Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Drew Rasmussen	84.1	7	5	22.3%	6.2%	2.45	3.45	1.5	3.0	33.4	43.2	155.1	12	9	22.5%	6.1%	2.95	3.50	2.7	4.0	52.6	69.8
12	Bryan Woo	95.1	7	4	23.1%	4.0%	3.12	3.59	1.7	2.3	30.4	40.0	176.1	12	8	23.1%	4.4%	3.37	3.73	3.1	3.3	50.5	65.5
13	José Soriano	93.0	5	5	20.3%	10.9%	3.39	3.22	2.2	2.0	24.5	37.7	178.0	10	10	20.9%	10.7%	3.59	3.54	3.6	3.4	43.9	62.9
14	Yusei Kikuchi	96.2	3	6	24.1%	10.7%	2.79	3.90	1.7	2.3	31.2	37.7	182.2	8	11	24.8%	9.7%	3.35	3.99	3.1	3.5	50.6	61.0
15	Logan Gilbert	40.1	2	2	38.0%	4.4%	3.12	2.95	0.9	1.0	14.2	21.1	131.1	8	6	30.0%	5.1%	3.29	3.23	2.7	2.5	41.5	60.0
16	Chris Bassitt	92.1	7	3	22.9%	5.3%	3.61	3.41	1.8	1.6	25.2	36.4	182.1	13	8	22.3%	6.3%	3.80	3.77	3.0	2.6	44.5	59.3
17	Kevin Gausman	94.0	6	6	23.9%	6.6%	4.21	3.71	1.4	1.0	18.0	26.2	190.0	12	12	23.7%	6.7%	4.07	3.83	2.8	2.1	39.5	53.7
18	Ryan Pepiot	94.2	5	6	24.2%	7.4%	3.04	4.06	1.2	2.5	29.4	34.1	174.2	10	11	24.3%	7.9%	3.50	4.20	2.2	3.3	46.6	52.4
19	Tyler Mahle	77.0	6	3	18.2%	8.8%	2.34	3.35	1.7	2.9	30.1	40.0	129.0	9	6	19.1%	8.5%	3.07	3.68	2.3	3.4	39.6	51.4
20	Clarke Schmidt	69.2	4	3	23.5%	9.4%	2.84	3.49	1.5	2.0	23.3	31.2	143.2	9	7	23.5%	8.8%	3.45	3.78	2.6	2.9	39.7	51.2

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Drew Rasmussen	84.1	7	5	22.3%	6.2%	2.45	3.45	1.5	3.0	33.4	43.2	155.1	12	9	22.5%	6.1%	2.95	3.50	2.7	4.0	52.6	69.8
12	Bryan Woo	95.1	7	4	23.1%	4.0%	3.12	3.59	1.7	2.3	30.4	40.0	176.1	12	8	23.1%	4.4%	3.37	3.73	3.1	3.3	50.5	65.5
13	José Soriano	93.0	5	5	20.3%	10.9%	3.39	3.22	2.2	2.0	24.5	37.7	178.0	10	10	20.9%	10.7%	3.59	3.54	3.6	3.4	43.9	62.9
14	Yusei Kikuchi	96.2	3	6	24.1%	10.7%	2.79	3.90	1.7	2.3	31.2	37.7	182.2	8	11	24.8%	9.7%	3.35	3.99	3.1	3.5	50.6	61.0
15	Logan Gilbert	40.1	2	2	38.0%	4.4%	3.12	2.95	0.9	1.0	14.2	21.1	131.1	8	6	30.0%	5.1%	3.29	3.23	2.7	2.5	41.5	60.0
16	Chris Bassitt	92.1	7	3	22.9%	5.3%	3.61	3.41	1.8	1.6	25.2	36.4	182.1	13	8	22.3%	6.3%	3.80	3.77	3.0	2.6	44.5	59.3
17	Kevin Gausman	94.0	6	6	23.9%	6.6%	4.21	3.71	1.4	1.0	18.0	26.2	190.0	12	12	23.7%	6.7%	4.07	3.83	2.8	2.1	39.5	53.7
18	Ryan Pepiot	94.2	5	6	24.2%	7.4%	3.04	4.06	1.2	2.5	29.4	34.1	174.2	10	11	24.3%	7.9%	3.50	4.20	2.2	3.3	46.6	52.4
19	Tyler Mahle	77.0	6	3	18.2%	8.8%	2.34	3.35	1.7	2.9	30.1	40.0	129.0	9	6	19.1%	8.5%	3.07	3.68	2.3	3.4	39.6	51.4
20	Clarke Schmidt	69.2	4	3	23.5%	9.4%	2.84	3.49	1.5	2.0	23.3	31.2	143.2	9	7	23.5%	8.8%	3.45	3.78	2.6	2.9	39.7	51.2

