. (The other guy is Christian Villanueva, by reputation, at least, the best Cubs’ third base glove in the minors.) If the Cubs are seriously thinking of moving Bryant off third, nothing in his playing time shows that. Bryant has played 160 of his 167 career games at third; in the other seven he DH’d.

Is Panda better then Valbuena?

Yes.

Player           Career wRC+         Career vs. R            Career vs. L

Panda                 122                           134                              95

LuValb                88                             89                              88

That said, in 2014 both players had severe platoon splits; they were both good against righties and atrocious against lefties. Against righties Sandoval had a slightly higher OBP, while Valbuena had a higher ISO. The advantage goes to Panda, 136 to 124 in wRC+, But Panda was actually worse against lefties than Valbuena (59 to 75 wRC+). Panda’s collapse against lefties was a BABIP illusion; there is reason to think he will return to his typical middling effectiveness against them next year. A more interesting question is whether Valbuena can maintain his newly found status as a useful platoon player. Scott Strandberg seemed to think so in June, and Valbuena backed that analysis up, finishing the season with just one bad month.

Should signing Panda be a Cubs’ priority?

The Cubs major league payroll is svelte right now, only Houston and Miami pay their major leaguers less. That will change, in part because Wrigley’s rebuild-in-place will provide additional revenue streams, and in part because the Cubs farm system won’t be able to plug all of the numerous holes in the 25-man roster. The Cubs have four ways to spend their increased payroll:

1. To extend the contracts of the young players whose performance warrants it
2. To pay free agent starting pitchers
3. To pay free agent relievers
4. To pay free agent hitters

However one orders these priorities, free agent hitters should probably come last. Hitting is the strength of the Cubs’ system, and while not all their young studs will mature into actual baseball players, many will, and it’s too soon to bring in expensive free agents who would not only eat up payroll space, but also block some of this nutritious farm produce from reaching the store shelves. The Cubs really don’t have this problem on the pitching side, especially with respect to starters – if they’re going to drop big bags of free agent coin, that would seem to be the best place to do it.

Sandoval’s not a bad player, but he’s probably going to get paid like the superstar he’s not. He’d be an upgrade over Valbuena, the current incumbent, but at a hefty price increase, and just when it looks like Valbuena might be getting useful. He’s probably not better than Kris Bryant, unless Bryant has serious defensive woes not visible in his admittedly unenlightening minor league defensive stats.

So Theo probably shouldn’t answer the ad – better to stay home and watch Netflix.  Maybe he can scratch that Giants itch with a little Orange is the New Black.