Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Carlos Rodón	146.2	12	7	27.6%	9.7%	3.25	3.85	2.2	2.9	48.7	59.4	192.2	15	10	27.3%	9.4%	3.46	3.88	2.9	3.4	58.8	72.0
12	Kris Bubic	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.87	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.8	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.93	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.1
13	Logan Gilbert	89.2	3	4	34.3%	6.4%	3.31	2.99	2.1	1.6	27.2	42.3	132.2	6	6	32.1%	6.2%	3.32	3.10	3.0	2.4	40.5	61.2
14	Trevor Rogers	69.1	5	2	22.9%	5.7%	1.43	2.45	2.5	3.7	34.7	50.5	110.1	7	4	21.6%	6.6%	2.45	3.11	3.0	4.2	41.7	58.7
15	José Soriano	143.0	8	9	20.6%	10.4%	3.84	3.50	2.9	2.1	31.0	47.0	184.0	10	11	20.8%	10.3%	3.82	3.61	3.6	2.7	40.3	58.6
16	Luis Castillo	142.1	8	6	21.0%	6.4%	3.48	3.93	2.0	2.3	36.7	45.7	185.1	11	8	21.4%	6.5%	3.54	4.00	2.7	2.9	47.3	57.6
17	Kevin Gausman	142.2	8	9	24.0%	7.0%	3.79	3.81	2.3	2.4	33.1	44.0	188.2	11	12	23.9%	6.9%	3.82	3.86	3.1	3.0	43.6	57.1
18	Michael Wacha	137.0	7	9	17.9%	6.6%	3.35	3.65	2.9	3.7	34.6	47.5	180.0	9	12	18.2%	6.7%	3.55	3.86	3.5	4.2	41.6	54.5
19	George Kirby	85.0	8	5	26.3%	5.8%	3.71	3.22	1.8	1.4	24.5	36.6	128.0	11	7	25.5%	5.2%	3.59	3.30	2.7	2.1	37.2	54.3
20	Yusei Kikuchi	143.0	6	8	24.0%	9.8%	3.52	4.08	2.2	2.5	36.4	43.1	185.0	8	10	24.3%	9.5%	3.65	4.11	2.9	3.0	44.9	53.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Carlos Rodón	146.2	12	7	27.6%	9.7%	3.25	3.85	2.2	2.9	48.7	59.4	192.2	15	10	27.3%	9.4%	3.46	3.88	2.9	3.4	58.8	72.0
12	Kris Bubic	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.87	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.8	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.93	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.1
13	Logan Gilbert	89.2	3	4	34.3%	6.4%	3.31	2.99	2.1	1.6	27.2	42.3	132.2	6	6	32.1%	6.2%	3.32	3.10	3.0	2.4	40.5	61.2
14	Trevor Rogers	69.1	5	2	22.9%	5.7%	1.43	2.45	2.5	3.7	34.7	50.5	110.1	7	4	21.6%	6.6%	2.45	3.11	3.0	4.2	41.7	58.7
15	José Soriano	143.0	8	9	20.6%	10.4%	3.84	3.50	2.9	2.1	31.0	47.0	184.0	10	11	20.8%	10.3%	3.82	3.61	3.6	2.7	40.3	58.6
16	Luis Castillo	142.1	8	6	21.0%	6.4%	3.48	3.93	2.0	2.3	36.7	45.7	185.1	11	8	21.4%	6.5%	3.54	4.00	2.7	2.9	47.3	57.6
17	Kevin Gausman	142.2	8	9	24.0%	7.0%	3.79	3.81	2.3	2.4	33.1	44.0	188.2	11	12	23.9%	6.9%	3.82	3.86	3.1	3.0	43.6	57.1
18	Michael Wacha	137.0	7	9	17.9%	6.6%	3.35	3.65	2.9	3.7	34.6	47.5	180.0	9	12	18.2%	6.7%	3.55	3.86	3.5	4.2	41.6	54.5
19	George Kirby	85.0	8	5	26.3%	5.8%	3.71	3.22	1.8	1.4	24.5	36.6	128.0	11	7	25.5%	5.2%	3.59	3.30	2.7	2.1	37.2	54.3