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	137.2	12	6	24.3%	10.5%	2.42	3.57	2.7	4.4	57.5	71.8
12	Sonny Gray	84.2	7	2	25.9%	4.9%	3.72	3.19	1.9	1.4	23.3	35.6	172.2	13	7	25.6%	5.6%	3.60	3.36	3.6	3.1	48.5	70.3
13	Nick Pivetta	91.0	8	2	27.9%	6.6%	3.36	3.25	2.1	1.9	29.6	42.2	175.0	13	7	27.8%	7.1%	3.55	3.61	3.5	3.2	51.2	68.6
14	Dylan Cease	87.1	3	6	29.2%	8.8%	4.43	3.01	2.2	0.7	14.6	29.1	180.1	9	11	28.9%	9.0%	3.89	3.27	4.2	2.5	43.1	67.8
15	Merrill Kelly	93.0	7	3	25.0%	6.7%	3.39	3.31	1.8	1.9	27.8	40.1	183.0	13	7	23.5%	6.9%	3.59	3.63	3.0	3.4	49.2	67.0
16	Jesús Luzardo	90.1	7	3	27.0%	7.5%	4.08	2.77	2.6	1.2	21.6	38.9	178.1	13	8	26.2%	7.7%	3.99	3.31	4.0	2.6	42.9	66.4
17	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	178.0	13	9	26.0%	8.9%	3.34	3.94	3.0	4.1	55.3	66.3
18	Matthew Boyd	91.2	7	3	22.3%	5.7%	2.65	3.55	1.8	2.5	34.0	43.7	165.2	12	7	22.6%	6.2%	3.21	3.73	3.0	3.6	51.1	65.2
19	David Peterson	90.2	5	3	20.6%	8.2%	2.98	3.37	1.7	2.2	28.1	39.5	167.2	10	7	20.8%	8.6%	3.33	3.64	2.7	3.3	46.6	62.6
20	Andrew Abbott	75.1	7	1	24.3%	6.8%	1.79	3.38	1.9	3.1	36.9	46.2	155.1	12	6	23.4%	7.5%	3.13	3.98	3.0	4.0	50.7	59.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Kodai Senga	73.2	7	3	23.9%	10.6%	1.47	3.18	1.7	3.4	38.8	49.6	137.2	12	6	24.3%	10.5%	2.42	3.57	2.7	4.4	57.5	71.8
12	Sonny Gray	84.2	7	2	25.9%	4.9%	3.72	3.19	1.9	1.4	23.3	35.6	172.2	13	7	25.6%	5.6%	3.60	3.36	3.6	3.1	48.5	70.3
13	Nick Pivetta	91.0	8	2	27.9%	6.6%	3.36	3.25	2.1	1.9	29.6	42.2	175.0	13	7	27.8%	7.1%	3.55	3.61	3.5	3.2	51.2	68.6
14	Dylan Cease	87.1	3	6	29.2%	8.8%	4.43	3.01	2.2	0.7	14.6	29.1	180.1	9	11	28.9%	9.0%	3.89	3.27	4.2	2.5	43.1	67.8
15	Merrill Kelly	93.0	7	3	25.0%	6.7%	3.39	3.31	1.8	1.9	27.8	40.1	183.0	13	7	23.5%	6.9%	3.59	3.63	3.0	3.4	49.2	67.0
16	Jesús Luzardo	90.1	7	3	27.0%	7.5%	4.08	2.77	2.6	1.2	21.6	38.9	178.1	13	8	26.2%	7.7%	3.99	3.31	4.0	2.6	42.9	66.4
17	Freddy Peralta	93.0	8	4	25.5%	8.8%	2.90	3.90	1.6	2.8	34.3	40.5	178.0	13	9	26.0%	8.9%	3.34	3.94	3.0	4.1	55.3	66.3
18	Matthew Boyd	91.2	7	3	22.3%	5.7%	2.65	3.55	1.8	2.5	34.0	43.7	165.2	12	7	22.6%	6.2%	3.21	3.73	3.0	3.6	51.1	65.2
19	David Peterson	90.2	5	3	20.6%	8.2%	2.98	3.37	1.7	2.2	28.1	39.5	167.2	10	7	20.8%	8.6%	3.33	3.64	2.7	3.3	46.6	62.6
20	Andrew Abbott	75.1	7	1	24.3%	6.8%	1.79	3.38	1.9	3.1	36.9	46.2	155.1	12	6	23.4%	7.5%	3.13	3.98	3.0	4.0	50.7	59.7

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG