Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/28 – For Draftstreet

Homers can win you a daily pool. There’s no way around this, as they’re worth, at the minimum, seven DraftStreet points (four for the home run and 1.5 for the run and each RBI). But they’re usually expensive or somewhat unpredictable – Alcides Escobar, for example, has three taters this year but hasn’t got one since April 28. Two of them were in the same week and one was off Justin Masterson, who hardly allows home runs himself.

In all, there have been 3,047 home runs this year, with probably only a small portion of those being of a predictable nature. On the other hand, there have been 1,700 stolen bases, and my guess would be that those steals are a bit more predictable because even fewer players attempt steals. (447 players have homered and averaged 6.8 as a group, while 317 players have stolen a base and averaged 5.4 as a group.)

And even though the correlations aren’t strong, we know a bit about who to pick on for steals. That same article shows that pitchers exhibit more control over the run game than catchers do.

With all of that said, here’s an updated list of the pitchers and catchers surrendering the most stolen bases this year.

The Daily Five
Taylor Jordan – $5,870
Jordan is the red light special on DraftStreet today (save for Donovan Hand in Coors) and has a clear path to profit as a cheap third starter on a daily squad. He draws the Mets, the league’s fourth worst offense against righties and a unit that strikes out at an above-average rate. Jordan has been decent in 29.1 innings after dominating in the mid-minors, but it’s his strikeout rate (4.3 K/9) that scares some off. His K-rate was much better (although still below average) in the minors and, more importantly, his swinging strike rate with Washington is indicative of a higher-K skill level.

Jason Castro – $6,289
You’ll want to double check the line-up before game time since Castro has played eight straight days, but he’s been DHing every few contests to keep his bat in the line-up. If he were to be benched, Carlos Corporan at $6,030 could fill in in a pinch. Anyway, Castro gets Todd Redmond with a strong wind to right field (we know this is good, if not conclusively). Castro is also basically my fantasy pet for the year.

Dustin Pedroia – $7,732
A huge wind blowing out over the left field fence and Jason Hammel on the bump for the O’s – if we could somehow quantify David Ortiz’ residual rage from yesterday, perhaps we’d pay the expectant price for him. Instead, we’ll pay Dustin Pedroia less than the average player ticket price and watch him play handball with the wall.

Joey Votto – $8,104
Based on the table above, you shouldn’t expect any running action against Chris Capuano. Slugging is a different thing, though, with Capuano stuck with a 5.03 ERA. The peripherals suggest better thanks to the K:BB ratio but after nine seasons of never beating a 10% HR/FB rate, I think he qualifies as having gopheritis. Votto is priced below the average player and is split-proof (if you wanted a righty specifically, Todd Frazier is similarly priced at third base).

Coco Crisp – $8,107
Tommy Hanson’s inclusion in the table above is no surprise – he’s allowed 1.65 stolen bases per nine innings for his career now. Beyond Coco Crisp, a fair choice but one with an expectant price, the A’s have a bunch of guys who steal a bit but not all that often (nobody other than Crisp has hit double digits) and none of them happen to hit righties particularly well. I tried to get cute with an Eric Sogard pick but the upside’s too low. So we roll with Crisp, even though there’s not much of a discount, because it’s tough not to run on Hanson (he’s been stolen on in seven of 10 starts this year).

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