20	Yusei Kikuchi	143.0	6	8	24.0%	9.8%	3.52	4.08	2.2	2.5	36.4	43.1	185.0	8	10	24.3%	9.5%	3.65	4.11	2.9	3.0	44.9	53.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.69	2.6	3.1	36.1	54.1	117.1	7	5	30.6%	7.0%	2.68	2.85	3.3	3.9	45.5	67.0
12	Jesús Luzardo	139.0	11	6	26.9%	8.2%	4.21	3.11	3.5	2.0	31.3	52.7	180.0	14	8	26.5%	8.2%	4.10	3.30	4.3	2.7	42.1	66.1
13	David Peterson	136.1	7	5	20.5%	8.7%	3.30	3.49	2.5	2.9	36.9	52.2	179.1	10	7	20.6%	8.8%	3.41	3.62	3.1	3.5	47.3	64.7
14	Andrew Abbott	123.0	8	3	21.0%	7.0%	2.41	3.66	2.9	4.4	47.0	58.5	165.0	10	6	21.3%	7.2%	2.89	3.92	3.4	4.9	53.9	64.5
15	Ranger Suárez	112.1	8	6	21.7%	6.2%	3.28	3.26	2.8	3.1	33.3	48.7	155.1	11	8	21.7%	6.5%	3.36	3.38	3.6	4.0	44.7	64.0
16	MacKenzie Gore	138.0	5	12	28.3%	8.4%	4.04	3.50	2.9	2.5	28.5	43.9	180.0	8	15	27.8%	8.4%	3.95	3.59	3.7	3.3	40.1	58.2
17	Kodai Senga	99.2	7	4	22.9%	11.6%	2.35	4.01	1.3	3.2	40.3	45.7	141.2	10	6	23.4%	11.3%	2.80	4.06	1.9	3.9	50.7	57.6
18	Nick Lodolo	129.2	8	6	23.6%	4.6%	3.05	3.71	2.4	3.9	41.2	52.6	152.2	9	8	23.7%	4.8%	3.24	3.78	2.8	4.2	45.1	57.4
19	Dylan Cease	129.1	5	10	30.7%	9.1%	4.52	3.44	2.8	1.0	21.6	36.9	174.1	8	12	30.3%	9.1%	4.23	3.47	3.7	1.8	35.5	55.4
20	Adrian Morejon	55.0	9	4	25.8%	5.2%	1.96	1.95	2.0	1.5	30.0	45.6	71.0	10	5	25.9%	5.8%	2.28	2.18	2.2	1.8	34.7	53.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
11	Chris Sale	89.1	5	4	30.8%	7.0%	2.52	2.69	2.6	3.1	36.1	54.1	117.1	7	5	30.6%	7.0%	2.68	2.85	3.3	3.9	45.5	67.0
12	Jesús Luzardo	139.0	11	6	26.9%	8.2%	4.21	3.11	3.5	2.0	31.3	52.7	180.0	14	8	26.5%	8.2%	4.10	3.30	4.3	2.7	42.1	66.1
13	David Peterson	136.1	7	5	20.5%	8.7%	3.30	3.49	2.5	2.9	36.9	52.2	179.1	10	7	20.6%	8.8%	3.41	3.62	3.1	3.5	47.3	64.7
14	Andrew Abbott	123.0	8	3	21.0%	7.0%	2.41	3.66	2.9	4.4	47.0	58.5	165.0	10	6	21.3%	7.2%	2.89	3.92	3.4	4.9	53.9	64.5
15	Ranger Suárez	112.1	8	6	21.7%	6.2%	3.28	3.26	2.8	3.1	33.3	48.7	155.1	11	8	21.7%	6.5%	3.36	3.38	3.6	4.0	44.7	64.0
16	MacKenzie Gore	138.0	5	12	28.3%	8.4%	4.04	3.50	2.9	2.5	28.5	43.9	180.0	8	15	27.8%	8.4%	3.95	3.59	3.7	3.3	40.1	58.2
17	Kodai Senga	99.2	7	4	22.9%	11.6%	2.35	4.01	1.3	3.2	40.3	45.7	141.2	10	6	23.4%	11.3%	2.80	4.06	1.9	3.9	50.7	57.6
18	Nick Lodolo	129.2	8	6	23.6%	4.6%	3.05	3.71	2.4	3.9	41.2	52.6	152.2	9	8	23.7%	4.8%	3.24	3.78	2.8	4.2	45.1	57.4
19	Dylan Cease	129.1	5	10	30.7%	9.1%	4.52	3.44	2.8	1.0	21.6	36.9	174.1	8	12	30.3%	9.1%	4.23	3.47	3.7	1.8	35.5	55.4
20	Adrian Morejon	55.0	9	4	25.8%	5.2%	1.96	1.95	2.0	1.5	30.0	45.6	71.0	10	5	25.9%	5.8%	2.28	2.18	2.2	1.8	34.7	53.0

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG