Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	148.1	13	4	31.0%	6.6%	2.24	2.48	4.8	5.7	68.5	101.7	194.1	17	6	30.9%	6.7%	2.41	2.60	6.1	7.0	86.2	127.2
2	Tarik Skubal	140.2	11	3	34.0%	3.6%	2.18	1.95	5.7	5.7	65.4	105.3	195.2	16	5	33.2%	4.0%	2.25	2.16	7.4	7.5	89.8	140.7
3	Nathan Eovaldi	111.0	10	3	26.4%	4.8%	1.38	2.37	3.7	5.5	59.6	85.9	162.0	13	6	25.4%	5.4%	2.11	2.82	4.7	6.2	72.1	102.3
4	Hunter Brown	131.0	9	5	30.4%	7.6%	2.47	2.94	3.6	4.8	54.0	76.7	184.0	13	8	29.4%	7.8%	2.74	3.13	4.7	6.0	70.6	98.5
5	Max Fried	139.0	12	4	23.3%	6.2%	2.78	3.05	3.3	3.0	51.7	74.1	195.0	16	7	23.6%	6.5%	2.91	3.18	4.5	4.2	69.3	98.0
6	Framber Valdez	140.0	11	5	25.4%	7.9%	2.83	2.89	3.8	4.4	51.4	76.5	198.0	15	8	25.2%	7.9%	2.95	3.06	5.1	5.6	69.5	101.3
7	Jacob deGrom	128.2	10	4	27.1%	5.8%	2.80	3.65	2.5	4.1	47.8	59.9	171.2	14	6	27.4%	6.0%	2.88	3.61	3.4	5.2	63.2	80.2
8	Joe Ryan	127.1	10	5	28.3%	5.0%	2.83	3.15	3.1	3.8	47.8	66.9	179.1	14	8	27.8%	5.2%	3.01	3.37	4.1	4.8	63.5	85.9
9	Bryan Woo	140.0	9	6	24.8%	4.6%	3.02	3.72	2.4	3.3	45.6	57.8	186.0	13	8	24.9%	4.7%	3.05	3.72	3.2	4.2	61.4	77.5
10	Kris Bubic	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.87	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.8	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.93	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	148.1	13	4	31.0%	6.6%	2.24	2.48	4.8	5.7	68.5	101.7	194.1	17	6	30.9%	6.7%	2.41	2.60	6.1	7.0	86.2	127.2
2	Tarik Skubal	140.2	11	3	34.0%	3.6%	2.18	1.95	5.7	5.7	65.4	105.3	195.2	16	5	33.2%	4.0%	2.25	2.16	7.4	7.5	89.8	140.7
3	Nathan Eovaldi	111.0	10	3	26.4%	4.8%	1.38	2.37	3.7	5.5	59.6	85.9	162.0	13	6	25.4%	5.4%	2.11	2.82	4.7	6.2	72.1	102.3
4	Hunter Brown	131.0	9	5	30.4%	7.6%	2.47	2.94	3.6	4.8	54.0	76.7	184.0	13	8	29.4%	7.8%	2.74	3.13	4.7	6.0	70.6	98.5
5	Max Fried	139.0	12	4	23.3%	6.2%	2.78	3.05	3.3	3.0	51.7	74.1	195.0	16	7	23.6%	6.5%	2.91	3.18	4.5	4.2	69.3	98.0
6	Framber Valdez	140.0	11	5	25.4%	7.9%	2.83	2.89	3.8	4.4	51.4	76.5	198.0	15	8	25.2%	7.9%	2.95	3.06	5.1	5.6	69.5	101.3
7	Jacob deGrom	128.2	10	4	27.1%	5.8%	2.80	3.65	2.5	4.1	47.8	59.9	171.2	14	6	27.4%	6.0%	2.88	3.61	3.4	5.2	63.2	80.2
8	Joe Ryan	127.1	10	5	28.3%	5.0%	2.83	3.15	3.1	3.8	47.8	66.9	179.1	14	8	27.8%	5.2%	3.01	3.37	4.1	4.8	63.5	85.9
9	Bryan Woo	140.0	9	6	24.8%	4.6%	3.02	3.72	2.4	3.3	45.6	57.8	186.0	13	8	24.9%	4.7%	3.05	3.72	3.2	4.2	61.4	77.5
10	Kris Bubic	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.87	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.8	116.1	8	7	24.4%	8.2%	2.55	2.93	3.3	3.7	44.8	65.1

