The Daily Grind: 7-29-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. xBABIP Targets
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Wednesday Picks
  4. Table

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1. xBABIP Targets

Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman and Mike Podhorzer, we have updated xBABIP values with handpicked targets. Mike found five players who make for good trade targets and four players who represent sell high options. This isn’t just for traditional fantasy owners. DFSers will notice that these players have wonky prices¬†according to¬†our expectations for the rest of the season. The targets are relative values while the guys to sell are generally too pricey.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

All 15 games will be played late as part of a gigantic Tuesday night contest.

Chris Tillman has a tough matchup against the Angels at Camden Yards. The only reason you might want to avoid the game is the Angels’ sky high pricing. Good luck putting Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols into the same lineup.

The Cincinnati Reds aren’t a powerhouse offense, but I’m not sure they need to be against Trevor Cahill. He’s walking a ton of batters this season – over 11 percent – and his good strikeout rate is a product of the bullpen. In a comparable number of innings (small sample), he has a 5.16 FIP as a starter and a 2.92 FIP as a reliever. I’d consider getting him out of the rotation.

Nick Martinez has walked 9.9 percent of hitters. That’s not categorically bad, it’s just close to bad. He’s struck out the exact same number of hitters. That is bad. Add in a fun 32 percent ground ball rate, and you have a recipe for extra bases.

Edwin Jackson‘s getting smacked around like a guy who isn’t very good at pitching (there were a lot of cleverer ways that sentence could have gone…). He’ll face a lefty leaning Rockies lineup in Chicago. If only it were Coors Field.

Rapid Fire: Jose Quintana draws the Tigers matchup, although he’s a good enough pitcher to survive. The Cubs are good against left-handed pitching and Jorge de la Rosa is a lefty. The Athletics have a scary lineup for a lower-mid-tier pitcher like Scott Feldman.

Why I didn’t pickFrancisco Liriano: You can probably guess. The quality of his starts is utterly unpredictable. There are guys who often perform exactly as expected, guys who trick you/me into thinking they perform predictably, and guys who might qualify as psychic contrarians. Liriano is an enigma.

3. Wednesday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Jason Hammel has struggled since moving over to Oakland, but he’s still highly owned. If you do have the option to grab him, he’s up against Dallas Keuchel and the strikeout happy Astros.

Charlie Morton will start at baseball’s best venue for pitchers – AT&T Park. The Giants have a decent lineup, but Morton is good enough that the park should help more than the opposing lineup hurts.

You could try Jesse Hahn against the Cardinals. The big drawback with Hahn is he’s often relieved early in the game. He averages about 92 pitches per start.

Pitchers to Exploit: The Mets have a handful of right-handed hitters who would make for good picks against Kyle Kendrick. He (Kendrick) has been prone to first inning blowups, and he’s shown platoon splits in the past too.

Brad Hand draws a tough Nationals lineup which includes a couple real lefty mashers. Unfortunately, the game is in Miami, so power is likely to come in the form of doubles.

The Tigers will face perpetual exploit Hector Noesi.

Colby Lewis and his .399 BABIP draw the Yankees tomorrow. When a pitcher has an ERA over two points above his FIP, sometimes there’s something more to the problem than just lousy BABIP luck. Like maybe the BABIP is earned. We’ll see if regression feels like visiting Texas.

This Brett Anderson versus Travis Wood game seems like it should be a source of offense. Anderson has been surprisingly effective and the Rockies are a little short on their right-handed stalwarts (Troy Tulowitzki and Drew Stubbs in particular).

Hitters (power): Lucas Duda is the most available Met of consequence. He’s 51 percent owned on Yahoo and batting cleanup against righties.

Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa are probably the guys you can get against Hand, although they aren’t the ones you really want. Maybe Scott Hairston will start.

Seth Smith, c’est tout.

Another Chase Headley day? Sure why not.

You could try Derek Norris against Keuchel.

David Peralta is drawing some leadoff reps for the Diamondbacks, although he’s not really a speed or power threat.

I guess it’s worth noting that Danny Valencia is now a Blue Jay and will face Jon Lester tomorrow. Lester has been very good this year, but his projections call for him to be less good going forward.

Hitters (speed): Say hello again to Arismendy Alcantara and Justin Ruggiano. As I mentioned yesterday, they mix pop and speed.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Cleveland and Detroit have about a 50 percent chance for storms while Chicago has a 30 percent chance.

The Link. A couple of the games have low weather ratings. Those might be good places to target pitching.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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Madoff Withurmoni
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Madoff Withurmoni

Updated xBABIP available daily with the possibility of splits would be an awesome DFS tool.

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