2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

Are the Cubs back to their mid-2010s form? That’s a bit of a stretch, but these Cubs showed they have a live pulse, not falling out of playoff contention until the final week of the 2023 season. Cody Bellinger, one of the reasons the offense was so potent (third in the National League in runs scored), turned out to be one of the best pillow-contract signings of all time. Perhaps a little too good, as it was enough for Bellinger to decline his side of a $25 million mutual option for 2024. The Cubs could still sign Bellinger, but even if they do, it’s not a great bet they’ll get the same production as last year. ZiPS is a bit more optimistic than Steamer, but it still projects a returning Bellinger to “give back” some of his contact and a significant chunk of his power.

Still, losing that offense hurts. The Cubs haven’t directly replaced it, but they’ve at least avoided any gaping holes. If the season started today, you’d probably see a lot of Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and while ZiPS doesn’t project him to match Bellinger’s output, it’s a respectable projection that cushions the blow of a Bellinger loss. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner combine to form one of the best middle infields in baseball — and a surprisingly underrated one. ZiPS is also surprisingly bullish on third base, regardless of whatever combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Michael Busch end up playing there.

First base was a tricky spot, and I’ve gotten the distinct impression that the Cubs aren’t particularly wedded to the idea of just sticking Matt Mervis there for 140 games. I expect he’ll get his chances, but in a more complementary role that shields him from lefties as much as possible. The late trade for Busch lends credence to the notion that they didn’t feel Mervilous (sorry) about their situation at the cold corner, as do the rumors of them exploring first base options like Rhys Hoskins.

ZiPS doesn’t see any offensive prospects roaring to make a big impact this year. The computer likes Kevin Alcántara over the long haul, projecting a 25-WAR career, but it doesn’t see him breaking through and earning much of that in 2024. ZiPS is less into James Triantos, but he’s also young and the long-term error bars in the projections are massive.

Pitchers

This section looks a lot sunnier than it did last week! Shōta Imanaga is my favorite signing of this offseason and I think it’s probably the computer’s favorite as well (ZiPS utilizes DeltaGraphs stats for NPB players). I suspect some teams are going to kick themselves that the Cubs got Imanaga this cheaply — and if my suspicion is wrong, I’m sure someone will remind me in a year or two! ZiPS is projecting a skosh of regression from Justin Steele, but some of that is simply the realities of projecting pitchers; both Imanaga and Steele fall just out of the top 10 in NL starter projections, but with inning counts that are a little behind the league’s elite.

Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks both project as useful, but they’re hardly forecast as significant pluses. I feel like the Cubs must still be planning on an addition to the rotation. I’m not sure that means Jordan Montgomery, who I expect is going to get a pretty healthy contract, but unlike with the position players, there are still some interesting pitchers out there.

The bullpen projects as very middle-of-the-road in 2024. Steamer’s more positive, with the bigger differences being that ZiPS is giving a little more side-eye to Mark Leiter Jr. and Luke Little. Adbert Alzolay’s projection breaks down as a 3.00 ERA as a reliever and a 4.43 ERA as a starter.

I’m considering adding another table next offseason for the pitchers who ZiPS projects with time as both a starter and a reliever. Along these lines, one guy where you might want to look past the projection is Ben Brown. ZiPS thinks that Brown would be a dynamite late reliever, projecting a 3.20 ERA if he were used that way. He’s probably the eighth or ninth starter in the rotation right now, and a more focused relief role might help him shore up his command.

There’s still a lot of winter to go, but ZiPS sees the Cubs as most likely finishing in the 83-88 win range or thereabouts. Chicago is the last NL Central team to go and, probably to nobody’s surprise, ZiPS doesn’t see a big dog in the division. As of right now, it sees the Cardinals as a very slight favorite, the Brewers and Cubs close behind, the Reds a few games back of that, and the Pirates in the mid-to-high-70s in wins, though not so far behind that it would be the craziest thing in the world for them to contend in the division.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.