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	144.0	7	8	28.9%	6.1%	1.94	2.32	5.0	6.3	64.2	99.0	193.0	11	10	29.0%	6.3%	2.15	2.49	6.3	7.8	83.6	126.8
2	Cristopher Sánchez	138.2	10	3	26.0%	6.1%	2.40	2.82	3.8	5.5	56.8	82.7	190.2	14	5	25.5%	6.2%	2.60	2.99	5.1	6.8	74.1	106.1
3	Zack Wheeler	139.2	9	5	33.5%	5.1%	2.64	2.86	3.9	4.8	56.0	81.5	198.2	14	7	32.3%	5.5%	2.72	2.98	5.5	6.6	78.7	112.3
4	Matthew Boyd	130.2	11	4	23.0%	5.6%	2.34	3.18	3.2	4.5	54.1	73.3	179.2	13	6	23.0%	6.0%	2.76	3.46	3.9	5.2	64.4	85.3
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	122.0	10	7	28.5%	8.0%	2.51	2.90	3.5	4.1	50.9	72.5	174.0	14	9	28.1%	7.9%	2.69	3.05	4.7	5.4	68.6	96.6
6	Nick Pivetta	128.2	11	3	27.0%	6.3%	2.73	3.20	3.1	3.8	49.9	68.5	181.2	15	6	26.8%	6.6%	3.02	3.46	4.0	4.7	64.2	85.2
7	Robbie Ray	142.0	9	5	25.7%	9.5%	2.85	3.69	1.9	4.0	49.8	62.5	191.0	12	8	25.5%	9.4%	3.11	3.79	2.5	4.6	61.5	76.5
8	Freddy Peralta	130.2	13	5	25.9%	9.0%	3.03	3.85	2.3	3.8	48.4	57.8	181.2	17	8	26.3%	9.0%	3.17	3.91	3.1	4.7	63.7	75.7
9	Logan Webb	147.1	10	8	26.9%	5.5%	3.24	2.53	4.0	3.1	47.2	79.5	205.1	14	11	26.0%	5.5%	3.24	2.73	5.3	4.3	64.9	105.3
10	Andrew Abbott	115.1	8	2	21.0%	7.4%	2.34	3.79	2.5	4.2	45.6	54.6	161.1	11	5	21.3%	7.6%	2.96	4.09	3.0	4.6	53.0	60.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Paul Skenes	144.0	7	8	28.9%	6.1%	1.94	2.32	5.0	6.3	64.2	99.0	193.0	11	10	29.0%	6.3%	2.15	2.49	6.3	7.8	83.6	126.8
2	Cristopher Sánchez	138.2	10	3	26.0%	6.1%	2.40	2.82	3.8	5.5	56.8	82.7	190.2	14	5	25.5%	6.2%	2.60	2.99	5.1	6.8	74.1	106.1
3	Zack Wheeler	139.2	9	5	33.5%	5.1%	2.64	2.86	3.9	4.8	56.0	81.5	198.2	14	7	32.3%	5.5%	2.72	2.98	5.5	6.6	78.7	112.3
4	Matthew Boyd	130.2	11	4	23.0%	5.6%	2.34	3.18	3.2	4.5	54.1	73.3	179.2	13	6	23.0%	6.0%	2.76	3.46	3.9	5.2	64.4	85.3
5	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	122.0	10	7	28.5%	8.0%	2.51	2.90	3.5	4.1	50.9	72.5	174.0	14	9	28.1%	7.9%	2.69	3.05	4.7	5.4	68.6	96.6
6	Nick Pivetta	128.2	11	3	27.0%	6.3%	2.73	3.20	3.1	3.8	49.9	68.5	181.2	15	6	26.8%	6.6%	3.02	3.46	4.0	4.7	64.2	85.2
7	Robbie Ray	142.0	9	5	25.7%	9.5%	2.85	3.69	1.9	4.0	49.8	62.5	191.0	12	8	25.5%	9.4%	3.11	3.79	2.5	4.6	61.5	76.5
8	Freddy Peralta	130.2	13	5	25.9%	9.0%	3.03	3.85	2.3	3.8	48.4	57.8	181.2	17	8	26.3%	9.0%	3.17	3.91	3.1	4.7	63.7	75.7
9	Logan Webb	147.1	10	8	26.9%	5.5%	3.24	2.53	4.0	3.1	47.2	79.5	205.1	14	11	26.0%	5.5%	3.24	2.73	5.3	4.3	64.9	105.3
10	Andrew Abbott	115.1	8	2	21.0%	7.4%	2.34	3.79	2.5	4.2	45.6	54.6	161.1	11	5	21.3%	7.6%	2.96	4.09	3.0	4.6	53.0	60.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG