Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	190.0	12	11	22.3%	8.2%	3.60	3.71	3.1	3.2	48.6	65.2
12	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.60	0.9	1.1	18.0	22.9	183.2	13	11	27.9%	8.9%	3.72	3.81	3.1	2.5	49.9	63.9
13	Bryan Woo	44.1	4	1	25.3%	4.6%	3.25	2.90	1.2	1.0	14.6	22.4	158.1	11	7	24.0%	5.1%	3.52	3.44	3.1	2.4	43.6	62.2
14	Joe Ryan	40.0	2	2	29.7%	3.2%	2.93	3.46	0.9	1.2	13.7	18.3	160.0	10	9	27.9%	4.8%	3.54	3.59	3.3	2.9	45.0	61.2
15	Luis Castillo	38.1	3	2	18.2%	9.7%	3.29	3.89	0.5	0.8	11.2	13.8	178.1	12	10	22.3%	7.9%	3.58	3.84	2.6	2.5	46.9	59.8
16	Kevin Gausman	40.0	2	3	24.3%	7.9%	3.83	3.46	0.7	0.5	8.7	13.3	186.0	12	11	23.6%	7.2%	3.82	3.76	2.9	2.4	44.1	59.3
17	Chris Bassitt	45.2	3	2	25.0%	4.1%	3.35	3.32	0.9	0.9	13.7	19.7	182.2	12	10	22.6%	6.7%	3.79	3.91	2.7	2.4	43.9	55.9
18	Jack Flaherty	38.0	1	4	29.1%	7.6%	3.79	3.42	0.6	0.5	8.6	13.2	163.0	9	12	26.5%	7.9%	3.75	3.66	2.6	2.1	40.6	55.8
19	Drew Rasmussen	35.0	1	3	23.2%	6.5%	3.09	3.71	0.5	0.9	9.7	12.8	145.0	8	8	23.2%	6.3%	3.41	3.51	2.2	2.4	39.2	55.1
20	Reese Olson	38.2	4	2	24.8%	10.6%	3.03	2.92	0.9	1.0	14.3	21.1	142.2	10	8	22.8%	9.0%	3.60	3.53	2.4	2.3	38.0	53.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Framber Valdez	48.0	2	4	22.4%	8.7%	3.94	3.81	0.7	0.8	9.4	13.1	190.0	12	11	22.3%	8.2%	3.60	3.71	3.1	3.2	48.6	65.2
12	Carlos Rodón	48.2	4	3	30.3%	10.6%	2.96	3.60	0.9	1.1	18.0	22.9	183.2	13	11	27.9%	8.9%	3.72	3.81	3.1	2.5	49.9	63.9
13	Bryan Woo	44.1	4	1	25.3%	4.6%	3.25	2.90	1.2	1.0	14.6	22.4	158.1	11	7	24.0%	5.1%	3.52	3.44	3.1	2.4	43.6	62.2
14	Joe Ryan	40.0	2	2	29.7%	3.2%	2.93	3.46	0.9	1.2	13.7	18.3	160.0	10	9	27.9%	4.8%	3.54	3.59	3.3	2.9	45.0	61.2
15	Luis Castillo	38.1	3	2	18.2%	9.7%	3.29	3.89	0.5	0.8	11.2	13.8	178.1	12	10	22.3%	7.9%	3.58	3.84	2.6	2.5	46.9	59.8
16	Kevin Gausman	40.0	2	3	24.3%	7.9%	3.83	3.46	0.7	0.5	8.7	13.3	186.0	12	11	23.6%	7.2%	3.82	3.76	2.9	2.4	44.1	59.3
17	Chris Bassitt	45.2	3	2	25.0%	4.1%	3.35	3.32	0.9	0.9	13.7	19.7	182.2	12	10	22.6%	6.7%	3.79	3.91	2.7	2.4	43.9	55.9
18	Jack Flaherty	38.0	1	4	29.1%	7.6%	3.79	3.42	0.6	0.5	8.6	13.2	163.0	9	12	26.5%	7.9%	3.75	3.66	2.6	2.1	40.6	55.8
19	Drew Rasmussen	35.0	1	3	23.2%	6.5%	3.09	3.71	0.5	0.9	9.7	12.8	145.0	8	8	23.2%	6.3%	3.41	3.51	2.2	2.4	39.2	55.1
20	Reese Olson	38.2	4	2	24.8%	10.6%	3.03	2.92	0.9	1.0	14.3	21.1	142.2	10	8	22.8%	9.0%	3.60	3.53	2.4	2.3	38.0	53.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Kodai Senga	38.2	4	2	23.0%	11.2%	1.16	3.03	0.9	1.9	21.8	28.2	161.2	13	8	24.2%	10.5%	3.06	3.67	2.8	3.8	55.2	70.1
12	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	177.1	13	9	26.9%	8.8%	3.35	3.76	3.3	4.0	55.4	70.0
13	Sonny Gray	46.1	4	1	25.3%	5.9%	3.50	3.60	0.8	0.8	13.9	18.5	182.1	13	8	25.3%	6.5%	3.55	3.57	3.3	3.3	51.2	70.0
14	Jesús Luzardo	47.0	3	0	26.6%	6.8%	2.11	2.32	1.6	1.7	20.6	32.0	175.0	11	7	25.4%	7.5%	3.45	3.48	3.6	3.4	50.0	69.9
15	Spencer Schwellenbach	47.1	1	3	22.2%	4.6%	3.61	3.36	0.8	0.8	10.0	16.0	184.1	10	9	23.0%	5.3%	3.61	3.53	3.2	3.3	45.7	65.5
16	Dylan Cease	40.1	1	2	27.0%	9.6%	4.91	3.35	0.9	0.0	4.0	9.1	181.1	10	9	27.8%	9.2%	3.82	3.50	3.7	2.6	45.1	65.3
17	Cristopher Sánchez	37.1	4	1	28.0%	8.9%	2.89	3.51	0.7	1.1	15.1	19.2	163.1	12	7	23.4%	7.3%	3.47	3.63	2.9	3.3	46.7	62.5
18	Zac Gallen	45.1	3	4	25.7%	11.0%	4.37	4.12	0.3	0.6	8.6	10.5	182.1	13	11	24.2%	8.8%	3.90	3.91	2.1	2.9	43.8	55.7
19	Matthew Liberatore	41.0	3	3	23.8%	3.8%	3.07	2.33	1.3	1.1	13.3	23.2	150.0	10	9	22.0%	6.9%	3.66	3.43	2.5	2.3	37.7	55.6
20	Corbin Burnes	32.2	1	1	20.0%	12.1%	3.58	5.13	-0.1	0.3	7.1	4.9	165.2	10	7	22.9%	8.3%	3.59	3.82	2.3	2.9	42.8	55.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Kodai Senga	38.2	4	2	23.0%	11.2%	1.16	3.03	0.9	1.9	21.8	28.2	161.2	13	8	24.2%	10.5%	3.06	3.67	2.8	3.8	55.2	70.1
12	Freddy Peralta	45.1	4	2	26.5%	8.3%	2.18	3.48	1.0	1.9	20.5	25.6	177.1	13	9	26.9%	8.8%	3.35	3.76	3.3	4.0	55.4	70.0
13	Sonny Gray	46.1	4	1	25.3%	5.9%	3.50	3.60	0.8	0.8	13.9	18.5	182.1	13	8	25.3%	6.5%	3.55	3.57	3.3	3.3	51.2	70.0
14	Jesús Luzardo	47.0	3	0	26.6%	6.8%	2.11	2.32	1.6	1.7	20.6	32.0	175.0	11	7	25.4%	7.5%	3.45	3.48	3.6	3.4	50.0	69.9
15	Spencer Schwellenbach	47.1	1	3	22.2%	4.6%	3.61	3.36	0.8	0.8	10.0	16.0	184.1	10	9	23.0%	5.3%	3.61	3.53	3.2	3.3	45.7	65.5
16	Dylan Cease	40.1	1	2	27.0%	9.6%	4.91	3.35	0.9	0.0	4.0	9.1	181.1	10	9	27.8%	9.2%	3.82	3.50	3.7	2.6	45.1	65.3
17	Cristopher Sánchez	37.1	4	1	28.0%	8.9%	2.89	3.51	0.7	1.1	15.1	19.2	163.1	12	7	23.4%	7.3%	3.47	3.63	2.9	3.3	46.7	62.5
18	Zac Gallen	45.1	3	4	25.7%	11.0%	4.37	4.12	0.3	0.6	8.6	10.5	182.1	13	11	24.2%	8.8%	3.90	3.91	2.1	2.9	43.8	55.7
19	Matthew Liberatore	41.0	3	3	23.8%	3.8%	3.07	2.33	1.3	1.1	13.3	23.2	150.0	10	9	22.0%	6.9%	3.66	3.43	2.5	2.3	37.7	55.6
20	Corbin Burnes	32.2	1	1	20.0%	12.1%	3.58	5.13	-0.1	0.3	7.1	4.9	165.2	10	7	22.9%	8.3%	3.59	3.82	2.3	2.9	42.8	55.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG